WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Johnson +2

[MT Treasurer]

Feeling very good about WI/NC/NV (all Lean R), but it’s going to come down to AZ/GA/PA. Republicans need one of those three races to win the majority, and unfortunately, they’ve nominated candidates likely to underperform generic R by a few points in all three states. However, I still think they can win one of those states (probably PA?), maybe two on a really good night, but they’ll need a favorable environment to pull it off.

[MT Treasurer]

Feeling very good about WI/NC/NV (all Lean R), but it’s going to come down to AZ/GA/PA. Republicans need one of those three races to win the majority, and unfortunately, they’ve nominated candidates likely to underperform generic R by a few points in all three states. However, I still think they can win one of those states (probably PA?), maybe two on a really good night, but they’ll need a favorable environment to pull it off.

Republicans are down by more than 2020 in AZ and PA, Masters and Oz have choked and it looks unlikely to happen there. So it could come down to GA again but Walker will struggle to win a majority or a runoff. Democrats are more likely to win, even though an upset is possible.

I don’t really trust polls showing Republicans in a much better position in GA than in PA/AZ. I could see the GA race going to a runoff, but it’s much more likely one of Masters/Oz wins in November than that Walker wins a runoff election in which turnout dynamics dramatically favor Democrats. I think a runoff in GA-SEN would look a lot like those special elections (it could be closer if the race were to decide Senate control, but even then it would be a major uphill battle for Walker).

[MT Treasurer]

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

Yes, it used to be that state-level runoffs were four weeks after Election Day while federal race runoffs had the longer delay.  Now they're both four weeks after.

That’s very interesting, didn’t know that. Wasn’t the 2008 runoff four weaks after Election Day, though?

I still don’t see why a *shortened runoff* would benefit Republicans, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

Yes, it used to be that state-level runoffs were four weeks after Election Day while federal race runoffs had the longer delay.  Now they're both four weeks after.

It seems like they mess with the runoff law a lot. The Senate runoff in 2008 was four weeks after the general election and only three weeks after in 1992.

Yes, they also mess a lot with the run-off requirement. After Wyche Fowler lost the 1992 runoff, Democrats changed the threshold from 50% to 45%, which allowed Max Cleland to avoid a runoff in 1996. After Republicans took control of the governor's mansion and won the legislature, they changed it back to 50%, which they probably regret today.