WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Johnson +2
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  WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Johnson +2
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Author Topic: WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Johnson +2  (Read 764 times)
MT Treasurer
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« Reply #25 on: September 23, 2022, 04:04:15 PM »

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

Yes, it used to be that state-level runoffs were four weeks after Election Day while federal race runoffs had the longer delay.  Now they're both four weeks after.

It seems like they mess with the runoff law a lot. The Senate runoff in 2008 was four weeks after the general election and only three weeks after in 1992.

Yes, they also mess a lot with the run-off requirement. After Wyche Fowler lost the 1992 runoff, Democrats changed the threshold from 50% to 45%, which allowed Max Cleland to avoid a runoff in 1996. After Republicans took control of the governor's mansion and won the legislature, they changed it back to 50%, which they probably regret today.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #26 on: September 23, 2022, 04:22:17 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2022, 04:26:26 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

This TRAFALGAR is highly partisan they have Biden Approvals on their network at 40% not 46/53 that's how they are getting these results and they underpolled Kathy Hochul 47/43 and she was up 50/35, that's how you know they are biased

I almost changed Ny to R because it's a Midterm, it would be different if Impact and TRAFALGAR and Change Emerson are lining up, Emerson and TRAFALGAR are showing an R bias in OH, but they're not lining up especially in OH Nan W isn't down 20 she is down 7 as I predicted, Change poll has her down 7 that's how Ryan is gonna win because DeWine won by 3 and Brown won anything under double digit DeWine can hurt Vance
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #27 on: September 23, 2022, 05:11:22 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2022, 05:26:28 PM by Progressive Pessimist »

I knew that we were due for a Trafalgar poll of Wisconsin sooner or later, and one that would have Johnson leading this time, no doubt. But that being said, I expected something more absurd like Johnson+5 at this point. Barnes obviously peaked in August but he could perhaps keep it closer than in either of Johnson's previous elections.
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« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2022, 05:23:37 PM »

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

Yes, it used to be that state-level runoffs were four weeks after Election Day while federal race runoffs had the longer delay.  Now they're both four weeks after.

It seems like they mess with the runoff law a lot. The Senate runoff in 2008 was four weeks after the general election and only three weeks after in 1992.

Yes, they also mess a lot with the run-off requirement. After Wyche Fowler lost the 1992 runoff, Democrats changed the threshold from 50% to 45%, which allowed Max Cleland to avoid a runoff in 1996. After Republicans took control of the governor's mansion and won the legislature, they changed it back to 50%, which they probably regret today.

Politicians are ridiculously bad at the maxim “never fight yesterday’s war.”
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Trumbull County #Populist for Tim Ryan
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« Reply #29 on: September 23, 2022, 05:27:18 PM »

According to Trafalgar, WI and NY will vote 6 points apart. This is totally believable, Johnson is slightly favored, but not because of this poll.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #30 on: September 23, 2022, 05:27:23 PM »

I knew that we were due for a Trafalgar poll of Wisconsin sooner or later, and one that would have Johnson leading this time, no doubt. But that being said, I expected something more absurd like Johnson+5 at this point. Barnes obviously peaked August but he could perhaps keep it closer than in either of Johnson's previous elections.

Lol a the other polls are showing D leads they are purposely trying to Dent Biden Approvals and you know McLaughlin, Rassy and TRAFALGAR are part of Fox news and Maga I stopped watching Fox they are Maga only MSNBC

It would be different if they were lining up with other polls Emerson has an R biased too in WI, OH
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #31 on: September 23, 2022, 07:27:45 PM »

Given Trafalgar's recent lowballing of many candidates in this area (from Fetterman to Shapiro to Whitmer), this is a lot better than I was expecting for Barnes.

Tossup race is tossup.
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« Reply #32 on: September 23, 2022, 09:32:27 PM »

Given the source, a pretty good poll for Barnes.

Opinions on "Trashfalgar" (as you call it) are set in stone at this point, but should we then disregard Marquette, Civiqs, and Emerson, all of which have shown Johnson leading? Especially Marquette, which most consider to be "the gold standard" of Wisconsin here?

Marquette is really the only poll in Wisconsin I take seriously.

Yeah, some specific pollsters really know how to nail their states. In Wisconsin, that's Marquette. In Iowa, you have Ann Selzer (I don't think anyone here has to bring up her final poll before the 2020 election). California used to have the Field Poll, but that unfortunately shut down a few years ago.

With that said, I think most of us expected a result like this from this poll, especially considering their previous one. I don't expect this race to break one way or the other in polling. It'll likely be a toss-up to the end, perhaps slightly tilting one way or the other.

Selzer is pretty much unparalleled.
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Pericles
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« Reply #33 on: September 24, 2022, 12:35:23 AM »

Feeling very good about WI/NC/NV (all Lean R), but it’s going to come down to AZ/GA/PA. Republicans need one of those three races to win the majority, and unfortunately, they’ve nominated candidates likely to underperform generic R by a few points in all three states. However, I still think they can win one of those states (probably PA?), maybe two on a really good night, but they’ll need a favorable environment to pull it off.

Republicans are down by more than 2020 in AZ and PA, Masters and Oz have choked and it looks unlikely to happen there. So it could come down to GA again but Walker will struggle to win a majority or a runoff. Democrats are more likely to win, even though an upset is possible.

I don’t really trust polls showing Republicans in a much better position in GA than in PA/AZ. I could see the GA race going to a runoff, but it’s much more likely one of Masters/Oz wins in November than that Walker wins a runoff election in which turnout dynamics dramatically favor Democrats. I think a runoff in GA-SEN would look a lot like those special elections (it could be closer if the race were to decide Senate control, but even then it would be a major uphill battle for Walker).

My point was that it's hard to see Oz and Masters actually winning. I'm not saying Walker does or doesn't have a strong chance. If he doesn't, then obviously the Senate is going to stay Democratic.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #34 on: September 24, 2022, 05:11:20 AM »

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

Yes, it used to be that state-level runoffs were four weeks after Election Day while federal race runoffs had the longer delay.  Now they're both four weeks after.

It seems like they mess with the runoff law a lot. The Senate runoff in 2008 was four weeks after the general election and only three weeks after in 1992.

Yes, they also mess a lot with the run-off requirement. After Wyche Fowler lost the 1992 runoff, Democrats changed the threshold from 50% to 45%, which allowed Max Cleland to avoid a runoff in 1996. After Republicans took control of the governor's mansion and won the legislature, they changed it back to 50%, which they probably regret today.

Oh, I missed that one. History is certainly replete with laws such as these that backfire on those who enact them.


I certainly will never doubt her again.

You're probably too young to know of the gold standard in California that was the Field Poll.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #35 on: September 24, 2022, 05:18:20 AM »

Users are still going by polls and because TRAFALGAR has Rs ahead it's the Gold standard I knew as soon as this poll came out, users were gonna Doom but Biden is at 49/49 approvals, if he is that we win WI because Biden won WI with 50% of the vote last time

Users don't learn what happened in NY and AK AK was a red state and we won it Emerson and TRAFALGAR are right wing on WI and OH be ause the other polls in other states are lining up with others except WI and OH just like we are supposed to lose KS and  Emerson has Kelly ahead

We aren't gonna lose WI if Biden is at 50% because we won it in 2020 with the 303 map

TRAFALGAR underpolled Kathy Hochul 47/43 she is ahead 5035 and on their website they have Biden at 40% approval if Biden was really at 40% Kelly and Fetterman would be losing
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David Hume
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« Reply #36 on: September 26, 2022, 12:36:06 AM »

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

Yes, it used to be that state-level runoffs were four weeks after Election Day while federal race runoffs had the longer delay.  Now they're both four weeks after.

It seems like they mess with the runoff law a lot. The Senate runoff in 2008 was four weeks after the general election and only three weeks after in 1992.

Yes, they also mess a lot with the run-off requirement. After Wyche Fowler lost the 1992 runoff, Democrats changed the threshold from 50% to 45%, which allowed Max Cleland to avoid a runoff in 1996. After Republicans took control of the governor's mansion and won the legislature, they changed it back to 50%, which they probably regret today.
I find it hard to understand why they did not get rid of the run off this year.
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #37 on: September 26, 2022, 10:35:25 AM »

Not a bad poll for Barnes, given the source. What more concerns me is the trendline; the previous Trafalgar WI poll had him up. Other pollsters also found Johnson slightly ahead recently, so it's very much possible the tide on this race has at least slightly turned in RoJo's favor.

Still possible Barnes wins, though I was skeptical from the beginning that this one was going to flip. It's most likely not happening.
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