NY-19: Triton Polling for Freedom Council USA (R) - Molinaro +9
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  NY-19: Triton Polling for Freedom Council USA (R) - Molinaro +9		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: NY-19: Triton Polling for Freedom Council USA (R) - Molinaro +9  (Read 649 times)
Devils30
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« on: September 25, 2022, 06:43:10 PM »
« edited: September 26, 2022, 07:35:34 AM by GeorgiaModerate »
https://nypost.com/2022/09/25/gops-molinaro-leads-dem-riley-in-hudson-valley-race-that-could-tip-house-control-poll/

Just in case you didn’t take in enough junk in August, here you go. I’m sure Molinaro is winning by 9 with Dutchess out and Ithaca in.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2022, 06:58:00 PM »
Ah yes, Triton, who also believed Molinaro was winning by 10%+ in the NY-19 special lol.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2022, 07:36:16 PM »
Yea sure just like 39% Biden Approvals we have the Early votes
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Holmes
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2022, 08:03:25 PM »
Looks familiar.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2022, 08:23:59 PM »
Yeah Molinaro was supposed to win by 8 in the other election, No
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free my dawg
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2022, 08:55:24 PM »
>triton
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2022, 12:32:56 AM »
Also from the NY Post lol.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2022, 07:37:13 AM »

Eh, they just reported it.  The poll was sponsored by "the pro-Molinaro Freedom Council USA" (I've updated the thread title to reflect this).
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Spectator
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« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2022, 11:24:49 AM »
Yea, the district that is three points bluer and much more inelastic with the addition of Ithaca is going to vote for the guy that lost in the much more favorable territory only a month ago. Sure checks out
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2022, 12:26:13 PM »
« Edited: September 26, 2022, 09:23:31 PM by RussFeingoldWasRobbed »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 25, 2022, 06:58:00 PM
Ah yes, Triton, who also believed Molinaro was winning by 10%+ in the NY-19 special lol.
Trafalgar overestimated Republicans in the California governor recall. They were spot on in NJ VA.
The idea that polls will always overestimate one party is not backed up by data
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2022, 05:55:50 PM »
Even if I were to buy Molinaro ahead, this is too much and would have to be the Republicans get exact 2020 turnout on election day while Democrats don't theory coming true.

Not to repeat what many others are saying, but this district with more college towns and none of Molinaro's Dutchess base really isn't going to be an easy win for him if he lost the special election in a more Republican district. He can win, but if both the NY-19 and NY-23 special elections are any indication, Riley might be slightly favored if he can capitalize on Binghamton and Ithaca turnout. That will be a lot to overcome.
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