NV SEN InsiderAdvantage(R) Laxalt+3

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1573064656339763201

[Calthrina950]

We're getting a flood of polls it seems (Trafalgar, Data for Progress, Big Data, Insider Advantage), all of which have Laxalt leading. Nevada is the most vulnerable Democratic-held seat. That much is clear.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I doubt I'll move this to Lean R given the history of polling misses in Nevada, but it's certainly not looking good.

[Devils30]

It’s nothing different than every Nevada race. The Rs always poll well, see the Heller +7 gems in 2018.

[MT Treasurer]

The thing that should really worry Democrats here is how consistently low Cortez Masto's raw percentage has been compared to that of Kelly, Fetterman, and Warnock, all of whom have been hovering around/close to 50% in the polling average.

It’s nothing different than every Nevada race. The Rs always poll well, see the Heller +7 gems in 2018.

Deliberately misleading-

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heck_vs_cortez_masto-5982.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_biden-6867.html

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The thing that should really worry Democrats here is how consistently low Cortez Masto's raw percentage has been compared to that of Kelly, Fetterman, and Warnock, all of whom have been hovering around/close to 50% in the polling average.

It’s nothing different than every Nevada race. The Rs always poll well, see the Heller +7 gems in 2018.

Deliberately misleading-

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heck_vs_cortez_masto-5982.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_biden-6867.html

Agree with the raw percentage issue, though if there is one thing that maybe saves Cortez Masto it's the fact that Nevada usually has a pretty large percentage of third party/none of the above votes. That being said, I've had this as a narrow Laxalt win for a while and I see no reason to change that call.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It’s nothing different than every Nevada race. The Rs always poll well, see the Heller +7 gems in 2018.

If this is the only saving grace we have in this state, then we really are f***ed here. All eyes on Georgia-that's where the control of the Senate is going to be determined.

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1573066062593130496

[citizenZ]

Wow those Hispanic numbers are insane.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow those Hispanic numbers are insane.

And with the Democrat being the Hispanic. Ouch.

[Matty]

Wow those Hispanic numbers are insane.

I wouldn’t read too much into the crosstabs

What you should be worried about if you’re CCM is that she’s polling well below 50

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They already have a thread

[Lief 🗽]

Hispanics aren't even a category in the poll? I'm begging you people to stop paying attention to this trash, especially in a state like NV.

[Devils30]

Look at September 2016 and October 2018 on RCP. Everyone needs to chill. CCM could win this by 4 for all we know.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Also pretty sure CCM will win a higher % of blacks than whites %....just my humble opinion.

[wbrocks67]

.... are people ignoring that this is an R internal? and not only that - but somehow Laxalt is only up 3 while winning Indies by 30%+?

[Calthrina950]

Look at September 2016 and October 2018 on RCP. Everyone needs to chill. CCM could win this by 4 for all we know.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Also pretty sure CCM will win a higher % of blacks than whites %....just my humble opinion.

So Masto is leading right now? Should we assume that all four of the recent polls in Nevada are wrong and that she's actually ahead by a few percentage points? The polling errors of 2016 and 2018 are repeating themselves, if this is is the case.

[MT Treasurer]

*snip*

So Masto is leading right now? Should we assume that all four of the recent polls in Nevada are wrong and that she's actually ahead by a few percentage points? The polling errors of 2016 and 2018 are repeating themselves, if this is is the case.

There was no polling error in Masto's 2016 race, please stop repeating this false talking point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada#Polling_2

[wbrocks67]

Look at September 2016 and October 2018 on RCP. Everyone needs to chill. CCM could win this by 4 for all we know.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Also pretty sure CCM will win a higher % of blacks than whites %....just my humble opinion.

So Masto is leading right now? Should we assume that all four of the recent polls in Nevada are wrong and that she's actually ahead by a few percentage points? The polling errors of 2016 and 2018 are repeating themselves, if this is is the case.

To be fair, it hasn't been the most high quality group of pollsters so I'd like to wait to get more. 2020 was the anomaly with NV polling, so I would not be surprised if we reverted back to the polling being iffy there.

Honestly, the biggest n= in this poll has Masto and Laxalt nearly tied among Whites. If that's the case, then Masto is doing pretty great lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

*snip*

So Masto is leading right now? Should we assume that all four of the recent polls in Nevada are wrong and that she's actually ahead by a few percentage points? The polling errors of 2016 and 2018 are repeating themselves, if this is is the case.

There was no polling error in Masto's 2016 race, please stop repeating this false talking point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada#Polling_2

In 2016 that was before VBM the NY 19 was huge polling error Molinaro plus 8, Pat Ryan +3, VBM my friend, in 22 but Rs quote polling error in OH Sen because Ryan and Barnes has lead in every poll except TRAFALGAR and Emerson, my friend be consistent , Rs want to believe TRAFALGAR and Emerson

Barnes +1 in Siena
Ryan +3, +6 Baldwin, in impact and Echelon not named Emerson and TRAFALGAR

[Calthrina950]

*snip*

So Masto is leading right now? Should we assume that all four of the recent polls in Nevada are wrong and that she's actually ahead by a few percentage points? The polling errors of 2016 and 2018 are repeating themselves, if this is is the case.

There was no polling error in Masto's 2016 race, please stop repeating this false talking point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada#Polling_2

No need for you to get angry with me. I was questioning Devils30's argument about this particular race. The argument which he and some others are making is that there were polling errors in previous cycles in Nevada, and that these errors are going to repeat themselves again this year.

Look at September 2016 and October 2018 on RCP. Everyone needs to chill. CCM could win this by 4 for all we know.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Also pretty sure CCM will win a higher % of blacks than whites %....just my humble opinion.

So Masto is leading right now? Should we assume that all four of the recent polls in Nevada are wrong and that she's actually ahead by a few percentage points? The polling errors of 2016 and 2018 are repeating themselves, if this is is the case.

To be fair, it hasn't been the most high quality group of pollsters so I'd like to wait to get more. 2020 was the anomaly with NV polling, so I would not be surprised if we reverted back to the polling being iffy there.

Honestly, the biggest n= in this poll has Masto and Laxalt nearly tied among Whites. If that's the case, then Masto is doing pretty great lol

Which pollsters would that be? CNN/SRC? NYT/Siena? CBS/YouGov? Regardless of that, Laxalt has led in several of the polls that have been conducted up to this point, whereas Oz and Masters have not led in a single poll. If Laxalt, as you say, isn't able to pull it off, then that would imply Democrats will retain the Senate and expand their majority by one or possibly two seats. And if that happened, it would be an embarrassing outcome for Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

*snip*

So Masto is leading right now? Should we assume that all four of the recent polls in Nevada are wrong and that she's actually ahead by a few percentage points? The polling errors of 2016 and 2018 are repeating themselves, if this is is the case.

There was no polling error in Masto's 2016 race, please stop repeating this false talking point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada#Polling_2

No need for you to get angry with me. I was questioning Devils30's argument about this particular race. The argument which he and some others are making is that there were polling errors in previous cycles in Nevada, and that these errors are going to repeat themselves again this year.

Look at September 2016 and October 2018 on RCP. Everyone needs to chill. CCM could win this by 4 for all we know.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Also pretty sure CCM will win a higher % of blacks than whites %....just my humble opinion.

So Masto is leading right now? Should we assume that all four of the recent polls in Nevada are wrong and that she's actually ahead by a few percentage points? The polling errors of 2016 and 2018 are repeating themselves, if this is is the case.

To be fair, it hasn't been the most high quality group of pollsters so I'd like to wait to get more. 2020 was the anomaly with NV polling, so I would not be surprised if we reverted back to the polling being iffy there.

Honestly, the biggest n= in this poll has Masto and Laxalt nearly tied among Whites. If that's the case, then Masto is doing pretty great lol

Which pollsters would that be? CNN/SRC? NYT/Siena? CBS/YouGov? Regardless of that, Laxalt has led in several of the polls that have been realized up to this point, whereas Oz and Masters have not led in a single poll. If Laxalt, as you say, isn't able to pull it off, then that would imply Democrats will retain the Senate and expand their majority by one or possibly two seats. And if that happened, it would be an embarrassing outcome for Republicans.

Sure, I'd just like to see more of the regular outlets. Right now we're looking at Traf, D4P, and IA (R) which aren't the best.

Would really like to get another Suffolk to see if anything has changed since their last poll, or even another Fabrizio/Impact.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't need more polling Pat Ryan in blue NY overcome Molinaro 8 pt lead and NV is a blue state and Data for Progress had it Laxalt plus 1 not three and early vote can wipe out that 3 pt lead in a blue state

[Mr. Illini]

+3 in a GOP internal is bad or at least neutral for Laxalt

[windjammer]

Well it's a R internal sooooo

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Hispanics aren't even a category in the poll? I'm begging you people to stop paying attention to this trash, especially in a state like NV.

Cortez-Matso at 42% among Black people LOL