IA-03 (Impact Research) Tied race
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  IA-03 (Impact Research) Tied race
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Author Topic: IA-03 (Impact Research) Tied race  (Read 604 times)
Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« on: September 23, 2022, 12:05:21 PM »
« edited: September 23, 2022, 07:51:11 PM by Brittain33 »

REP AXNE 47
Nunn 47

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1573355512942452736?t=6LAJr5-yvyGWnFWkgDW-8w&s=19
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Devils30
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2022, 12:29:21 PM »

This one is a rough district for Dems. Need probably a better than 2020 showing in Polk to offset brutal trends outside of the county. I would put VA-2, NJ-7 higher on the Dems hold list.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2022, 12:30:33 PM »

I have Axne on the list of incumbent democrats who could lose by double digits. Honestly, she may be the only one
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2022, 12:34:07 PM »

I have Axne on the list of incumbent democrats who could lose by double digits. Honestly, she may be the only one

She's probably the underdog, but I don't think it'll be by double digits.
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Christian mosh pit go mosh
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2022, 12:35:08 PM »

I have Axne on the list of incumbent democrats who could lose by double digits. Honestly, she may be the only one
No way she loses by double digits. At that point she's only winning Polk County by like 3-4 points.
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Devils30
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2022, 12:51:37 PM »

Dems have a better chance of unseating Cali Rs, picking up NE-2, NM-2 than this.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2022, 12:57:45 PM »

This one is a rough district for Dems. Need probably a better than 2020 showing in Polk to offset brutal trends outside of the county. I would put VA-2, NJ-7 higher on the Dems hold list.

Not really. 2nd biggest county in the district is Dallas county (Des Moines burbs) and it has been trending left pretty hard. Together Polk and Dallas make up around 75% of the districts population, up from 2020 because it had to shed some rural areas due to being overpopulated. Tossup district.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2022, 01:02:00 PM »

Doesn't this district have basically the same partisan balance as the old IA-03?
Why would Axne do much better or worse than she did in 2020?
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2016
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2022, 01:03:26 PM »

If Democrats win this District they retain the House. This is a MUST-WIN for Republicans.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2022, 01:09:57 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2022, 02:03:16 PM by Minnesota Mike »

Doesn't this district have basically the same partisan balance as the old IA-03?
Why would Axne do much better or worse than she did in 2020?

Moved slightly right, from Trump +0.1 to Trump +0.4 but yeah basically unchanged.
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2022, 01:59:07 PM »

I have Axne on the list of incumbent democrats who could lose by double digits. Honestly, she may be the only one

She's probably the underdog, but I don't think it'll be by double digits.

I had Axne and O’Halleran as the only incumbents losing by double digits when the environment was much more Republican. It still wouldn’t shock me if she did lose big, but Polk turnout should hold her steady. I still have the race as Lean Nunn.
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2022, 04:21:39 PM »

tossup
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Spectator
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2022, 04:33:24 PM »

Doesn't this district have basically the same partisan balance as the old IA-03?
Why would Axne do much better or worse than she did in 2020?

Axne didn’t do that well in 2020 compared to the other Trump district Democrats. Golden did by far the best, followed by Cartwright, Andy Kim, and Ron Kind. She only outperformed the Biden margin by a little more than 1%, which will not be enough in Iowa this year when Grassley and Reynolds are going to be on their way to pushing 60% statewide.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2022, 05:08:24 PM »

While this looks like it could actually be worse for Axne, she's still going to be one of the first Democrats to get axed this year. But perhaps it being even somewhat close could be a good sign for Democrats in House elections nationwide.
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Christian mosh pit go mosh
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2022, 05:23:14 PM »

Doesn't this district have basically the same partisan balance as the old IA-03?
Why would Axne do much better or worse than she did in 2020?

Axne didn’t do that well in 2020 compared to the other Trump district Democrats. Golden did by far the best, followed by Cartwright, Andy Kim, and Ron Kind. She only outperformed the Biden margin by a little more than 1%, which will not be enough in Iowa this year when Grassley and Reynolds are going to be on their way to pushing 60% statewide.
It's a super-polarized district and Polk County is the sort of place we'd see a post-Dobbs backlash. Axne probably can't ever lock it down with that polarization but if she hangs on population trends will make it better for her going forward.
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« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2022, 06:11:45 PM »

Doesn't this district have basically the same partisan balance as the old IA-03?
Why would Axne do much better or worse than she did in 2020?

Axne didn’t do that well in 2020 compared to the other Trump district Democrats. Golden did by far the best, followed by Cartwright, Andy Kim, and Ron Kind. She only outperformed the Biden margin by a little more than 1%, which will not be enough in Iowa this year when Grassley and Reynolds are going to be on their way to pushing 60% statewide.
It's a super-polarized district and Polk County is the sort of place we'd see a post-Dobbs backlash. Axne probably can't ever lock it down with that polarization but if she hangs on population trends will make it better for her going forward.

This is the interesting thing about Iowa. Even as rural areas move right (falling in line with elsewhere), the cities are still very liberal throughout compared to neighboring states (Nebraska, Missouri, etc), except for Sioux City. It's like Iowa suburbs are getting a "head start" on trending left, because they were already left of most to begin with and are moving the same way as the others.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2022, 07:29:46 PM »

This really shouldn't be that much of a tough race for Axne given that this is barely a Trump +0.4 district, and she won it in 2020, and this environment seems like it's closing in on that.

However, Impact is probably one of the better 'internal' pollsters, so this may actually be where the race is, which would then align with right now being like a pt or two behind 2020's GCB.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2022, 03:40:10 AM »

Axne is gonna win
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Pericles
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« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2022, 04:12:37 AM »

Another good district poll for Democrats, if Republicans have the House in the bag then there should be more good polls for them. Odd.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2022, 12:47:37 PM »

I have Axne on the list of incumbent democrats who could lose by double digits. Honestly, she may be the only one

She's probably the underdog, but I don't think it'll be by double digits.

I had Axne and O’Halleran as the only incumbents losing by double digits when the environment was much more Republican. It still wouldn’t shock me if she did lose big, but Polk turnout should hold her steady. I still have the race as Lean Nunn.
No offense to you, but the idea that high turnout in a 90 % white district would benefit democrats is not backed by recent election results. White voters, unlike minorities are strongly divided by education and the lower educates groups that are strongly R are less likely to vote. The types of people that vote often are well educated and well off. While Republicans do well with the latter, they do very poorly with the former.
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