If Republicans do not take back either House or Senate, what will be the reasons?

[Devils30]

Betting markets of course still have the GOP as a strong favorite in the House but the generic ballot is approaching the point where Dems have a reasonable shot. If the GOP has an autopsy, I would say these will be big points:

1) Angry suburban women- huge turnout among college whites post- Dobbs creates an election where large suburban counties are a higher % of the vote than 2020 and works to Dems benefit. Dobbs gives Dems a pickup in the new NC-13 and allows them to win late in NJ-7, VA-2, CA-45 on the back of the suburban vote.

2) Inability of GOP to progress with Hispanic vote from 2020- I totally expect the Rs to keep their 2016-2020 gains with this group as most Clinton-Trump voters identify as "conservative." That said, Nate Cohn's NYT article was a good piece that questions whether the GOP can really expect to do much better on top of an already large 2020 swing. If the Hispanic vote remains static, it might put Nevada and Arizona just out of reach and sink the GOP in the contested Cali House seats, flip NM-2.

3) Bad candidates in Trump/Dem. districts- Kaptur, Cartwright, Golden and Peltola have a realistic shot of all surviving 2022. This will increase the number of Biden seats the GOP must win and is not as easy as it looks. It's hard to think of any Biden/GOP districts that look like a lock outside of Fitzpatrick and Kim. CA-22-27, OH-1 look very shaky in addition to MI-3. Bacon has also been caught napping in NE-2 and stupidly co- sponsored the federal abortion ban. The strong Dem/weak GOP candidates in OH-9, PA-8, ME-2, AK-AL give the Dems a door to smash open in the final weeks in narrow Biden suburban seats mentioned in point 1.

4) Arrogance- Despite Trafalgar, American Greatness and Rasmussen polls showing Rs up, the warning signs began flashing loudly following the Dobbs decision beginning with NE-1 and extending to Dems special election showings that included a shocking victory in NY-19. Yet the GOP assumed it would beat the polls by 4-5% like 2016 and 2020 and nothing to worry about. Instead the non-GOP leaning D+5 polls were deadly accurate.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

More than anything else, Dobbs. The out-of-control reactionary majority on the Supreme Court changed the fundamental dynamic of the election away from the normal situation of a referendum on the incumbent party and the juiced turnout of opponents of the incumbent; instead the election is a choice between two different visions for the country, and Republicans are having to defend their vision for the country much more than an out party would have to do in a normal midterm.

[TML]

Biden’s approval rating, while still underwater, has ticked up recently, and this may be enough to tip some races that are close enough. For example, a Democratic strategist from Florida believes that either Sink or Crist would probably have beaten Rick Scott for governor if Obama’s approval rating had been in the upper 40s instead of the lower 40s at the time of those two elections.

[Del Tachi]

Trump.

[TwinGeeks99]

It'll be because they overreached with both extremist policy and unpopular candidates. They thought that the midterm curse meant they could just push anything they wanted and they'd still win, but they would have been mistaken if in fact they fail to win back Congress in November.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It'll be because they overreached with both extremist policy and unpopular candidates. They thought that the midterm curse meant they could just push anything they wanted and they'd still win, but they would have been mistaken if in fact they fail to win back Congress in November.

Which was the problem in 2010: getting greedy -- figuring that the whole agenda lock-stock-and-barrel can be automatically achieved in a single election cycle.  

I'm making the assumption that most Americans are not uber-extremists.  They may say "no abortions for anybody!" or "abortions for everybody, no holds!".  But when push comes to shove, extremist candidates -- at least on a statewide level -- turn people off even in today's hyperpartisan environment. 

Who knows, though? Nobody's won or lost either chamber yet. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They aren't reliant on Minorities vote they blocked Voting Rights that's why they are losing in AZ, PA, OH and GA due to R candidates like Masters, Oz and Vance and Walker getting low Blk or Latino support

Blue states the balance of power are Blks and Latinos in red states they are white females, that's why red states can be purple too because of white females

Why do you think Pat Ryan won because females in blue NY saw that Rs blocked Voting Rights, but this is a Midterm not Prez cycle we must understand that too and we still have COVID young people under 30 didn't turnout for D's in the primary they were motivated to vote in 2020 due to George Floyd but Blk athletes after Floyd went back to their rich and famous lifestyle like Curry, AD and LeBron

[prag_prog]

Main thing is Dobbs obviously. Other than that, they have also gifted Dems some seats due to poor candidates. I mean Dems literally had no business in winning that Alaska seat but now they might even be slight favorites. I think GOP establishment should have done better job in vetting some of the candidates like say Majewski who were contesting in seats that weren't dark red.

[Spectator]

Hubris in thinking we could get away with nominating sh**t candidates in swing states. I’ve said this point many times, but the fact that Adam Laxalt of all people is the “strongest challenger” to the four vulnerable Dems in NV, AZ, GA, and NH says all you need to know.

[Person Man]

It'll be because they overreached with both extremist policy and unpopular candidates. They thought that the midterm curse meant they could just push anything they wanted and they'd still win, but they would have been mistaken if in fact they fail to win back Congress in November.

Which was the problem in 2010: getting greedy -- figuring that the whole agenda lock-stock-and-barrel can be automatically achieved in a single election cycle.  

I'm making the assumption that most Americans are not uber-extremists.  They may say "no abortions for anybody!" or "abortions for everybody, no holds!".  But when push comes to shove, extremist candidates -- at least on a statewide level -- turn people off even in today's hyperpartisan environment. 

Who knows, though? Nobody's won or lost either chamber yet. 

Unfortunately, a clean sweep in either direction will be seen as an endorsement to either a platform that includes the total abrogation of specific rights for pocs, queers, and women and the cancellation of the entire welfare state, or conversely, a public endorsement of “Socialism”, abortions for everybody, and the encouragement, not just the acceptance, of people going out of their way to be different.

[Pres Mike]

Dobbs

[Calthrina950]

It'll be because they overreached with both extremist policy and unpopular candidates. They thought that the midterm curse meant they could just push anything they wanted and they'd still win, but they would have been mistaken if in fact they fail to win back Congress in November.

Which was the problem in 2010: getting greedy -- figuring that the whole agenda lock-stock-and-barrel can be automatically achieved in a single election cycle.  

I'm making the assumption that most Americans are not uber-extremists.  They may say "no abortions for anybody!" or "abortions for everybody, no holds!".  But when push comes to shove, extremist candidates -- at least on a statewide level -- turn people off even in today's hyperpartisan environment. 

Who knows, though? Nobody's won or lost either chamber yet. 

Unfortunately, a clean sweep in either direction will be seen as an endorsement to either a platform that includes the total abrogation of specific rights for pocs, queers, and women and the cancellation of the entire welfare state, or conversely, a public endorsement of “Socialism”, abortions for everybody, and the encouragement, not just the acceptance, of people going out of their way to be different.

The ideological divide between the parties, as your post highlights, certainly has gotten me to wonder from time to time how much longer this country can sustain itself. Our democracy is becoming increasingly untenable. But on the whole, I would agree with the reasons which have been offered here.

Dobbs clearly hurt the Republicans electorally and has greatly energized enthusiasm among the Democratic base. Republicans have not helped themselves by nominating god awful candidates in so many races, and Trump has distracted from some of the failures and unpopularity of the Biden Administration.

[Ferguson97]

Dobbs and weak nominees.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republicans alienating independents like the OP.

They blocked Voting Rights lol, how can Vance whom look like Eric Trump get white female or Blk or Latinos and white males own 90 percent of wealth and we have to go to them for a job, in a Good economy I got denied a law office position not lawyer and many black women even in the best economy, but did a white male get that job yes he did

Just like I was denied an internship with Peter Fitzgerald in college but did a white man get it yes he did, why because they have family that works in Corporate America and my cuz only became a lawyer thru the military, if he just went to school he would of had a tougher time becoming a lawyer

[Progressive Pessimist]

Bad recruitment, Biden's popularity increasing due to declining gas prices and legislative accomplishments, Dobbs of course, Trump attracting negative attention, unpopular policies or lack thereof entirely, and overall disruption of the short-lived disciplined messaging Republicans initially intended on running with and an inability to adapt to a message that addresses the change in their electoral fortunes.

You can sum it all up with the ever-present GOP Achilles heel that is their unmitigated hubris towards everything.

[VBM]

Right-wing wokeness (aka evangelism)

[ProgressiveModerate]

It'll be because they overreached with both extremist policy and unpopular candidates. They thought that the midterm curse meant they could just push anything they wanted and they'd still win, but they would have been mistaken if in fact they fail to win back Congress in November.

Which was the problem in 2010: getting greedy -- figuring that the whole agenda lock-stock-and-barrel can be automatically achieved in a single election cycle.  

I'm making the assumption that most Americans are not uber-extremists.  They may say "no abortions for anybody!" or "abortions for everybody, no holds!".  But when push comes to shove, extremist candidates -- at least on a statewide level -- turn people off even in today's hyperpartisan environment. 

Who knows, though? Nobody's won or lost either chamber yet. 

Unfortunately, a clean sweep in either direction will be seen as an endorsement to either a platform that includes the total abrogation of specific rights for pocs, queers, and women and the cancellation of the entire welfare state, or conversely, a public endorsement of “Socialism”, abortions for everybody, and the encouragement, not just the acceptance, of people going out of their way to be different.

The ideological divide between the parties, as your post highlights, certainly has gotten me to wonder from time to time how much longer this country can sustain itself. Our democracy is becoming increasingly untenable. But on the whole, I would agree with the reasons which have been offered here.

Dobbs clearly hurt the Republicans electorally and has greatly energized enthusiasm among the Democratic base. Republicans have not helped themselves by nominating god awful candidates in so many races, and Trump has distracted from some of the failures and unpopularity of the Biden Administration.

I feel like it's important to remember that in competitive races, Dems still do a pretty good job at nominating the more mainstream/electable Dems with honestly pretty few exceptions, while still being able to nominate progressives in super D districts. On the GOP side, I truly believe Trump has taken advantage of a lot of patriotic Americans and making them believe nominating an extremist is best both electorally but also practically.

My main hope is even if Rs have a decent midterm, that the candidates that were very clearly out of the mainstream (Majewski, Walker, Mastriano, Lake, ect) face underperformances of more "normal" Republicans and maybe just maybe the GOP will put a greater effort on not nominating those types of people again.

[Schiff for Senate]

Two big factors:

Nominating extremist candidates (who constantly said the quiet part out loud rather than sticking to the script)
Roe being overturned

[Schiff for Senate]

Hubris in thinking we could get away with nominating sh**t candidates in swing states. I’ve said this point many times, but the fact that Adam Laxalt of all people is the “strongest challenger” to the four vulnerable Dems in NV, AZ, GA, and NH says all you need to know.

And it's not just senate races. Though the OP obviously is not asking about gubernatorial races - the GOP significantly worsened their chances in PA-GOV and AZ-GOV (basically threw away their chance in the former) by nominating batty candidates rather than slightly more sane ones. I mean, it's not tough. Nominate somebody a little bit more rhetorically mainstream, who doesn't spew the Big Lie and adjacent conspiracy theories 24/7, who doesn't say far-right stuff publicly - like Brian Kemp in GA, and you can win. Like the GOP did absolutely the right thing in GA. Despite GA being a Biden state, the gubernatorial race is Likely R (and in practice, probably closer to Safe than to Lean, I'd say). Much unlike the gubernatorial races in other Biden states, like AZ and PA, where the GOP nominated bad candidates, and much unlike the state's senate race, where I'd still call Warnock the favourite because of how bad Herschel Walker is (I don't care if the man is a star footballer; he can't string together a few coherent sentences...it's pathetic and he's not getting very far).

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

So from this thread, I've learned that the Supreme Court letting each state decide what it wants to do with regards to a controversial issue (which they were able to do up until 1973) is actually hurting the Republicans' prospects more than attaching themselves to a twice-impeached former president under multiple criminal investigations?

Wow...just wow. Keep in mind I'm not criticizing fellow Atlas users...they are just calling it as they see it, but rather I'm criticizing the wider American electorate.

[sg0508]

Dobbs, Trump, poor candidates and overall ARROGANCE since last year's governors races.  When you overplay your hand politically, bad things happen.

[BenjiG98]

Poor candidates and poor messaging.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So from this thread, I've learned that the Supreme Court letting each state decide what it wants to do with regards to a controversial issue (which they were able to do up until 1973) is actually hurting the Republicans' prospects more than attaching themselves to a twice-impeached former president under multiple criminal investigations?

Wow...just wow. Keep in mind I'm not criticizing fellow Atlas users...they are just calling it as they see it, but rather I'm criticizing the wider American electorate.

Except absolutely no one who is paying attention should believe they are going to stop there and let this be a state issue. Fundamentalists who go around saying "abortion is murder" aren't going to go "actually, it's okay if states let these murders take place" they're going to try to pass a national ban at least as strict as the one Lindsey Graham has proposed, if not even more restrictive.

And to be clear, I do agree that Republicans continuing to tie themselves to Trump has been an unbelievably stupid choice as well. But if you look at the polling and the special elections, the Dobbs decision and the impact it is already having across the country is where the biggest shift occurred.

[Vosem]

Dobbs, but it would also strongly suggest the presence of an economy that Americans are happy with, or some really large triumph of the Biden administration happening as an October Surprise.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

So from this thread, I've learned that the Supreme Court letting each state decide what it wants to do with regards to a controversial issue (which they were able to do up until 1973) is actually hurting the Republicans' prospects more than attaching themselves to a twice-impeached former president under multiple criminal investigations?

Wow...just wow. Keep in mind I'm not criticizing fellow Atlas users...they are just calling it as they see it, but rather I'm criticizing the wider American electorate.

Except absolutely no one who is paying attention should believe they are going to stop there and let this be a state issue. Fundamentalists who go around saying "abortion is murder" aren't going to go "actually, it's okay if states let these murders take place" they're going to try to pass a national ban at least as strict as the one Lindsey Graham has proposed, if not even more restrictive.

Ok fair enough, but is that what voters are actually responding to...not the overturning of Roe v. Wade per se, but of the slippery slope some Republicans were/are going down afterwards? Most Americans don't fully understand the Supreme Court decisions in Roe or Dobbs.

Anyway, besides this and Trump, it's probably also hurting Republicans that gas prices are going down and Biden continues to notch bipartisan legislative wins whereas people think a GOP House won't do anything but investigate.