Early Voting thread.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I deleted a few posts. Please keep it civil.

Would have preferred if you had deleted the post above rather than just editing it, but you can't have everything in life I guess.

Do I get points for modding a personal attack post in real time, at least?

For sure.  Wasn't super serious on the last post.  Thank you.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm unable to report his post a few posts up again, but he edited it to call me a dumb piece of s----, please review.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm unable to report his post a few posts up again, but he edited it to call me a dumb piece of s----, please review.

It's been taken care of.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm unable to report his post a few posts up again, but he edited it to call me a dumb piece of s----, please review.

It's been taken care of.

Thanks, I appreciate it.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia:

Day 8 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 148,968 voters cast ballots Monday, for a grand total of 986,596 votes.

Breakdown of Monday's voters:

Code:

89002 	White	59.75%
41947 	Black	28.16%
2276         Asian	1.53%
2220 	Latino	1.49%
13523 	Other	9.07%

82125	Female	55.13%
66527 	Male	        44.66%	
316          Other         0.21%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

551239	White	55.87%
317033	Black	32.13%
14971       Latino	1.52%
14998	Asian	1.52%
88355	Other	8.96%

537448	Female	54.47%
447458	Male	        45.35%	
1690	        Other	0.18%

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Checked the NC breakdown for the first time in a while and the Dems are still outperforming 2020 percentage wise.

[bilaps]

So, as of this morning, Dems have 6,4k advantage in Clark and 600 vote advantage in Washoe. It's not looking that great like it did on the first day.

[wbrocks67]

GA 2020
Total EV (Mail + in person): 4.01M (56.5% white - 27.7% black) —> +28.8 white

GA 2021
Total EV (mail + in-person): 3.15M (55.5% white - 30.9% black) —> +24.6 white

GA 2022
Total EV (mail + in person): 987K (55.8% white - 32.1% black) —> +23.7 white

Runoff 2021:

12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white

[MillennialModerate]

So, as of this morning, Dems have 6,4k advantage in Clark and 600 vote advantage in Washoe. It's not looking that great like it did on the first day.

Yikes if that’s the margin then I don’t like Dems chances because you know GOP will win a heavy percentage of “day of”

[wbrocks67]

So, as of this morning, Dems have 6,4k advantage in Clark and 600 vote advantage in Washoe. It's not looking that great like it did on the first day.

Yikes if that’s the margin then I don’t like Dems chances because you know GOP will win a heavy percentage of “day of”

That's only with 1 Clark mail dump and Washoe hasn't updated in 2 days, I don't think.

[bilaps]

Washoe updated last night. In person was +500 for Reps for the day, mail total is 1,7k for Dems. Total +600 Dems.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Checked the NC breakdown for the first time in a while and the Dems are still outperforming 2020 percentage wise.

Where is this coming from? I see republicans over-performing by both modeled and registered party per target smart.

[wbrocks67]

So, as of this morning, Dems have 6,4k advantage in Clark and 600 vote advantage in Washoe. It's not looking that great like it did on the first day.

Yikes if that’s the margin then I don’t like Dems chances because you know GOP will win a heavy percentage of “day of”

I think like 90% of voting in Nevada was done before Election Day in 2020. Could obviously be less this year, but a giant majority will still likely be in.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Checked the NC breakdown for the first time in a while and the Dems are still outperforming 2020 percentage wise.

Where is this coming from? I see republicans over-performing by both modeled and registered party per target smart.

I think he means that Dems are outrunning their final EV percentage from 2020 (rather than what they had 15 days out). Dems finished up 2020 with 37% of the early/mail vote, they're currently at ~41%.

[bilaps]

Florida numbers as of this morning

VBM D+52k
IP R+23K

Total D+29k

Note that not all counties are open for early voting until Thursday

[wbrocks67]

Florida numbers as of this morning

VBM D+52k
IP R+23K

Total D+29k

Note that not all counties are open for early voting until Thursday

Will be interesting to see if Republicans continue to have a smaller edge than in 2020 in in-person. Would then confirm that there's a decent chunk of GOPers who are back to VBM.

[wbrocks67]

Washoe updated last night. In person was +500 for Reps for the day, mail total is 1,7k for Dems. Total +600 Dems.

Ah, gotcha. Washoe doing better at counting than Clark lol, at least with more updates. Dems ended up with a 1% lead among the Washoe early vote total in 2020, so interesting to see how that continues to trend.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Checked the NC breakdown for the first time in a while and the Dems are still outperforming 2020 percentage wise.

Where is this coming from? I see republicans over-performing by both modeled and registered party per target smart.

The NCSBE

[BenjiG98]

Using TargetSmart data, I created a map showing the current vote by congressional district as of yesterday.

[wbrocks67]

Return rates looking good for PA so far. 50% of Dems have returned their mail ballot, vs 46% of Reps

[wbrocks67]

Is something brewing in Nebraska? 45% of Democrats have returned their mail ballot, vs only 35% of Reps.

[bilaps]

Florida numbers as of this morning

VBM D+52k
IP R+23K

Total D+29k

Note that not all counties are open for early voting until Thursday

Will be interesting to see if Republicans continue to have a smaller edge than in 2020 in in-person. Would then confirm that there's a decent chunk of GOPers who are back to VBM.

Hm, why would you assume that?

[wbrocks67]

Florida numbers as of this morning

VBM D+52k
IP R+23K

Total D+29k

Note that not all counties are open for early voting until Thursday

Will be interesting to see if Republicans continue to have a smaller edge than in 2020 in in-person. Would then confirm that there's a decent chunk of GOPers who are back to VBM.

Hm, why would you assume that?

Not assuming, just saying it's a possiiblity. Florida historically had been very good for GOP with VBM up until Trump's anti-VBM nonsense in 2020. So it wouldn't be surprising imo if the GOP went back to more VBM without him being so prominent

[Unelectable Bystander]

These are my ratings at this moment. Ratings are not based on how the early vote or total vote will end up, but who it is favoring currently and how strong the evidence is.

Safe D: Michigan

Likely D: Georgia

Lean D: Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas

Tilt R: Nevada

Lean R: Iowa, Arizona

Likely R: North Carolina, a bunch of blue states

Safe R: Florida

[bilaps]

Florida numbers as of this morning

VBM D+52k
IP R+23K

Total D+29k

Note that not all counties are open for early voting until Thursday

Will be interesting to see if Republicans continue to have a smaller edge than in 2020 in in-person. Would then confirm that there's a decent chunk of GOPers who are back to VBM.

Hm, why would you assume that?

Not assuming, just saying it's a possiiblity. Florida historically had been very good for GOP with VBM up until Trump's anti-VBM nonsense in 2020. So it wouldn't be surprising imo if the GOP went back to more VBM without him being so prominent

It's very low possibility based on what exactly? Nothing if you ask me. The writing is well on the wall for Dems in Florida. Only 30k vote advantage and at this pace by the end of the week Reps will outnumber ballots cast in VBM + IP. I don't see a reason why would Reps go to the VBM more this year, it's much more probable that they will vote instead on election day.