Early Voting thread.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Unbelievable, we both agree on something. Wonders never cease

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Not so sure about this. Is there any turnout scenario that helps Democrats, or is their victory entirely down to persuasion?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Not so sure about this. Is there any turnout scenario that helps Democrats, or is their victory entirely down to persuasion?

Ultra low turnout where only political enthusiasts, union members, and the uber educated vote in any significant numbers? 

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Not so sure about this. Is there any turnout scenario that helps Democrats, or is their victory entirely down to persuasion?

Ultra low turnout where only political enthusiasts, union members, and the uber educated vote in any significant numbers? 

Sure, I buy that. I just think any turnout scenario COULD be spun one way or another, when the real answer “we don’t know who’s doing the turning out.”

I will say, though, that turnout being this high makes me skeptical of lots of the LV screens we’ve seen so far this cycle.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Not so sure about this. Is there any turnout scenario that helps Democrats, or is their victory entirely down to persuasion?

A good Dem turnout scenario would probably require an environment where Biden has a net positive approval as Bush did in 2002.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Not so sure about this. Is there any turnout scenario that helps Democrats, or is their victory entirely down to persuasion?

I mean high turnout definitely *could* be good for Dems (in 2020, they did win the senate and house, after all) - I just think in terms of "sure things", high turnout at minimum means both sides have turnout which means at minimum it's close (could be better for Dems ultimately though)

Where as I feel like the other "sure thing" is that lower turnout hurts Democrats 100%, just because Democrats have less of a reliable base than the GOP (the whole fall in love, fall in line thing) and because Democrats have more issues with their bases (young voters, minorities) historically having lower turnout.

[xavier110]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1582846620315492357

It was a stormy weekend, which affected mail delivery. My household did not receive all of our ballots on the same day, for example.

Or it could be that folks are truly deciding last minute.

Or it’s the size of the ballot — it’s an unusually long one here, with ten ballot props (don’t California my Arizona) and fifty judges up for retention in some locales.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1582846620315492357
It was a stormy weekend, which affected mail delivery. My household did not receive all of our ballots on the same day, for example.

Or it could be that folks are truly deciding last minute.

Or it’s the size of the ballot — it’s an unusually long one here, with ten ballot props (don’t California my Arizona) and fifty judges up for retention in some locales.

Is the ballot hard to read?  I heard that it uses very small type.

[wbrocks67]

Can we really compare "on the same day" though? Unless there's like a complete 1:1 (like GA early vote day 1 each year is comparable), just because the mail can be very funky, and different counties process results at different speeds.

For example - take Philly - they *just* started adding totals *today*. Meanwhile most of the counties in PA have been processing for over a week now. Some counties just seem to be going at different speeds.

Were the AZ ballots sent out all on the exact same day as 2018?

[wbrocks67]

WOW. We might be seeing a 3rd straight day of ~135K votes cast.

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582866498758270976

[roxas11]

A big reason why the GOP won big in 2010 and in 2014 was because the Dems stayed home and did not come out to vote. High turnout across the board is the last thing the Republicans want to see if they seriously want this election to look anything like an Obama era midterm.

The reality for the GOP is they need the Dems to stay home again just like they did in 2010 if they really want this to be a big red wave election. If both sides end up coming out to vote in this election that basically kill any idea of this being a red wave year and at that point the GOP would simply have to hope that they can still at least get enough seats to take back the Senate

[wbrocks67]

Something instructive I think for GA will be to watch the black vote. If we see it ultimately end up close to 2021 levels, I think that will be good for Warnock (maybe Abrams). Though as we saw with Biden, 27.7% just got him across, so I'd probably say Dems at least want 28% of the share of the vote just to be safe ahead of ED.

GA 2020
In-person early vote 2.69M (58.2% white - 26.4% black)
Total EV (Mail + in person): 4.01M (56.5% white - 27.7% black) ----> +28.8 white

GA 2021
In-person early vote: 2.08M (56.7% white - 30.3% black)
Total EV (mail + in-person): 3.15M (55.5% white - 30.9% black) ----> +24.6 white

GA 2022
In-person early vote: 268K (52.5% white - 36.0% black)
Total EV (mail + in-person): 292K (52.7% white - 35.9% black) ----> +16.8 white

[Devout Centrist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1582846620315492357

It was a stormy weekend, which affected mail delivery. My household did not receive all of our ballots on the same day, for example.

Or it could be that folks are truly deciding last minute.

Or it’s the size of the ballot — it’s an unusually long one here, with ten ballot props (don’t California my Arizona) and fifty judges up for retention in some locales.

Yeah, I wouldn’t worry about these numbers until like the week before Eday. Ballots were (supposedly) mailed on the 12th, I got mine on the 15th, my girlfriend got hers on the 18th, and her mother is still waiting on their ballot.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Very low turnout = good for Rs

Low turnout = tossup/somewhat good for Ds? (given that Ds are the high-trust party)

Average turnout = pure tossup

High turnout = good for Ds

Very high turnout = tossup/somewhat good for Rs?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Something instructive I think for GA will be to watch the black vote. If we see it ultimately end up close to 2021 levels, I think that will be good for Warnock (maybe Abrams). Though as we saw with Biden, 27.7% just got him across, so I'd probably say Dems at least want 28% of the share of the vote just to be safe ahead of ED.

GA 2020
In-person early vote 2.69M (58.2% white - 26.4% black)
Total EV (Mail + in person): 4.01M (56.5% white - 27.7% black) ----> +28.8 white

GA 2021
In-person early vote: 2.08M (56.7% white - 30.3% black)
Total EV (mail + in-person): 3.15M (55.5% white - 30.9% black) ----> +24.6 white

GA 2022
In-person early vote: 268K (52.5% white - 36.0% black)
Total EV (mail + in-person): 292K (52.7% white - 35.9% black) ----> +16.8 white

So far so good.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Very low turnout = good for Rs

Low turnout = tossup/somewhat good for Ds? (given that Ds are the high-trust party)

Average turnout = pure tossup

High turnout = good for Ds

Very high turnout = tossup/somewhat good for Rs?

So a W curve.

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Very low turnout = good for Rs

Low turnout = tossup/somewhat good for Ds? (given that Ds are the high-trust party)

Average turnout = pure tossup

High turnout = good for Ds

Very high turnout = tossup/somewhat good for Rs?

Depends on the state/area. In large parts of the South/West, where the Dem base is Black/Hispanic the GOP is still the more affluent/educated party. In Georgia this could still be the case, but Democrats are probably close to parity because of Atlanta yuppies at this point. 2021 might have been a special case where Trump's stolen election rhetoric caused a one-sided drop in GOP turnout that won't be present in future elections. In most of the White parts of the North/Midwest low turnout is very likely to benefit Democrats at this point, where the educated liberals turn out but not the less educated/wealthy GOP base.

Georgia might be one of the few states in the South where low turnout could benefit the Democrats. I think it benefits the GOP in VA/NC still. In VA, the overall White vote is still quite Republican, despite NOVA. Same is true in NC, despite the research triangle.

The Atlanta has a huge, suburban, prosperous Black middle class not as present in other states. While the Black pop in NC and VA is more urban and poorer and not always primed to turnout, the South suburbs of Atlanta are reliable.

[bilaps]

947k voted by mail in FL as of this morning

Dems have 36k lead in returning ballots, which is 41,9-38,3 in percentages vs Republicans. Even though their lead is bigger every day, percentages don't change much. If it stays like this, it will be a bloodbath for Dems.

[wbrocks67]

947k voted by mail in FL as of this morning

Dems have 36k lead in returning ballots, which is 41,9-38,3 in percentages vs Republicans. Even though their lead is bigger every day, percentages don't change much. If it stays like this, it will be a bloodbath for Dems.

Republicans will likely win in FL, but I think this year is objectively more tricky. We have to remember that prior to 2020/Trump's nonsense, FL Republicans were usually the mail ballot party and Dems were the in-person. Then it went opposite in 2020. So we don't know if the trend will continue into 2022, or if Florida Republicans are going back to voting by mail more often.

[wbrocks67]

California update

Democrat 309,883 (49%)
Republican 173,766 (27%)
Independents 149,919 (24%)

= 633,568

Return rate is 3% for Ds, 3% for Rs, 2% for Inds

So far, tracking essentially in line with Party Reg (D+23)

https://politicaldata.com/2022-general-ballots-returned-tracker/

[bilaps]

947k voted by mail in FL as of this morning

Dems have 36k lead in returning ballots, which is 41,9-38,3 in percentages vs Republicans. Even though their lead is bigger every day, percentages don't change much. If it stays like this, it will be a bloodbath for Dems.

Republicans will likely win in FL, but I think this year is objectively more tricky. We have to remember that prior to 2020/Trump's nonsense, FL Republicans were usually the mail ballot party and Dems were the in-person. Then it went opposite in 2020. So we don't know if the trend will continue into 2022, or if Florida Republicans are going back to voting by mail more often.

Republicans voted more in early in this year primary as well. We'll see soon enough. Dems had 250k mail in and in person early advantage prior to the election day in 2020 and lost with a healthy margin.

[wbrocks67]

947k voted by mail in FL as of this morning

Dems have 36k lead in returning ballots, which is 41,9-38,3 in percentages vs Republicans. Even though their lead is bigger every day, percentages don't change much. If it stays like this, it will be a bloodbath for Dems.

Republicans will likely win in FL, but I think this year is objectively more tricky. We have to remember that prior to 2020/Trump's nonsense, FL Republicans were usually the mail ballot party and Dems were the in-person. Then it went opposite in 2020. So we don't know if the trend will continue into 2022, or if Florida Republicans are going back to voting by mail more often.

Republicans voted more in early in this year primary as well. We'll see soon enough. Dems had 250k mail in and in person early advantage prior to the election day in 2020 and lost with a healthy margin.

Yeah, I mean we just don't know. This could absolutely be something really bad for Ds if the GOP has not really gone back to mail-in voting. FL is just funky, given its history, so it's hard to tell.

[Brittain33]

Republicans are likely to win Florida handily, but do people really think a difference in mail-in votes from past years means Florida is the one state where Dem turnout will crash, and not simply a return to a pre-Covid Florida norm where Republicans were comfortable with vote by mail? I think looking at the different partisan composition and applying the delta directly to DeSantis’s winning margin is… brave.

[wbrocks67]

GA 2022
In-person early vote: 396K (54.2% white - 34.3% black)
Total EV (mail + in-person): 435K (54.2% white - 34.4% black)

FWIW, in 2021, when they hit 500K total, it was about ~33% black.

[Mr.Phips]

Still waiting for Nevada.  That’s one state where the early voting will election tell us the results ahead of time.