Early Voting thread.

[brucejoel99]

Early Voting Begins:

Florida – Oct. 29

*Oct. 24th here in Broward.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Total Early Votes: 237,512
Mail Ballots Requested: 8,307,046

Party           Count Percent
Democrat   60,146 57.9
Republican   26,792 25.8
None/Minor 16,961 16.3
TOTAL 103,899 100.0

North Carolina, the state with the most votes that has early statistics, is showing numbers roughly in line with 2020, if a little better for Democrats.

Obviously still early but I would call this a good sign for Budd if the electorate is very similar to that of 2020 (not that party registration proves that it is).

1) this would mean that possibility of a 2018 style absolute democrat turnout advantage blitz seen in the special elections is less likely

2) As skill and chance pointed out, it seems that the people who vote a month early are trending hard away from republicans

3) It’s hard to imagine Budd doing so much worse than Trump with independents that he loses in a neutral turnout scenario

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 285,308
Mail Ballots Requested: 8,971,571

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota updated today: https://www.sos.state.mn.us/election-administration-campaigns/data-maps/absentee-data/

Applications submitted (10/6/22): 340,525
Accepted ballots (10/6/22): 49,575

47.5% of those returned are from Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most people Early vote because they want to make sure they are eligible to vote and don't want to wait til Eday and tell them they aren't eligible but most of us know whom we are gonna vote for it's the Judges and referendums that are undecided that's why Barnes, CCM, Ryan, Bengs, McDermott, McMillian, Chambers, and Beasley can all win but Hurricane IAN touched FL that was the October surprise

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 555,328
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,595,717

[2016]

Total Early Votes: 555,328
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,595,717

Which State, ought to be CA!

This will be one of the few Posts in this Thread from me. I will stay mostly away from Early Voting because I don't want to content with some Posters I did in 2020 who were telling me that Biden had a shot in TX or FL.

[2016]

Total Early Votes: 237,512
Mail Ballots Requested: 8,307,046

Party           Count Percent
Democrat   60,146 57.9
Republican   26,792 25.8
None/Minor 16,961 16.3
TOTAL 103,899 100.0

North Carolina, the state with the most votes that has early statistics, is showing numbers roughly in line with 2020, if a little better for Democrats.

Obviously still early but I would call this a good sign for Budd if the electorate is very similar to that of 2020 (not that party registration proves that it is).

1) this would mean that possibility of a 2018 style absolute democrat turnout advantage blitz seen in the special elections is less likely

2) As skill and chance pointed out, it seems that the people who vote a month early are trending hard away from republicans

3) It’s hard to imagine Budd doing so much worse than Trump with independents that he loses in a neutral turnout scenario

The NC Republican Party is always a little bit lazy. They gave me, as a Numbers Cruncher, quite a few grey hairs with their acting in 2020 waiting until the last 2nd until EV finally picked up.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 555,328
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,595,717

Which State, ought to be CA!

This will be one of the few Posts in this Thread from me. I will stay mostly away from Early Voting because I don't want to content with some Posters I did in 2020 who were telling me that Biden had a shot in TX or FL.

A bunch of them actually, CA hasn't started early vote counting yet.

[Holmes]

Total Early Votes: 555,328
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,595,717

Which State, ought to be CA!

This will be one of the few Posts in this Thread from me. I will stay mostly away from Early Voting because I don't want to content with some Posters I did in 2020 who were telling me that Biden had a shot in TX or FL.

A bunch of them actually, CA hasn't started early vote counting yet.

I just got my ballot in the mail actually. My husband and my votes are gonna be numbers in this thread soon.

[wbrocks67]

I do think it's interesting that GOP has a slightly higher return rate right now than Dems. However, if it's anything like PA, it may be more of a microcosm of more GOP-leaning areas doing better and getting these ballots scanned (i.e. in PA, places like Philly and Montco are barely scanning any yet)

[It’s so Joever]

I do think it's interesting that GOP has a slightly higher return rate right now than Dems. However, if it's anything like PA, it may be more of a microcosm of more GOP-leaning areas doing better and getting these ballots scanned (i.e. in PA, places like Philly and Montco are barely scanning any yet)

Cope.

[wbrocks67]

I do think it's interesting that GOP has a slightly higher return rate right now than Dems. However, if it's anything like PA, it may be more of a microcosm of more GOP-leaning areas doing better and getting these ballots scanned (i.e. in PA, places like Philly and Montco are barely scanning any yet)

Cope.

Okay

[Minnesota Mike]

I do think it's interesting that GOP has a slightly higher return rate right now than Dems. However, if it's anything like PA, it may be more of a microcosm of more GOP-leaning areas doing better and getting these ballots scanned (i.e. in PA, places like Philly and Montco are barely scanning any yet)

I read somewhere that Philly was planning on mailing ballots later than most of the state. IIRC there was a week long window to mail ballots and Philly planned to mail their ballots the last day of the window due to a last minute change to a down ballot race that caused a delay in sending it to the printer.

[Minnesota Mike]

Doing a little googling Philadelphia is not scheduled to mail out domestic ballots until next week.

https://www.axios.com/local/philadelphia/2022/09/26/philadelphia-mail-in-voting-deadline

It's probably going to be at least another week before you see significant returns from Philly.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 650,864 (+95k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,685,123 (+90k)

[2016]

Total Early Votes: 650,864 (+95k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,685,123 (+90k)

A gentle quick reminder of myself and I said this 2020 as well. Pay no attention to the Ballots requested especially now that COVID is sort of over.
Not every Mail Ballot that is requested will be returned by Mail. There are some Voters that request a Mail Ballot and decide to vote either Early in Person or on E-Day. Happens all the time.
Secondly don't expect the VBM Vote screw like 80-20 or 75-25 towards Democrats like we saw in 2020.
Finally would you be so kind enough to share which State it is.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 650,864 (+95k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,685,123 (+90k)

A gentle quick reminder of myself and I said this 2020 as well. Pay no attention to the Ballots requested especially now that COVID is sort of over.
Not every Mail Ballot that is requested will be returned by Mail. There are some Voters that request a Mail Ballot and decide to vote either Early in Person or on E-Day. Happens all the time.
Secondly don't expect the VBM Vote screw like 80-20 or 75-25 towards Democrats like we saw in 2020.
Finally would you be so kind enough to share which State it is.

It's a national tally. State reporting are MT, ND, MN, SD, IA, IL, MI, TX, VT, ME, PA, NJ, VA, MD, NC, GA, and FL.

[wbrocks67]

Doing a little googling Philadelphia is not scheduled to mail out domestic ballots until next week.

https://www.axios.com/local/philadelphia/2022/09/26/philadelphia-mail-in-voting-deadline

It's probably going to be at least another week before you see significant returns from Philly.

This is just playing with fire imo. Not a good look, especially for a county that Dems need to GOTV the most in.

[Devils30]

Doing a little googling Philadelphia is not scheduled to mail out domestic ballots until next week.

https://www.axios.com/local/philadelphia/2022/09/26/philadelphia-mail-in-voting-deadline

It's probably going to be at least another week before you see significant returns from Philly.

This is just playing with fire imo. Not a good look, especially for a county that Dems need to GOTV the most in.

I wouldn't worry too much, midterm mail in voters tend to be the highest propensity types.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1579110131887136771

Good thread here that features a discussion of early voting.  Click to read the whole thing.

[2016]

LOL, Tom Bonier is the CEO of TargetSmart, a Democrat partisan hack firm.

Turnout for example in Florida will be considerable lower compared to 2018 when they had once in a lifetime Midterm Turnout with 65 %.

[Holmes]

LOL, Tom Bonier is the CEO of TargetSmart, a Democrat partisan hack firm.

Turnout for example in Florida will be considerable lower compared to 2018 when they had once in a lifetime Midterm Turnout with 65 %.

You literally said this about that pollster from Alaska Ivan Moore (you actually called him a Marxist) and he was right.

[ProgressiveModerate]

LOL, Tom Bonier is the CEO of TargetSmart, a Democrat partisan hack firm.

Turnout for example in Florida will be considerable lower compared to 2018 when they had once in a lifetime Midterm Turnout with 65 %.

Yeah Target Smart's data seems iffy but we do seem to be heading into an era of higher turnout midterms generally. 65% turnout in Florida in 2022 wouldn't suprise me.

[Brittain33]

I got my ballot yesterday. Will probably vote and bring it to a dropbox at city hall this week.