Why is IA so much more Dem than neighboring states? (user search)
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  Why is IA so much more Dem than neighboring states? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why is IA so much more Dem than neighboring states?  (Read 1009 times)
Adam Griffin
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E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: September 23, 2022, 07:49:29 AM »
« edited: September 23, 2022, 07:56:02 AM by Adam Griffin »

There is a simple, structural phenomenon throughout a large segment of the country's interior: the further north and/or east you go, the more liberal people become, and the further south and/or west you go, the more conservative.

A large majority of Iowans live in the eastern half-to-third of the state, and as such, are going to more closely resemble their peers in places like Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota - both in rural and urban areas alike.

Half of IA lives in the red; another 20% in the blue. In terms of figuring out why IA seemingly doesn't fit the profile of (largely) states further west, draw some lines from the northwest and southeast of the area in question, and ask yourself if these people are really voting all that much differently than those within the defined boundaries.

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Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2022, 09:13:13 AM »

If the red area voted Trump 0.6 and Biden 0.4, that's still to the left of non-metro WI and MN you circled, which voted about R+10.

The lines were to illustrate the broader point about cardinal directions and the broader effect, but if you take the general orientation of the IA region and extend it along its average east and/or north - while omitting the coastal urban areas (Chicago, Milwaukee, etc), you end up with a very similar balance:

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Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2022, 12:43:21 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2022, 12:55:10 PM by Adam Griffin »

The problem is your way of circling areas are quite arbitrary. I can just extend more into downstate IL like you did into WI, or make the east cutoff westward, to get a very R number I want.

Include the rest of western WI and the WI portion is Trump +1 (east of there, Biden won by 3).

Include a southward track relative to my selected IA's bent into IL and the IL portion is tied (Trump won south of there by 29 points; Biden won Lake/Cook by 47).

So now we're haggling over a 2-3 point difference in 2020 at best.

 


It's not abritary other than basing it on the clustered segment of IA that comprises the vast majority and expanding it in a north-east trajectory while avoiding egregiously larger urban areas (Milwaukee, Chicago, etc) where urbanized IA has no analog. Again, go north and/or east = things tend to become more liberal in an apples-to-apples sense; go south and/or west = things do the opposite. This also completely omits the discussion of cultural influences due to the Driftless Area, but that's not a major concern.

Most people think IA sticks out because they compare it to the Dakotas or Nebraska or Missouri. That's the wrong comparison. Perhaps eastern IA should be like 3-4 points more GOP than it is based on my metric, but that's not really enough to write home about and wonder "why?" - especially when the default concern is frankly rooted more in "why is IA 15+ points more D than Nebraska?" or whatever. Western depopulated IA looks a lot more like the parts south and west of it; eastern IA looks a lot more like the parts north and east of it - and since the latter is the larger portion, it skews the state in said direction.
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