Can Nevada go Republican?

[ProgressiveModerate]

"Can" it. Yes it definitely can. Biden only won it by 2 in a D+5 year so Rs def have the votes to win given more favorable dynamics.

However, I will be curious to see to what degree Trump's relatively strong performance in Clark County (Las Vegas) was COVID related vs how much of it was actual shifts. I ran the numbers a while back and based on other simillar large Southwestern Counties like Maricopa, Harris, and San Diego, one would've "expected" the county to basically have 0 shift from 2016 which may not seem like a lot but would mean a Biden + 4 win statewide which may have felt a bit more comfortable. It is worth noting though that compared to most southwestern cities, Nevada is both abnormally diverse, racially integrated, and also has a very low rate of educational attainment throughout.