Nevada has been trending Republican. It has matched the nation's popular vote in 2016. And in 2020, it was so close that it wasn't called by the time Biden was called the president-elect.
However, Trump owns a lot of property in Nevada, I believe. But he could be the nominee again in 2024.
The Republicans have a problem in Nevada because they have not carried Washoe County (Reno) since 2004.
Washoe County is one of so many counties, from a given state, which became a 2008 Democratic pickup and has since not carried for a Republican for U.S. President.
Nevada votes like New Mexico. Since the latter entered the union and first voted in 1912, the two states have carried the same, with exception of 2000, in 27 of the last 28 presidential election cycles.
When looking at the map of Nevada, I am reminded of Arizona. Donald Trump, in 2016, underperformed Maricopa County (Phoenix) vs. his statewide percentage-points margin. This created opportunities for the Democrats as they won pickups for U.S. Senate in 2018 and likewise that level and the state for U.S. President with Joe Biden’s Democratic pickup of the presidency in 2020. They prevailed with having flipped Maricopa County.
I think Nevada, even with margins suggesting it is not bullet proof, realigned to the Democrats in 2008. (So did New Mexico.)
I think it may turn out Arizona realigned to the Democrats in 2020. (Same with Georgia, which votes like Arizona.)
I addressed this here:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566
Poll
