Can Nevada go Republican?
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September 30, 2022, 08:41:00 AM
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick)
  Can Nevada go Republican?
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Question: Well
#1
Yes, and I think it will
 
#2
Yes, but I don't think it will
 
#3
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 56

Author Topic: Can Nevada go Republican?  (Read 598 times)
Plankton5165
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« on: September 22, 2022, 08:36:16 PM »

Nevada has been trending Republican. It has matched the nation's popular vote in 2016. And in 2020, it was so close that it wasn't called by the time Biden was called the president-elect.

However, Trump owns a lot of property in Nevada, I believe. But he could be the nominee again in 2024.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2022, 09:00:27 PM »

Option 2.  It will probably vote for the winner, with a slightly greater likelihood of voting for a losing Democrat than for a losing Republican.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2022, 09:09:50 PM »

No, it's only 3 pts Laxalt, and that's MOE
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2022, 09:53:51 PM »

"Can" it. Yes it definitely can. Biden only won it by 2 in a D+5 year so Rs def have the votes to win given more favorable dynamics.

However, I will be curious to see to what degree Trump's relatively strong performance in Clark County (Las Vegas) was COVID related vs how much of it was actual shifts. I ran the numbers a while back and based on other simillar large Southwestern Counties like Maricopa, Harris, and San Diego, one would've "expected" the county to basically have 0 shift from 2016 which may not seem like a lot but would mean a Biden + 4 win statewide which may have felt a bit more comfortable. It is worth noting though that compared to most southwestern cities, Nevada is both abnormally diverse, racially integrated, and also has a very low rate of educational attainment throughout.
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Dep. ZMUN M441
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2022, 11:27:31 PM »

Option 2. It could flip in a nailbiter, and most likely would in a 300+ EV GOP victory. But if Biden wins by a similar margin to 2012 or 2020, he'll almost certainly carry NV.
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TML
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2022, 11:31:30 PM »

"Can" it. Yes it definitely can. Biden only won it by 2 in a D+5 year so Rs def have the votes to win given more favorable dynamics.

However, I will be curious to see to what degree Trump's relatively strong performance in Clark County (Las Vegas) was COVID related vs how much of it was actual shifts. I ran the numbers a while back and based on other simillar large Southwestern Counties like Maricopa, Harris, and San Diego, one would've "expected" the county to basically have 0 shift from 2016 which may not seem like a lot but would mean a Biden + 4 win statewide which may have felt a bit more comfortable. It is worth noting though that compared to most southwestern cities, Nevada is both abnormally diverse, racially integrated, and also has a very low rate of educational attainment throughout.

Even though this state is more working class and less educated compared to many other states, it should be noted that a substantial share of its working class people (especially in Las Vegas) are unionized, and unionized working class voters are more Democratic than their non-unionized counterparts. This is an important factor that's sustaining NV's current D lean. If unionization in this state declines in a manner similar to what has happened in the upper Midwest and/or Appalachia, then this could tip the state over to the Republicans.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2022, 12:50:36 AM »

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

Nevada has some of the most beneficial voting laws for the Democratic party.

A mail ballot is mailed to every registered voter in the state, making it extremely easy for the voter to fill out and mail back.

This benefits even the lowest of low propensity voters. Of course some will say that low propensity voters are now Trump supporters. But Trump supporters hate mail ballots and will bellow when one shows up in their mail box. They will discard their mail ballot and vote on election day, if they don't get swamped at work.

Lean-D, unless the GOP is winning big.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2022, 03:18:41 PM »

Hot take: It will vote to the right of the tipping-point state in 2024.
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DS0816
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2022, 04:37:07 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2022, 04:42:41 PM by DS0816 »

Nevada has been trending Republican. It has matched the nation's popular vote in 2016. And in 2020, it was so close that it wasn't called by the time Biden was called the president-elect.

However, Trump owns a lot of property in Nevada, I believe. But he could be the nominee again in 2024.

The Republicans have a problem in Nevada because they have not carried Washoe County (Reno) since 2004.

Washoe County is one of so many counties, from a given state, which became a 2008 Democratic pickup and has since not carried for a Republican for U.S. President.

Nevada votes like New Mexico. Since the latter entered the union and first voted in 1912, the two states have carried the same, with exception of 2000, in 27 of the last 28 presidential election cycles.

When looking at the map of Nevada, I am reminded of Arizona. Donald Trump, in 2016, underperformed Maricopa County (Phoenix) vs. his statewide percentage-points margin. This created opportunities for the Democrats as they won pickups for U.S. Senate in 2018 and likewise that level and the state for U.S. President with Joe Biden’s Democratic pickup of the presidency in 2020. They prevailed with having flipped Maricopa County.

I think Nevada, even with margins suggesting it is not bullet proof, realigned to the Democrats in 2008. (So did New Mexico.)

I think it may turn out Arizona realigned to the Democrats in 2020. (Same with Georgia, which votes like Arizona.)

I addressed this here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566
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DS0816
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2022, 04:49:39 PM »



Lean-D, unless the GOP is winning big.

What is “big”?

Since 1992, the average number of carried states for presidential winners has been 29. The range has been between 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) and 32 (a 1992 Bill Clinton).

Winning Republicans carried 30 and 31 states. (George W. Bush numbered both.)

Winning Democrats averaged 28 states.

Math: 32+31+30+31+28+26+30+25=233. Divided by 8 and they averaged 29 states.

Donald Trump, as the 2016 Republican pickup winner, carried 30 states. None of them included Nevada. That state was his No. 33 best-performed states (percentage-points margin).

Trump was closer to flipping two states—as his Nos. 31 and 32—which I think are ripe to become pickups the next time the presidency switches to the Republican column: New Hampshire and Minnesota. (Since 2004, they have averaged 1.24 percentage points in their margins spread from each other.)
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2022, 10:11:50 PM »

Option 2.  It will probably vote for the winner, with a slightly greater likelihood of voting for a losing Democrat than for a losing Republican.

Only slightly? I'd be absolutely shocked if the Republicans won Nevada but lose the election.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2022, 09:57:38 AM »

Option 2.  It will probably vote for the winner, with a slightly greater likelihood of voting for a losing Democrat than for a losing Republican.

Only slightly? I'd be absolutely shocked if the Republicans won Nevada but lose the election.

It may not be too likely, but it’s possible Democrats could lose Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin while holding Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
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