MI GOV: EPIC MRA POLL Whitmer +16
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  MI GOV: EPIC MRA POLL Whitmer +16
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Author Topic: MI GOV: EPIC MRA POLL Whitmer +16  (Read 1043 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« on: September 22, 2022, 06:29:01 AM »

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/09/22/whitmer-dixon-governor-michigan-poll-results/69508001007/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

GOV WHITMER 55
Dixon 39
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Person Man
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2022, 06:53:04 AM »

It looks like the 2012 map is reappearing with Democrats struggling in Texas and Florida and not quite sealing the deal in Georgia and NC. Maybe Nevada, after being in contention, will fall in line. Maybe this is also happening in Pennsylvania. I think the big difference would be to swap out Wisconsin and Arizona.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2022, 08:08:29 AM »

Whitmer fav 52/44 (+8)
Dixon fav 24/44 (-20)

This is what happens when you're so broke that you can't afford any ads and your challenger just keeps getting to define you.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2022, 10:59:56 AM »

Whitmer fav 52/44 (+8)
Dixon fav 24/44 (-20)

This is what happens when you're so broke that you can't afford any ads and your challenger just keeps getting to define you.

I’m surprised Betsy DeVos isn’t pouring money into the race then.

Anyway, this is bordering on Safe D now. Especially with the whopping number of voters in favor of the pro-choice amendment.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2022, 12:16:32 PM »

EPIC’s polls in Michigan in 2018 significantly *underestimated* Whitmer’s final margin for what it’s worth.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2022, 01:47:59 PM »

Whitmer is not going to win by this much, but I think a 6-10% margin of victory for her is plausible at this point.
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Splash
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2022, 11:13:56 PM »

If anyone is interested, they also polled the AG and SoS races:

Attorney General
Nessel (D): 48%
DePerno (R): 39%

Secretary of State
Benson (D): 51%
Karamo (R): 37%
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politicallefty
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2022, 03:09:06 AM »

I hope she can pull off a victory of this magnitude. She ranks very high on my list for 2028 (assuming Biden runs for reelection) and a landslide victory certainly wouldn't hurt her future prospects.

Whitmer is not going to win by this much, but I think a 6-10% margin of victory for her is plausible at this point.

Landslides in Michigan do happen from time to time.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2022, 07:50:16 AM »

I hope she can pull off a victory of this magnitude. She ranks very high on my list for 2028 (assuming Biden runs for reelection) and a landslide victory certainly wouldn't hurt her future prospects.

Whitmer is not going to win by this much, but I think a 6-10% margin of victory for her is plausible at this point.

Landslides in Michigan do happen from time to time.

They do, but in this highly polarized era, I would expect for them to be less frequent.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2022, 04:52:17 PM »

I hope she can pull off a victory of this magnitude. She ranks very high on my list for 2028 (assuming Biden runs for reelection) and a landslide victory certainly wouldn't hurt her future prospects.

Whitmer is not going to win by this much, but I think a 6-10% margin of victory for her is plausible at this point.

Landslides in Michigan do happen from time to time.

They do, but in this highly polarized era, I would expect for them to be less frequent.

Very true. I think the most notable examples are Gary Peters in 2014, Rick Snyder in 2010, and Barack Obama in 2008. The biggest questions right now in Michigan are probably the state legislature and MI-10. If Democrats could somehow win MI-10, Republican prospects for the House go way down.

The link is apparently paywalled now, but this poll also has the abortion amendment passing 64-27. That is down a bit from the 67-24 margin in their August poll.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2022, 05:38:04 PM »

I hope she can pull off a victory of this magnitude. She ranks very high on my list for 2028 (assuming Biden runs for reelection) and a landslide victory certainly wouldn't hurt her future prospects.

Whitmer is not going to win by this much, but I think a 6-10% margin of victory for her is plausible at this point.

Landslides in Michigan do happen from time to time.

They do, but in this highly polarized era, I would expect for them to be less frequent.

Very true. I think the most notable examples are Gary Peters in 2014, Rick Snyder in 2010, and Barack Obama in 2008. The biggest questions right now in Michigan are probably the state legislature and MI-10. If Democrats could somehow win MI-10, Republican prospects for the House go way down.

The link is apparently paywalled now, but this poll also has the abortion amendment passing 64-27. That is down a bit from the 67-24 margin in their August poll.

The abortion amendment certainly will be a major drag on Michigan Republicans.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2022, 12:45:31 PM »

I should make a hall of shame thread for polls like this. Even if Whitmer is favored, which I think she is slightly as of now, there’s no way she’s winning by this much.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2022, 01:01:05 PM »

I should make a hall of shame thread for polls like this. Even if Whitmer is favored, which I think she is slightly as of now, there’s no way she’s winning by this much.

Yeah TRAFALGAR has DeWine winning 55/39 so they can have Vance winning and Change Research polled OH Gov 45/39 and Ryan 47/42
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2022, 12:12:15 PM »

EPIC’s polls in Michigan in 2018 significantly *underestimated* Whitmer’s final margin for what it’s worth.
Polling quality is not static. It can change
PPP for instance used to be fairly decent...now it's a joke
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2022, 12:16:07 PM »

EPIC’s polls in Michigan in 2018 significantly *underestimated* Whitmer’s final margin for what it’s worth.
Polling quality is not static. It can change
PPP for instance used to be fairly decent...now it's a joke

PPP's track record is not as bad as some on this forum suggest.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2022, 12:17:38 PM »

This race is getting close to Safe D at this point. Excellent numbers.
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Spectator
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2022, 01:19:00 PM »

It looks like the 2012 map is reappearing with Democrats struggling in Texas and Florida and not quite sealing the deal in Georgia and NC. Maybe Nevada, after being in contention, will fall in line. Maybe this is also happening in Pennsylvania. I think the big difference would be to swap out Wisconsin and Arizona.

Problem with that analogy is Democrats did very well in Florida in 2012, and Georgia and Texas are a completely different beast than 10 years ago.
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