Colombian Politics and Elections
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Finally, elections being over, here's a general Colombian politics and elections discussion/personal monologues-effortposts thread. The next elections will be next fall's local and regional elections.
Gustavo Petro has been in office for a bit over a month now. He's still on an honeymoon with the public, with 59% approval in the regular Invamer-Gallup poll in late August and 69% favourability in a CNC poll for Semana around the same time, in both cases with just 20% disapproving - these are the highest approval ratings for a president in a decade. This is much to the media elite and opposition's chagrin, as they've been trying hard to spin relatively minor things out of proportion.
You can read my lengthy summary of what has happened since mid-August here: https://medium.com/colombian-politics-and-elections/colombian-politics-digest-iii-the-realities-of-power-be276a895a89
And you can read my analysis of the tax reform here: https://medium.com/colombian-politics-and-elections/petros-2022-tax-reform-c4b3a6011791
In political terms, Petro has put together a supermajority coalition in Congress with the left, the Greens, the Liberals, the Conservatives and La U, which combine to over two-thirds of the seats in both houses. The first tests of just how reliable this coalition is will be coming up in the coming weeks and months with the tax reform and other legislative priorities including a public order/security bill and a political-electoral reform. Much like Santos' Unidad Nacional coalition, Petro's coalition is built on traditional exchange of favours and bureaucratic transactions rather than ideological coherence - he conceded 'political representation' to the Liberals, La U and the Conservatives in his cabinet (the latter appearing to be the most pampered). The Liberals and the U already tried their hand at blackmailing him and threatening not to declare themselves as pro-government, which is probably a sign of what's to come in Years 2-3-4.
Overall Petro has been doing an OK job so far - some good decisions, some controversial ones and some problematic things.
'Total peace' - essentially peace with all remaining armed groups - is receiving a lot of attention from the government, but seems to be managed in a haphazard way and is off to a rocky start on the ground (violence is continuing at high levels), and there are lots of valid criticisms to be made of what the government is doing.
The tax reform is mostly good, with some rooms for improvement and some areas where the government should send clearer signals. It is telling that the right-wing opposition's main attack against the tax reform is a bunch of dumb memes about "our beloved junk food and sugary drinks are going to be more expensive!". In a sign that he's not an irresponsible populist, unlike some Latin American leftists, Petro has taken the quite unpopular but very much necessary and responsible decision to gradually raise fuel prices and basically reduce the fuel subsidies that are a huge burden on public finances (Colombia has some of the lowest gas prices in Latin America, besides Venezuela and Bolivia).
In foreign policy there's been some pretty unfortunate and problematic steps, which is disappointing given that a lot of people had high hopes for Petro here. The improvement of relations with Venezuela and the gradual reopening of the border are good news, and Maduro's willingness to get involved in the peace talks with the ELN is good and necessary, but Petro needs to be very careful to avoid the perception that he is shoring up or legitimizing Maduro's regime (which is what Maduro is looking for in this). He's been able to avoid this so far, and had a good and quick reaction when Diosdado Cabello said that Colombia should extradite Venezuelan dissidents, but it will get tougher and tougher in coming weeks and months. On Nicaragua, Colombia deliberately skipped a OAS vote condemning Ortega's dictatorship, in a very dumb and naive attempt to get a bilateral negotiation with Ortega over the maritime border dispute (where the ICJ has ruled in Nicaragua's favour). Hopefully they've learned their lesson. Petro's reactions to Cristina Kirchner's judicial problems (signing a letter of support for her with Alberto Fernández, AMLO and Arce) and the Chilean constitutional plebiscite (tweeting 'Pinochet revived' like some annoying Twitter leftist) were really not great and Petro really needs to avoid falling into the trap of ideological foreign policy/diplomacy like Duque did (which is the reason why Duque's foreign policy was catastrophic).
There's been several controversies, mini-scandals, gaffes and blunders by the government and the ruling coalition. Some are dumb -- the uncomfortably misogynistic undertones of most of the attacks on Pacto rep. Susana Boreal. Others are more serious and reminders of some of the nasty people in the Pacto -- senator Alex Flórez's drunken outburst at the cops while with an escort girl in Cartagena (even if he admitted to his alcoholism, it just adds to the long list of reasons why this misogynistic and narcissistic asshole is a terrible person). Mines and energy minister Irene Vélez has become the target of a lot of media and opposition criticism for a number of gaffes/blunders and controversies (see my Medium post) and while some of it is valid -- she lacks the experience and expert knowledge for the portfolio and needs to learn on the job, but is still a smart woman who has potential to be a decent minister -- a lot of it is increasingly coming off as bullying and a media circus, again with an uncomfortable sexist undertone.
icc:
No surprise, but Petro clearly laid out a big change in Colombian foreign policy (traditionally in lock step with the US) in his speech to the UN, calling for an end to the “War on Drugs”, and pointing out that responsibility for the failures, and for climate change, lies with the global north.
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Quote from: icc on September 20, 2022, 07:16:22 PM
No surprise, but Petro clearly laid out a big change in Colombian foreign policy (traditionally in lock step with the US) in his speech to the UN, calling for an end to the “War on Drugs”, and pointing out that responsibility for the failures, and for climate change, lies with the global north.
Yeah, it was an extremely blunt speech - pretty savage attack on 'the Global North' and modern capitalism (very thinly veiled and sometimes quasi-explicit digs at the US on stuff like African-American incarceration rates, private prisons and drug consumption). I think it was a quite powerful speech and reiterates that he wants climate change (with a special focus on Amazon rainforest conservation) and drug policy to be the core focus of his foreign policy agenda, and he was very good at telling the hard truths that the war on drugs has failed, that the fight against climate change is not doing well and in emphasizing the hypocrisy of 'the Global North' on those issues.
I do think it was a bit of an activist speech and perhaps a bit too much of a black and white 'Global North = victimizers / Global South = victims' angle. There's also some ideological leftist notes which aren't really my thing, and again, Petro would do well to avoid that kind of stuff in diplomacy. Also not a fan of the ambiguity on the invasion of Ukraine, but that's rather minor in this case.
Reactions seem to cut along the lines you'd expect. The right/uribismo thinks it was the worst thing ever, a lot of them criticizing what they see as apologism for coca/cocaine/drugs; the petristas think it was the greatest thing they ever heard. Petro is clearly good at giving some very strong speeches, but, again, we need to wait and see how this translates into concrete actions.
I recommend reading his speech in full as it's quite something: https://petro.presidencia.gov.co/prensa/Paginas/Discurso-del-Presidente-Gustavo-Petro-ante-la-77-Asamblea-General-de-la-Org-220920.aspx
In domestic political news, Rodolfo Hernández's brief stint in the Senate is coming to an end already. He's confirmed that he will resign his seat soon, most likely in anticipation of a run for governor of Santander next fall (current officeholders who want to run locally next year must resign from office a year before the elections, so late October at the latest). As I've said many times Rodolfo is really out of place in Congress and he has repeatedly made clear that he doesn't care for legislatures or the job of a legislator, and has said his presence in the Senate is like having "Messi as a goalkeeper". Rodolfo has gotten official legal recognition for his party, the Liga, and has promptly turned into a personal dictatorship-family business, with the statutes declaring him 'president-founder for life' with final word on everything and with the party leadership made up of his immediate family and two of his employees. He's distanced himself from his running mate, Marelen Castillo, and is apparently hounding her to repay the 'f--king' salary he had agreed to pay her during the campaign (classic Rodolfo!). And the Liga's two representatives have both said that they were not invited to the party, so they too are distanced from Rodolfo already.
In fun news, Senate president Roy Barreras has declared that Congress will now be pet-friendly, which will allow congressmen to bring their pets (this is going to be great). He introduced a dog he adopted during the pandemic, 'Covid' (why you'd name a little dog 'Covid' is beyond me). It's too bad Álvaro Uribe is no longer a senator so he could bring his pet horses to work.
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Sir John Johns:
Gustavo Petro has been dragged this week into a scandal over the alleged shady businesses conducted by his son, Nicolás, and his brother, Juan Fernando, and their possible ties with drug traffickers, a scandal I have hard time not finding at lot of similarities with the one in which Guillermo Lasso is currently embroiled in neighboring Ecuador (the presidential relative illegally managing public contracts and jobs + accusations of election campaign being financed by drug traffickers):
https://apnews.com/article/colombia-president-petro-brother-son-eca58b66d36655dc7d14afa1ce5dba7d
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Nicolás Petro’s ex-partner, Day Vásquez, has said that he received improper money from donations to his father’s campaign.
In an interview with Semana magazine, Vásquez said the president’s son received more than 600 million Colombian pesos (about $125,000) from Samuel Santander Lopesierra, who is known as the “Marlboro Man” and was imprisoned in the United States for drug trafficking.
The donation “never legally reached the campaign because he kept the money as well as others,” Vásquez said without providing proof. She added that the president had no knowledge of the money.
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There have also been complaints made against the president’s brother, Juan Fernando Petro, in connection with a network of lawyers and organizations that allegedly took money to link drug traffickers and people wanted for extradition with the government’s “total peace” program.
The case has been publicized by Semana, a right-wing weekly and not the best source if I understand correctly, but considered as potentially enough politically damaging to lead Petro requesting prosecutors to investigate the allegations (don’t understand if the investigation has been opening before or after the interview of Petro Jr.’s ex-partner in Semana). Petro’s son and brother have denied the accusations but Semana has just published a series of WhatsApp chats between Nicolás Petro and his then-partner (who provided herself the chats to Semana) in which the son of the president was supposedly discussing about negotiations of public jobs and contracts with officials and ministers and about buying a luxury house in Barranquilla with the money received (the plan for the purchase was subsequently abandoned). The right-wing press is also going after the supposed lavish lifestyle of Nicolás Petro.
This happening eight months before the local elections and when the Petro administration has became quite unpopular, the number of people not approving Petro having overcame those approving the president in the latest opinion polls.
icc:
It hasn’t been a good couple of weeks for Petro. First he was forced to end the ceasefire with the Clan del Golfo (the country’s biggest cartel), and about a week ago he withdrew his proposed political reform. Now his health reform appears to be under threat, with allies from the traditional parties withdrawing support, and yesterday rebels from the ELN killed 9 soldiers at an army base in Norte de Santander.
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