Foulkes is surging and will probably take enough away from Gorbea to allow McKee to win. Gorbea stumbled in the last few weeks with issues surrounding ballot errors (she is secretary of state) and a subpar debate performance. Foulkes did well in the debates and received the coveted endorsement of Providence mayor Jorge Elorza (and also was endorsed by Nancy Pelosi who is coming to RI tomorrow if that means anything).
It's hard to tell if this vote will break down more on ideological lines (progressive vs moderate) or on incumbency lines (pro McKee vs. anti McKee). I'm not really sure. Matt Brown will lock up the small amount of hardcore Bernie people, but no one outside that group thinks a $19 minimum wage or enacting M4A in RI is feasible or even a serious campaign promise. He'll come in fourth.
My guess is it ends up something like this:
McKee 40%
Gorbea 30%
Foulkes 20%
Brown and others 10%
But I could be way off. Foulkes is really the wildcard here. A lot of her rise seems to come from self-funding or corporate cash, but either way her surge may have come too late, a la Amy Klobuchar in the 2020 New Hampshire primary.
It ended up being even closer than I thought. Foulkes actually tied with McKee on Election Day votes (she won by less than 100 I think) but came in third in both mail-in and early votes. If her momentum started just a bit earlier she would have won. Final result was 33% McKee 30% Foulkes 26% Gorbea. Matt Brown got 8%.
A very interesting election that of course got largely ignored on Atlas!
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