Emerson - Trump leads Biden in AZ, GA, NV, OH and PA

[citizenZ]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1570593577180475393

These numbers would have Donald Trump somewhere around 290 electoral votes.

[Skill and Chance]

So Emerson really does have Biden < 2020 results in every state they have polled recently.  Interesting.  Most accurate poll of 2020.

[Mr.Phips]

So Emerson really does have Biden < 2020 results in every state they have polled recently.  Interesting.  Most accurate poll of 2020.

Yet they have him at +1 nationally and ahead 1 in Wisconsin.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Poll took almost an entire month to complete.

[RFayette]

Tremendous poll.  Hope to see more like these coming!

[Skill and Chance]

So Emerson really does have Biden < 2020 results in every state they have polled recently.  Interesting.  Most accurate poll of 2020.

Yet they have him at +1 nationally and ahead 1 in Wisconsin.

Despite the overall accuracy, Emerson still had Wisconsin problems.  Biden +8 in their last poll there.

Also Biden +1 nationwide would be considerably worse than 2020, and unless something drastic has changed (massive R improvement in the Southwest?), the EC wouldn't even be close.

[Hollywood]

I think most normal people are generally scared of Biden.  I've been hearing a lot of people express that they are scared of Biden and the Democrat Party due to a large number of deficiencies that have seemingly made Trump look like the greatest politician of our time. lol.  My sister's GF is now telling me that she is scared of a nuclear war, and said, "We could be gone like That (snaps her fingers)".  And it amazed me to see her do a complete 180 from just a few months ago, because she would absolutely choose Abortion as her number 1 issue in a poll.  According to YouGov, 68% of Americans felt safer with Trump over Biden.  They consider Vladimir Putin to be a strong leader, because look at the one that was elected.  58% consider Biden to be a weak leader, and only 14% considered him to be very strong.  I think more people were against the Afghanistan War after we were attacked.  More people disapprove of Joe Biden's handling of Abortion than they blame the Supreme Court than disapprove of the Supreme Court (42-42% favorability).  And this is a Democrat Pollster that routinely tests out party talking points.  Like 33% of respondents didn't vote in the last election, and that speaks for itself.  BTW... 2018 model they're using this year.  https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/tdp5rd170j/econtoplines.pdf

Many people don't want Trump to run again, but they'll vote for him.  He'll win.  They will hold their nose to vote for him over Clinton or Biden.  I've seen Democrats polls with 60% disapproving of Trump, and he still ties Biden.  Why?  They trust more on the economy, energy and foreign policy despite all the BS the media reports.  Two years ago the Democrats and their media were still running cover for China cause Trump was trying to launch an international campaign against China for his 4 years, and now 74% of people agree that China has got to be taken seriously.  56% of people think the economy is in a recession, 20% didn't know, and 24% (Democrats) were just arrogantly ignorant.  Only 24% of people bought the Democrat talking point on recession, which means almost everyone knows Biden and the media is lying to them.  If your party had just handled at least one of the issues I've last year when something could have been done, you'd have some more substantive issues to run on.

Let's put it this way.  If the number one priority for Democrat Leaders is 'crucify Trump' despite all the drastically more important issues (and it is), then your fear of Trump is a reflection of your own insecurities and inabilities to govern the country. I can't think of anything more horrible for a government official to pursue than maliciously abusing their power to fabricate investigations and lawsuits against a political opponent on the basis of your own fears that he will legally enter the 2024 Race.  To go after his friends for violating laws that are never prosecuted just to get them to fabricate evidence.  A finger snap away from the a nuclear holocaust.   

[wbrocks67]

I think most normal people are generally scared of Biden.  I've been hearing a lot of people express that they are scared of Biden and the Democrat Party due to a large number of deficiencies that have seemingly made Trump look like the greatest politician of our time. lol.  My sister's GF is now telling me that she is scared of a nuclear war, and said, "We could be gone like That (snaps her fingers)".  And it amazed me to see her do a complete 180 from just a few months ago, because she would absolutely choose Abortion as her number 1 issue in a poll.  According to YouGov, 68% of Americans felt safer with Trump over Biden.  They consider Vladimir Putin to be a strong leader, because look at the one that was elected.  58% consider Biden to be a weak leader, and only 14% considered him to be very strong.  I think more people were against the Afghanistan War after we were attacked.  More people disapprove of Joe Biden's handling of Abortion than they blame the Supreme Court than disapprove of the Supreme Court (42-42% favorability).  And this is a Democrat Pollster that routinely tests out party talking points.  Like 33% of respondents didn't vote in the last election, and that speaks for itself.  BTW... 2018 model they're using this year.  https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/tdp5rd170j/econtoplines.pdf

Many people don't want Trump to run again, but they'll vote for him.  He'll win.  They will hold their nose to vote for him over Clinton or Biden.  I've seen Democrats polls with 60% disapproving of Trump, and he still ties Biden.  Why?  They trust more on the economy, energy and foreign policy despite all the BS the media reports.  Two years ago the Democrats and their media were still running cover for China cause Trump was trying to launch an international campaign against China for his 4 years, and now 74% of people agree that China has got to be taken seriously.  56% of people think the economy is in a recession, 20% didn't know, and 24% (Democrats) were just arrogantly ignorant.  Only 24% of people bought the Democrat talking point on recession, which means almost everyone knows Biden and the media is lying to them.  If your party had just handled at least one of the issues I've last year when something could have been done, you'd have some more substantive issues to run on.

Let's put it this way.  If the number one priority for Democrat Leaders is 'crucify Trump' despite all the drastically more important issues (and it is), then your fear of Trump is a reflection of your own insecurities and inabilities to govern the country. I can't think of anything more horrible for a government official to pursue than maliciously abusing their power to fabricate investigations and lawsuits against a political opponent on the basis of your own fears that he will legally enter the 2024 Race.  To go after his friends for violating laws that are never prosecuted just to get them to fabricate evidence.  A finger snap away from the a nuclear holocaust.   

sis... please go out and get some fresh air

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Poll took almost an entire month to complete.

The way the original account (the twitter) posted it is not even how emerson conducted it, I'm not sure why they posted it like this. What they did was they posted each number from the individual polls Emerson has been doing over the course of that month in each state, very misleading.

[Spectator]

No way Trump can win Georgia by 5 points anymore, even against Harris.

[Skill and Chance]

No way Trump can win Georgia by 5 points anymore, even against Harris.

Yes, that one doesn't look credible.  Also, it's probably the 2nd most likely state (after California) for Harris to outperform Biden.

[Senator Incitatus]

No way Trump can win Georgia by 5 points anymore, even against Harris.

Yes, that one doesn't look credible.  Also, it's probably the 2nd most likely state (after California) for Harris to outperform Biden.

I doubt she'd outperform Biden in California (or that it would be her best underperformance versus Biden). She wasn't particularly popular in the state and almost lost her only competitive race. My guess would be a place with Democratic-trending areas that has a large Indian-American population, like New Jersey.

[Vosem]

No way Trump can win Georgia by 5 points anymore, even against Harris.

Yes, that one doesn't look credible.  Also, it's probably the 2nd most likely state (after California) for Harris to outperform Biden.

Maryland.

[Kamala's side hoe]

No way Trump can win Georgia by 5 points anymore, even against Harris.

Yes, that one doesn't look credible.  Also, it's probably the 2nd most likely state (after California) for Harris to outperform Biden.

I doubt she'd outperform Biden in California (or that it would be her best underperformance versus Biden). She wasn't particularly popular in the state and almost lost her only competitive race. My guess would be a place with Republican-trending areas that has a large Indian-American population, like New Jersey.

Are you suggesting that Acela corridor suburban South Asian enclaves are trending R? This doesn’t seem that unreasonable if it’s part of a broader trend of the most recent naturalized voters and new voters breaking closer to 50-50 than existing high-propensity voters.

Of course if we take OSR at face value then this probably wouldn’t be the case for NJ. I am super curious how Harris would do in CA in both a hypothetical primary and GE.

[Schiff for Senate]

No way Trump can win Georgia by 5 points anymore, even against Harris.

Yes, that one doesn't look credible.  Also, it's probably the 2nd most likely state (after California) for Harris to outperform Biden.

I doubt she'd outperform Biden in California (or that it would be her best underperformance versus Biden). She wasn't particularly popular in the state and almost lost her only competitive race. My guess would be a place with Republican-trending areas that has a large Indian-American population, like New Jersey.

What about the Bay Area? Kamala's a native of this area, and it has a very high Asian population. Then again, it's already so massively Democratic there's not much more room for the Democratic margin to expand (which is why much of the Bay Area swung a little bit to the right in 2020 - ultra-blue minorities and urban areas shifted to the right, after, like the Bay Area and California as a whole, having swung/trended left in 2016).

[Skill and Chance]

No way Trump can win Georgia by 5 points anymore, even against Harris.

Yes, that one doesn't look credible.  Also, it's probably the 2nd most likely state (after California) for Harris to outperform Biden.

Maryland.

I have little doubt Harris would top Clinton in Maryland (and Virginia, for that matter).  Not at all sure she would replicate the Biden blowout that extended all the way into the exurbs, though.

[Senator Incitatus]

No way Trump can win Georgia by 5 points anymore, even against Harris.

Yes, that one doesn't look credible.  Also, it's probably the 2nd most likely state (after California) for Harris to outperform Biden.

I doubt she'd outperform Biden in California (or that it would be her best underperformance versus Biden). She wasn't particularly popular in the state and almost lost her only competitive race. My guess would be a place with Republican-trending areas that has a large Indian-American population, like New Jersey.

Are you suggesting that Acela corridor suburban South Asian enclaves are trending R? This doesn’t seem that unreasonable if it’s part of a broader trend of the most recent naturalized voters and new voters breaking closer to 50-50 than existing high-propensity voters.

Of course if we take OSR at face value then this probably wouldn’t be the case for NJ. I am super curious how Harris would do in CA in both a hypothetical primary and GE.

No, I meant to say a place without Republican-trending areas. Biden improved on Clinton in nearly every town in New Jersey, except those urban communities in which turnout cratered. I've updated my comment.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Home state advantage is more of a thing in a smaller state than a large state. A Wyoming politician making the national stage is more significant for Wyoming people than a Californian for Californian people.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All these polls are MOE, with no ads going on we will see after midterms how Biden does with an RH and a  DS