Did The Trump Campaign Realize/Suspect They Were Going to Lose On The Morning Of The Election?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I mean, I remember Trump seeming tired when speaking to reporters, like he knew he was in for a rough night. But let's keep this to his campaign staff, not to Trump personally. Did they believe the polls, or were they all surprised by the results?

[Cyrusman]

I mean, I remember Trump seeming tired when speaking to reporters, like he knew he was in for a rough night. But let's keep this to his campaign staff, not to Trump personally. Did they believe the polls, or were they all surprised by the results?

My Guess is they saw the writing on the wall shortly after midnight on the east coast. AZ had been called by then and it appeared that WI, MI, and PA would go to Biden once all votes were in. MI definitely did not look good and WI and PA were not looking great either so it didn't matter if he even won GA.

[sg0508]

Things only started going badly with the surprise AZ call by Fox. Before then, he was winning in all the key states he had to. AZ turned it around.

[bagelman]

Depends on the staffer. Saw saw him as "the underdog", others in the know saw the real contest in December or January, and not a popularity contest but a martial one.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think his staff at least knew but were too terrified of breaking the news to him, and how.

[Orwell]

No, more American citizens voted for Trump.

[Vice President Christian Man]

No and many of them still claim Biden is illegitimate

[South Dakota Democrat]

No, more American citizens voted for Trump.

No.

[Orwell]

No, more American citizens voted for Trump.

No.

I'm right. Biden is a fraud, elected by Soros and Gates with the Dominion machines.

[South Dakota Democrat]

No, more American citizens voted for Trump.

No.

I'm right. Biden is a fraud, elected by Soros and Gates with the Dominion machines.

Nah.

[Pres Mike]

I've read 8-9 books on the 2020 election

This seems to be the consensus.

Unlike 2016, Republican internal polling had Trump behind. But it did show him improving in the days leading up to the election. On election day, he was still behind but close enough that he could get lucky again. Around 8pm, things looked just like that, Trump was going to pull a upset.

Around midnight, campaign staff knew Trump was going to come up short. So did the Biden campaign and most media outlets.

To answer the OP question, yes and no. No, they did not have evidence of an upset unlike 2016. Yes they had some reason to be confident.

[Mr. Smith]

No, more American citizens voted for Trump.

No.

I'm right. Biden is a fraud, elected by Soros and Gates with the Dominion machines.

You're wrong, and the ballots in Maine were stuffed to stop Gideon, and f*&ked with in North Carolina, and the FL GOP ratf&*ked the ballot design in Broward and Miami-Dade to inflate the real Florida result.

Try again.

[Alben Barkley]

If I could call the election with the exact map by 5 AM, as I did here, I am sure his people saw the writing on the wall around the same time or sooner.

[SWE]

I've never heard of an instance in which a Republican believed losing an election was possible so I doubt it

[Woody]

If I could call the election with the exact map by 5 AM, as I did here, I am sure his people saw the writing on the wall around the same time or sooner.

And just a few hours before, well into election night, you thought that Kenton County was going for Biden.

[South Dakota Democrat]

If I could call the election with the exact map by 5 AM, as I did here, I am sure his people saw the writing on the wall around the same time or sooner.

And just a few hours before, well into election night, you thought that Kenton County was going for Biden.

I thought you were going to leave for a year, what happened to that?

[Alben Barkley]

If I could call the election with the exact map by 5 AM, as I did here, I am sure his people saw the writing on the wall around the same time or sooner.

And just a few hours before, well into election night, you thought that Kenton County was going for Biden.

No I did not. I made a joke post based on the early Kentucky results and the fact that they didn't instacall it, but knew they were a mail-in mirage. If you actually read all my posts that night, you would know that. In fact, if you even just read that same post, you would know that as I made it clear I was not serious.

It's not like for months or years after the fact I was in denial about Biden losing Kentucky or something, or made bets on him winning Kentucky after he already lost it...

[GregTheGreat657]

No. With my experience  watching content by Trumpist creators around this time (aka the sorts of people who would think similarly to Trump campaign staff), they likely believed that they would win big, and bigger than 2016 at that

[Vice President Christian Man]

If I could call the election with the exact map by 5 AM, as I did here, I am sure his people saw the writing on the wall around the same time or sooner.

And just a few hours before, well into election night, you thought that Kenton County was going for Biden.

No I did not. I made a joke post based on the early Kentucky results and the fact that they didn't instacall it, but knew they were a mail-in mirage. If you actually read all my posts that night, you would know that. In fact, if you even just read that same post, you would know that as I made it clear I was not serious.

It's not like for months or years after the fact I was in denial about Biden losing Kentucky or something, or made bets on him winning Kentucky after he already lost it...

To be fair, Biden did the best in terms of % gap in Kenton County since Bill Clinton.

[DabbingSanta]

Trump actually did win by a lot, the election was stolen from him by the fake news media and big tech.

[dw93]

I think the more seasoned political operators in the campaign knew they were going to lose, while the wacky yes men and women that were in the inner circle of the campaign thought they were going to win and win bigger than they did in 2016.

[Cyrusman]

I've read 8-9 books on the 2020 election

This seems to be the consensus.

Unlike 2016, Republican internal polling had Trump behind. But it did show him improving in the days leading up to the election. On election day, he was still behind but close enough that he could get lucky again. Around 8pm, things looked just like that, Trump was going to pull a upset.

Around midnight, campaign staff knew Trump was going to come up short. So did the Biden campaign and most media outlets.

To answer the OP question, yes and no. No, they did not have evidence of an upset unlike 2016. Yes they had some reason to be confident.

Of the 8-9 you read, is there one that really goes in depth and does a great job with the timeline of how the final stretch of the campaign went and what was going on within the Trump circles? If so, let me know which one. Really interested in reading one about that.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think the more seasoned political operators in the campaign knew they were going to lose, while the wacky yes men and women that were in the inner circle of the campaign thought they were going to win and win bigger than they did in 2016.

I think this is the right answer. What's harder to gauge is the proportion of seasoned operators to "wacky yes men". What seems to have happened is that seasoned Republican operators either said "screw it, I'm out", or got kicked out. We saw this mainly at the highest level, but I'm sure it happened downstream too. So it's likely that by the 2020 election, Trump's staff was increasingly made up of yes-men. By now, that's almost entirely what it seems to be from everything we can see publicly, and frankly I don't see how any serious operative can still stick with Trump for 2024.

[morgankingsley]

I think that most people knew, regardless of if they liked it or not, that Trump was not going to win that night. I remember that night, and afterwards, when people were actually more shocked than anything else at how relatively close the election ended up being, as I remembered many people unironically thinking that Trump was only going to win the guaranteed 20 states, plus like Ohio, Iowa, and one of Florida and Texas, so the fact that he picked both up, and North Carolina to tie the state count, and almost won Georgia and Arizona as well was a shock

But to go back to the original question, I think that they probably knew deep down, but didn't want to say it to avoid any public reaction.

- Morgan Kingsley

December 7 2022

[Pres Mike]

I've read 8-9 books on the 2020 election

This seems to be the consensus.

Unlike 2016, Republican internal polling had Trump behind. But it did show him improving in the days leading up to the election. On election day, he was still behind but close enough that he could get lucky again. Around 8pm, things looked just like that, Trump was going to pull a upset.

Around midnight, campaign staff knew Trump was going to come up short. So did the Biden campaign and most media outlets.

To answer the OP question, yes and no. No, they did not have evidence of an upset unlike 2016. Yes they had some reason to be confident.

Of the 8-9 you read, is there one that really goes in depth and does a great job with the timeline of how the final stretch of the campaign went and what was going on within the Trump circles? If so, let me know which one. Really interested in reading one about that.

Let me remember than I will DM you. I bought them all on Amazon