What is causing Florida to become a red state?
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  What is causing Florida to become a red state?
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Author Topic: What is causing Florida to become a red state?  (Read 1844 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: March 11, 2023, 01:45:38 PM »

Why is Florida becoming so red so fast?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2023, 02:07:46 PM »

According to a now retired FL-based Democratic political strategist, the current problem's roots trace all the way back to early 2010, when some essential party operations were outsourced by the Florida Democratic Party to outside organizations. Since that time, Republicans have registered way more voters than Democrats, and this allowed Republicans to overtake Democrats in terms of raw numbers of registered voters (and this doesn't even take into account the people in northern FL who are registered as Democrats but who have been voting Republican in recent elections). On paper, FL has become more diverse over the past several decades, but many of the new non-whites who have registered to vote have registered as independents (or even Republicans, in the case of people from some Latin American countries) instead of Democrats. Of course, there's also the Democrats' struggles with white voters without higher education, which has manifested itself in them tanking in places like Pasco & Volusia, and losing ground in places like Palm Beach.
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MarkD
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« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2023, 10:24:55 PM »

It isn't. The margin of support for Trump in 2020 was less than 3.4 points. There were 19 truly red states that voted for him by margins at least three times larger.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2023, 02:10:56 PM »

A bajillion Boomer retirees, Cuban immigrants, and all the liberal oldies are 6 feet under or sitting in a jar on a bookshelf.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2023, 08:00:02 PM »

Dictatorial styles of government under Rick Scott and Ron De Santis with an increasingly-entrenched machine at the state level.
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Devils30
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« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2023, 03:23:09 PM »

1) South Florida Hispanics: Dems very poor at appealing to this group (that is very diverse within itself).  Some hate the socialist slogans coming from AOC- hard to think of any individual who has cost the Dems here more than her. That being said, many Cubans would love to set up a right wing junta to fight the commies and many have fantasies about doing it here in America.

2) Type of Florida transplants: A lot of WWC from midwest moving to Lee, Pasco, Polk, Volusia type places. These exurban counties are very large and growing and can offset Dem gains in Orlando, Jax and Tampa. With Miami metro moving right, the numbers just don't work for Dems. The Atlanta exurbs have nothing like this and neither do any in Texas. NC has some of these types of counties between Charlotte and Greensboro but they are smaller in scale than Florida.

3) Weak state party: We know the story.

4) People with problems: This might sound controversial but Florida gets a lot of America's problematic people. The Trump movement is a big attraction for the mentally ill and they have found a home in the sunshine state.
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FloridaMan1845
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« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2023, 08:08:23 PM »

Dictatorial styles of government under Rick Scott and Ron De Santis with an increasingly-entrenched machine at the state level.
⬆️ Is just pure cope.
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Snow Belt Republican
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« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2023, 04:49:48 AM »

The GOP is more suited to the state than the Dems, same as to how the Dems are better suited for California!
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2023, 06:16:30 AM »

Other posters pretty much covered most of the main ones. Cubans, oldies, it's all pretty cliché at this point really. Few more I think are worth adding:

1. Florida is one of the few remaining highly-urbanized states where people without a college degree (or a skilled trade with at least a few years of experience under their belt) have any level of economic mobility. Non-college people may be trending Republican nationwide, but this trend is largely driven by rural areas and small population centers. In most major metro areas, you're either a college grad in a very liberal white-collar bubble, or you're a non-college grad who's barely getting by and inclined to vote for the left. But Florida's economy is different than most heavily-urbanized states, in that it's less tech/STEM-heavy and offers more opportunities for non-college grads.

2. It's an attractive destination for conservatives. I think this narrative is exaggerated by terminally-online political nerds (so everyone on this site Angry ) because most people who move states do so for economic opportunities, not ideological motives. But there is a bit of self-selection in that Florida is one of the few places where the "Orange County Reaganite" lifestyle is still somewhat attainable. As for ideological motivation, DeSantis has given plenty of that, both in his culture war stances and approach to COVID.

3. It's a southern state, after all. Yes it's largely full of northeastern and midwestern transplants, but white Floridians with deep roots in Florida are southerners. There was still a Blue Dog element in rural Florida not too long ago, for example Bill Nelson did pretty well with them as recently at 2012. But at this point, Blue Dog Democrats have either been taken to the pound or are full-fledged Republicans now.
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2023, 12:51:07 PM »

Constant flooding in of Boomer retirees and Cuban Immigrants who have Communist PTSD
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Kamala’s side hoe
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« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2023, 01:46:32 PM »

Florida is one of the few remaining highly-urbanized states where people without a college degree (or a skilled trade with at least a few years of experience under their belt) have any level of economic mobility. Non-college people may be trending Republican nationwide, but this trend is largely driven by rural areas and small population centers. In most major metro areas, you're either a college grad in a very liberal white-collar bubble, or you're a non-college grad who's barely getting by and inclined to vote for the left. But Florida's economy is different than most heavily-urbanized states, in that it's less tech/STEM-heavy and offers more opportunities for non-college grads.

Nevada is (to my knowledge) the only other state that plausibly fits into this category, and even there R strength/D weakness seems more predicated on turnout patterns than voter persuasion.

Is this dynamic you speak of different in South Florida compared to the Orlando or Tampa areas?
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2023, 04:14:33 PM »

You cannot just chalk this up to Boomers, quite obviously ... largely Republican retirees have been heading to Florida for years, including during the span where Obama won it twice.  Florida has become an absolute mecca for Republicans - especially of middle to upper-middle class - who are sick of living in a blue state (either due to high taxes, high crime or annoyance at "woke culture" or whatever) but don't want to live in a "boring state" (WV may be red, but that doesn't make it more enticing to a Republican looking to move out of California/Illinois/New Jersey).

I think people really forget how many Republicans - even Trump voters - there still are in now-blue suburbs of super blue states.  As an anecdotal example, I have met at least as many right wingers from the wealthy NYC suburbs in NJ and CT as I have Democrats.  There are literally millions of these people, and post-COVID a lot of have decided to move.  Florida is a dynamic and growing state with warm weather, a wealthy economy, all different types of communities, low taxes and a governor who has made a name for himself by condemning excessive wokeness.  It's a Republican magnet right now.
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S019
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« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2023, 11:42:12 PM »

The biggest one is Democrats abandoning any attempts to appeal to Cuban voters. Something like bringing back the Cuban embargo would've been a very easy political win for Joe Biden with little economic consequence (since we don't get much from Cuba anyways). I think that the party also could've been a bit more aggressive in pushing back against far left ideas outside of the mainstream like single payer healthcare or defunding the police (note: I did not say reforming the police). Police reform is not toxic, but that particular slogan is and there are many ways to reform the police while still focusing on crime. These are the types of nuanced discussions Democrats need to be having to win back Florida.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2023, 01:23:49 PM »

^ On a slightly related tangent, I think the unique mixture of (A) traditional Southern Democratic/"Yellow Dog" voters dying off as in other Southern states AND (B) in-migration to Florida likely being much more Republican-leaning than other fast growing Sun Belt states has sort of stunned Democrats into some "embarrassing" defeats.  In a state like Georgia or possibly even soon North Carolina, Democratic losses among "traditional voters" that they won in the past (whether they died off or switched parties or whatever) were offset by (1) improved margins with former Republican voters usually in suburban areas and (2) very significant migration into the state from younger, more Democratic-leaning transplants.

In Florida, they effectively lose the first group while not only not having sufficient gains with the second group but likely even a net loss due to Republicans moving to FL in larger numbers than, say, AZ.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2023, 10:36:53 PM »

1. Mostly mass migrations of Americans towards the sunbelt. Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas and Arizona have all exploded in population.

Most of the people moving to Florida are conservative. This means retiring boomers, middle class families, immigrants etc.

2. I also suspect Republicans deciding to make Florida "their state" just as Democrats made California their symbolic HQ

3. Finally, Democrats in Florida kinda just gave up

In 2018, DeSantis won 4.076 million votes to Gillum 4.032 million with 62% turnout

In 2022, DeSantis won 4.6 million to Crist 3.1 million with 54% turnout

Its hard to calculate with population growth and turnout, but anywhere from 500-million Democratic voters were like "We aren't going to win, why bother"
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #15 on: April 20, 2023, 05:48:57 PM »

Other posters pretty much covered most of the main ones. Cubans, oldies, it's all pretty cliché at this point really. Few more I think are worth adding:

1. Florida is one of the few remaining highly-urbanized states where people without a college degree (or a skilled trade with at least a few years of experience under their belt) have any level of economic mobility. Non-college people may be trending Republican nationwide, but this trend is largely driven by rural areas and small population centers. In most major metro areas, you're either a college grad in a very liberal white-collar bubble, or you're a non-college grad who's barely getting by and inclined to vote for the left. But Florida's economy is different than most heavily-urbanized states, in that it's less tech/STEM-heavy and offers more opportunities for non-college grads.

2. It's an attractive destination for conservatives. I think this narrative is exaggerated by terminally-online political nerds (so everyone on this site Angry ) because most people who move states do so for economic opportunities, not ideological motives. But there is a bit of self-selection in that Florida is one of the few places where the "Orange County Reaganite" lifestyle is still somewhat attainable. As for ideological motivation, DeSantis has given plenty of that, both in his culture war stances and approach to COVID.

3. It's a southern state, after all. Yes it's largely full of northeastern and midwestern transplants, but white Floridians with deep roots in Florida are southerners. There was still a Blue Dog element in rural Florida not too long ago, for example Bill Nelson did pretty well with them as recently at 2012. But at this point, Blue Dog Democrats have either been taken to the pound or are full-fledged Republicans now.

Good insight, especially the part about non-college grad economic mobility.
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ReaganLimbaugh
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« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2023, 04:10:49 PM »

I can't believe I am agreeing with a RINO but the below is totally accuate.

 

You cannot just chalk this up to Boomers, quite obviously ... largely Republican retirees have been heading to Florida for years, including during the span where Obama won it twice.  Florida has become an absolute mecca for Republicans - especially of middle to upper-middle class - who are sick of living in a blue state (either due to high taxes, high crime or annoyance at "woke culture" or whatever) but don't want to live in a "boring state" (WV may be red, but that doesn't make it more enticing to a Republican looking to move out of California/Illinois/New Jersey).

I think people really forget how many Republicans - even Trump voters - there still are in now-blue suburbs of super blue states.  As an anecdotal example, I have met at least as many right wingers from the wealthy NYC suburbs in NJ and CT as I have Democrats.  There are literally millions of these people, and post-COVID a lot of have decided to move.  Florida is a dynamic and growing state with warm weather, a wealthy economy, all different types of communities, low taxes and a governor who has made a name for himself by condemning excessive wokeness.  It's a Republican magnet right now.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2023, 05:44:21 PM »

https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/anatomy-of-a-murder-democratic-party-florida

A very interesting piece by veteran Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who was Obama's Florida director in 2008.

He says it's because the Florida Democratic Party made the decision to outsource basic organizing and fundraising efforts to outside groups who didn't really understand the state, while the party itself atrophied.
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