Why has the narrative on Michigan changed?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I remember politicos 6-7 years ago talk about Michigan as a white working class state (Macomb county), but now it seems most of the narrative is that it is a suburban upscale state (Oakland, Kent). What happened in the last few years?

[Smash255]

I don't think the narrative has changed.  The state is still fairly working class, however not everything is black and white.  The state does have large sections that are middle to upper middle class educated suburban, and those areas have trended Democratic which has balanced out some of the white working class GOP trends.

[Skill and Chance]

A lot of people had sky high expectations for the GOP in the Midwest because we thought Trump was going to go full European big government cultural conservative.  The libertarians held their ground much better than expected circa 2017, meaning that Republicans also held their ground better than expected in the South/West but actually lost some ground in the North.   

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Politics is a balancing act and in a 50-50 state, if you are sacrificing some contingent in equal proportions to what you are gaining, you are back where you started from.

[Person Man]

A lot of people had sky high expectations for the GOP in the Midwest because we thought Trump was going to go full European big government cultural conservative.  The libertarians held their ground much better than expected circa 2017, meaning that Republicans also held their ground better than expected in the South/West but actually lost some ground in the North.    

My guess is that some states that either party made a run for will become part of the base while others will snap back. Just like how Democrats made a run for Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida, some of them are now fairly blue and others are becoming more conservative. For Republicans, they looked for the Great Lakes, and to a smaller extent, the Northeast. Republicans definitely snagged Ohio, Iowa, and perhaps even Wisconsin... but it looks like Michigan and Pennsylvania are snapping back.

[Skill and Chance]

A lot of people had sky high expectations for the GOP in the Midwest because we thought Trump was going to go full European big government cultural conservative.  The libertarians held their ground much better than expected circa 2017, meaning that Republicans also held their ground better than expected in the South/West but actually lost some ground in the North.    

My guess is that some states that either party made a run for will become part of the base while others will snap back. Just like how Democrats made a run for Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida, some of them are now fairly blue and others are becoming more conservative. For Republicans, they looked for the Great Lakes, and to a smaller extent, the Northeast. Republicans definitely snagged Ohio, Iowa, and perhaps even Wisconsin... but it looks like Michigan and Pennsylvania are snapping back.

I wouldn't make assumptions about Pennsylvania.  It has a lot of Dems who went really far out of their way to appeal to working class indies and barely won.  Also, the current Dem president was born there which almost certainly helped.  IMO it could be on its last leg for Dems and pretty gone once Biden leaves office.

[If my soul was made of stone]

A lot of people had sky high expectations for the GOP in the Midwest because we thought Trump was going to go full European big government cultural conservative.  The libertarians held their ground much better than expected circa 2017, meaning that Republicans also held their ground better than expected in the South/West but actually lost some ground in the North.    

My guess is that some states that either party made a run for will become part of the base while others will snap back. Just like how Democrats made a run for Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida, some of them are now fairly blue and others are becoming more conservative. For Republicans, they looked for the Great Lakes, and to a smaller extent, the Northeast. Republicans definitely snagged Ohio, Iowa, and perhaps even Wisconsin... but it looks like Michigan and Pennsylvania are snapping back.

I wouldn't make assumptions about Pennsylvania.  It has a lot of Dems who went really far out of their way to appeal to working class indies and barely won.  Also, the current Dem president was born there which almost certainly helped.  IMO it could be on its last leg for Dems and pretty gone once Biden leaves office.

Recent lackluster performances and losses by Dems in Pennsylvania, as I've documented elsewhere, were the product of suburban #realigners not swinging Dem enough to recoup the collapse in the outer "WWC" areas. This internal movement has been going on in Pennsylvania for ages: compare the 1992 and 1996 elections, which had a nearly identical topline margin but reams of internal Dem movement from west to east and "the regions" to larger metros. Growth and diversification are centered on the areas trending towards the Dems, as is often the case, while much of the rest of the state is shrinking. I think it'll stay competitive for quite a while going forward, especially if more Dems can thread the needle between appealing to both of these sides as Fetterman is so skillfully doing right now.

[Hope For A New Era]

A lot of people had sky high expectations for the GOP in the Midwest because we thought Trump was going to go full European big government cultural conservative.  The libertarians held their ground much better than expected circa 2017, meaning that Republicans also held their ground better than expected in the South/West but actually lost some ground in the North.    

My guess is that some states that either party made a run for will become part of the base while others will snap back. Just like how Democrats made a run for Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida, some of them are now fairly blue and others are becoming more conservative. For Republicans, they looked for the Great Lakes, and to a smaller extent, the Northeast. Republicans definitely snagged Ohio, Iowa, and perhaps even Wisconsin... but it looks like Michigan and Pennsylvania are snapping back.

I wouldn't make assumptions about Pennsylvania.  It has a lot of Dems who went really far out of their way to appeal to working class indies and barely won.  Also, the current Dem president was born there which almost certainly helped.  IMO it could be on its last leg for Dems and pretty gone once Biden leaves office.

Recent lackluster performances and losses by Dems in Pennsylvania, as I've documented elsewhere, were the product of suburban #realigners not swinging Dem enough to recoup the collapse in the outer "WWC" areas. This internal movement has been going on in Pennsylvania for ages: compare the 1992 and 1996 elections, which had a nearly identical topline margin but reams of internal Dem movement from west to east and "the regions" to larger metros. Growth and diversification are centered on the areas trending towards the Dems, as is often the case, while much of the rest of the state is shrinking. I think it'll stay competitive for quite a while going forward, especially if more Dems can thread the needle between appealing to both of these sides as Fetterman is so skillfully doing right now.

Nothing exemplifies this and top-of-the-ballot-down trends better than Joe Torsella winning in 2016 and losing in 2020.

[If my soul was made of stone]

A lot of people had sky high expectations for the GOP in the Midwest because we thought Trump was going to go full European big government cultural conservative.  The libertarians held their ground much better than expected circa 2017, meaning that Republicans also held their ground better than expected in the South/West but actually lost some ground in the North.    

My guess is that some states that either party made a run for will become part of the base while others will snap back. Just like how Democrats made a run for Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida, some of them are now fairly blue and others are becoming more conservative. For Republicans, they looked for the Great Lakes, and to a smaller extent, the Northeast. Republicans definitely snagged Ohio, Iowa, and perhaps even Wisconsin... but it looks like Michigan and Pennsylvania are snapping back.

I wouldn't make assumptions about Pennsylvania.  It has a lot of Dems who went really far out of their way to appeal to working class indies and barely won.  Also, the current Dem president was born there which almost certainly helped.  IMO it could be on its last leg for Dems and pretty gone once Biden leaves office.

Recent lackluster performances and losses by Dems in Pennsylvania, as I've documented elsewhere, were the product of suburban #realigners not swinging Dem enough to recoup the collapse in the outer "WWC" areas. This internal movement has been going on in Pennsylvania for ages: compare the 1992 and 1996 elections, which had a nearly identical topline margin but reams of internal Dem movement from west to east and "the regions" to larger metros. Growth and diversification are centered on the areas trending towards the Dems, as is often the case, while much of the rest of the state is shrinking. I think it'll stay competitive for quite a while going forward, especially if more Dems can thread the needle between appealing to both of these sides as Fetterman is so skillfully doing right now.

Nothing exemplifies this and top-of-the-ballot-down trends better than Joe Torsella winning in 2016 and losing in 2020.

The Republican in 2016 was held below 50% in Beaver and Cambria Counties, which powered a win even while underperforming HRC in #realigner land, and when the #trendz then came the Nice Guy Moderate Suburbanites were too concerned to make up for the death knell in the hinterlands.

[prag_prog]

I am more worried about Dem's long term prospects in Wisconsin than Pennsylvania

[DS0816]

I remember politicos 6-7 years ago talk about Michigan as a white working class state (Macomb county), but now it seems most of the narrative is that it is a suburban upscale state (Oakland, Kent). What happened in the last few years?

The use of inserting the word white before working class is meant to divide.

Michigan, with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, is now a bellwether state. They are the only three states which were carried by the United States presidential election winners of the last four cycles—2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—and the path to the White House now goes through these three Rust Belt states.

I think enough forum members recognize this. But there are numerous who will take any of these three states and suggest that, perhaps, they are not such bellwether states but have a slight Lean to either of the two major political parties. No.

Since people are also conscious of a given U.S. presidential election’s tipping-point state, there is no avoiding the existence, for a given time, of bellwether states. This is where the current Michigan—along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—is at.

[pbrower2a]

Trump won in 2016, which may be the result of Russian meddling. The Democrats' voter access program was hacked, and that messed up the Democratic campaign efforts. Michigan Democrats depend heavily upon voter canvassing.

In 2020 the Democrats had made their electoral software secure. 2022 was a mediocre year for Democrats in Michigan, probably because COVID-19 messed up canvassing. In 2024 that is likely to be no problem.

Michiganders now recognize the extreme right as a menace, in view of the plot to kidnap Governor Whitmer in their own state and the Capitol Putsch. Full effects of the Capitol Putsch may not be evident from the 2022 election, but those effects could be getting worse for Republicans in a Presidential year. Canvassing will likely be back, and Democrats probably have much going for them. 

[Jim Crow]

Trump won in 2016, which may be the result of Russian meddling. The Democrats' voter access program was hacked, and that messed up the Democratic campaign efforts. Michigan Democrats depend heavily upon voter canvassing.

In 2020 the Democrats had made their electoral software secure. 2022 was a mediocre year for Democrats in Michigan, probably because COVID-19 messed up canvassing. In 2024 that is likely to be no problem.

Michiganders now recognize the extreme right as a menace, in view of the plot to kidnap Governor Whitmer in their own state and the Capitol Putsch. Full effects of the Capitol Putsch may not be evident from the 2022 election, but those effects could be getting worse for Republicans in a Presidential year. Canvassing will likely be back, and Democrats probably have much going for them. 

We're allowed to talk about 2016 being rigged, but not 2020?  Disclaimer- I do not think either election was rigged.

[Agonized-Statism]

The populist-neoliberal realignment anticipated around 2015-2018 didn't materialize as much as expected (yet?). The Democrats' pivot away from free trade probably helped.