MN-SEN 2024 megathread

[TDAS04]

?

[Schiff for Senate]

If she runs, 10-20% for sure (10-15% or 15% is the real question, so you should’ve honestly made the two separate options in the poll rather than combine them). But she might not run.

I assumed she runs and voted 10-20%.

[Calthrina950]

Double digits, ~10-20%. She won't crack 60% again due to increasing polarization, but should still run well ahead of the "Generic D" baseline.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably high single digits.

[ProgressiveModerate]

She should be just fine and will definitely overperform the top of the ticket. I agree polarization will make things for difficult but given all the other seats up, I really don’t think Rs will invest too much into this race at the end of the day and fail to nationalize it big time. Klobuchar + 11 but there’s still a p big range given how far out were are.

[JM1295]

If she runs, 10-20% for sure (10-15% or 15% is the real question, so you should’ve honestly made the two separate options in the poll rather than combine them). But she might not run.

I assumed she runs and voted 10-20%.

Wait, why would she not run? I haven't heard anything about Klobuchar not being interested in seeking reelection and she has seniority and has shown herself to be a really effective legislator. I'd be surprised if she didn't run for reelection.

[Minnesota Mike]

Over 20% but it could be close to that. She has won her past 3 elections by 20, 35 and 24%. Sure partisanship may cut that margin down a bit but she is really is the most popular politician in MN since Hubert Humphry and I have no idea who the Republicans can find above a C list candidate to run against her. Only thing that can stop her from winning the Senate seat in a landslide would be if Biden does not run for re-election and she runs for President again.

[Schiff for Senate]

If she runs, 10-20% for sure (10-15% or 15% is the real question, so you should’ve honestly made the two separate options in the poll rather than combine them). But she might not run.

I assumed she runs and voted 10-20%.

Wait, why would she not run? I haven't heard anything about Klobuchar not being interested in seeking reelection and she has seniority and has shown herself to be a really effective legislator. I'd be surprised if she didn't run for reelection.

Can’t be certain and she has been in the Senate for some time. I have no particular reason to assume she’s retiring in 2024 - and indeed, she’s said nothing publicly indicating such - but we can’t really foresee her retiring and if she later announced she wasn’t seeking another term, I wouldn’t be too shocked. Still, yep, no particular reason to assume she’s retiring, probably a >50% chance she runs again, and for the purpose of the poll I assumed that she does.

[Schiff for Senate]

Over 20% but it could be close to that. She has won her past 3 elections by 20, 35 and 24%. Sure partisanship may cut that margin down a bit but she is really is the most popular politician in MN since Hubert Humphry and I have no idea who the Republicans can find above a C list candidate to run against her. Only thing that can stop her from winning the Senate seat in a landslide would be if Biden does not run for re-election and she runs for President again.

Nah it’s going to be under 20. As you yourself noted, despite the 2018 environment being very good for the Democrats, Klobuchar did 11 points worse than in 2012. Why? Because, as the county maps clearly show, her crossover support in rural areas decreased quite a bit, though she still greatly outperformed Clinton/Biden in most rural areas. 2024 will not be a blue wave and I expect the rurals to move quite a lot to the right (until now, Klobuchar has carried every CD in every one of her races - I expect that, for one thing, to change, with the Trump+30 district in western MN, the 7th, which ousted 15-term Blue Dog incumbent Collin Peterson in 2020, rejecting her by double-digits, along with another district or even two). So ya…that will happen enough for Klobuchar to win by quite a bit less than 20 points.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

If 2024 is a neutral year, I would say something between 15 and 18 points seems reasonable.

[NewYorkExpress]

Assuming she doesn't run for President again (she's not primarying Biden, she's not going to enter a suicide bid against Harris as her past as a DA would be even more of a liability there since Harris since Harris has a similar background, all she'd do is sink both candidacies, but she'd probably run in a race where neither Biden or Harris run, and especially if the early frontrunner is someone like Buttigeig, as she could probably beat him in a primary.), Klobuchar would be a favorite for reelection, barring Minnesota Republicans dusting off someone like Tim Pawlenty (and Pawlenty getting through the primary), or Jesse Ventura deciding to run as the Green Party nominee (I think Ventura could win a Senate election as a third party candidate-he's done it in a Gubernatorial race before). That said, Partisanship, plus the nature of Minnesota, means Klobuchar wins by no more 10-12 points.

[Minnesota Mike]

Assuming she doesn't run for President again (she's not primarying Biden, she's not going to enter a suicide bid against Harris as her past as a DA would be even more of a liability there since Harris since Harris has a similar background, all she'd do is sink both candidacies, but she'd probably run in a race where neither Biden or Harris run, and especially if the early frontrunner is someone like Buttigeig, as she could probably beat him in a primary.), Klobuchar would be a favorite for reelection, barring Minnesota Republicans dusting off someone like Tim Pawlenty (and Pawlenty getting through the primary), or Jesse Ventura deciding to run as the Green Party nominee (I think Ventura could win a Senate election as a third party candidate-he's done it in a Gubernatorial race before). That said, Partisanship, plus the nature of Minnesota, means Klobuchar wins by no more 10-12 points.

Pawlenty or Ventura beating Klobuchar? LOL no.  Pawlenty was never that popular, never got 50% in either election and was last seen getting embarrassed in the 2018 Gov primary. Almost positive he is done with electoral politics.  Ventura has gone full conspiracy nut and I'm not even sure he lives in Minnesota any more. Says a lot about the state of the  Republican bench  that Pawlenty is the first name people bring up when it comes to a possible candidate for any race. Part of the reason I believe Klobuchar wins by 20+ is what quality Republican would make a suicide run against her?

[Senator Incitatus]

she's not going to enter a suicide bid against Harris

There is no such thing as a "suicide bid" against Harris. She got fewer votes than Joe Sestak in 2020 and would be a heavy underdog for the nomination.

[NewYorkExpress]

she's not going to enter a suicide bid against Harris

There is not such thing as a "suicide bid" against Harris. She got fewer votes than Joe Sestak in 2020 and would be a heavy underdog for the nomination.

She also would be the sitting Vice President in 2024, and thus would be heavy favorite against almost any challenger by default (when was the last time a Vice President who ran for their parties nomination, lost said nomination?)

[Senator Incitatus]

she's not going to enter a suicide bid against Harris

There is not such thing as a "suicide bid" against Harris. She got fewer votes than Joe Sestak in 2020 and would be a heavy underdog for the nomination.

She also would be the sitting Vice President in 2024, and thus would be heavy favorite against almost any challenger by default (when was the last time a Vice President who ran for their parties nomination, lost said nomination?)

No Vice President who was as unpopular as Harris is has ever even run for the nomination, so you're suffering from an extreme selection bias. A majority of the sitting Vice Presidents nominated had previously been credible presidential contenders in their own right; none had mounted an embarrassing fringe run like Harris's. If, e.g., Cheney had run in 2008, he would have been washed out of the primary.

She was picked for the job specifically because she isn't a credible successor and therefore preempts any efforts to get Biden to resign or forego a 2024 run due to his age. Nevertheless, she has a chance in 2024 or 2028 if she is the unpopular sitting President (see Ford and Carter), which is why she took the offer.

[Schiff for Senate]

If 2024 is a neutral year, I would say something between 15 and 18 points seems reasonable.

Maybe, but then probably on the lower side of that.

[Squirrel Nut]

I think Pete Stauber runs against her.

[BloJo94]

I think Ilhan Omar should try to primary Klobuchar.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Ilhan Omar should try to primary Klobuchar.

Lol Chairman KLOBUCHAR is part of Judicial committee and Chairman of the Rules committee we are gonna easily win MN, WI, PA, MI, AZ, VA, CO and NV

The hard states are TX, MT, WVA and OH but red states are more purple in Prez, as O can see Andy Beshear and Josh Stein easily winning reelected

[Utah Neolib]

I think Ilhan Omar should try to primary Klobuchar.

Omar should try harder not to get primaried in her own district.

[S019]

I think Ilhan Omar should try to primary Klobuchar.

Omar should try harder not to get primaried in her own district.

Nah, she should go for it. A suicide run against Klobuchar would be the easiest way to get rid of her.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Ilhan Omar should try to primary Klobuchar.

Omar should try harder not to get primaried in her own district.

Nah, she should go for it. A suicide run against Klobuchar would be the easiest way to get rid of her.

I don't get why so many Democrats hate Omar.

[Ferguson97]

I think Ilhan Omar should try to primary Klobuchar.

Omar should try harder not to get primaried in her own district.

Nah, she should go for it. A suicide run against Klobuchar would be the easiest way to get rid of her.

I don't get why so many Democrats hate Omar.

As the party of social acceptance, inclusion, and tolerance, we are generally opposed to anti-semitism.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Easy KLOBUCHAR win in MN

[Dani Rose]

I think Ilhan Omar should try to primary Klobuchar.

Omar should try harder not to get primaried in her own district.

Nah, she should go for it. A suicide run against Klobuchar would be the easiest way to get rid of her.

I don't get why so many Democrats hate Omar.

As the party of social acceptance, inclusion, and tolerance, we are generally opposed to anti-semitism.

Yeah, basically this. She's the only member of the Squad who has actively parroted anti-Semitic buzzwords. I'm a democratic socialist from Omar's state and not even I want her 99% of the time.

Anyway, Klobuchar wins it in a walk. Let's say about 15%.