Nah, if she goes (and its likelier that she doesn't, despite everything) it is much more likely to be next year. If things are so bad in mid-2024 that a leadership challenge looks feasible, it is also likely that things are so fundamentally awful for the Tories that they are beyond salvation anyway.
Agree with this - once you get into an election year, it's totally impractical to change leader, and would only really happen if their health failed or were credibly charged with a significant crime. Better to suck it up for the election, and then fight the ideological battles once you've limped into opposition.
So the only time Truss could feasibly be removed would be during 2023, once the country has rebounded from the current uncertainty - on both the constitutional and energy front, and before the party starts writing it's 2024 manifesto.
And even that's a pretty negligible chance - she'd have to get all the big calls wrong to squander enough goodwill to trigger a confidence vote within 6 months.
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