Chilean Elections and General Discussion. Municipal and Regional elections, October 27th, 2024

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

As to "ciudadania", we of course had the centrist to (barely) center-left Ciudadanos (2018-2022) as a political party, a renaming of Andrés Velasco's - the former Finance Minister and 2013 independent presidential candidate in the Nueva Mayoria primaries - party "Fuerza Pública". Rather predictably, it only appealed to centrist liberals in Santiago (the wealthy communes, that is), which as we can all agree are not a major demographic. Never got more than 0,5% of the vote and got dissolved.

I assume this was an (even more failed than the original) attempt to copy the Spanish party with the same name, yes?

[Lumine]

I assume this was an (even more failed than the original) attempt to copy the Spanish party with the same name, yes?

Pretty much! The change took place in 2015 - right before the Spanish election in which C's had the first breakthrough -, and Velasco drew explicit parallels between his movement and Rivera. It was also a better name than the other alternative they voted on, which was to call themselves... Plural. In general, Chilean politicians have no idea how to name parties.

En el equipo de Velasco coinciden en que hay semejanzas con su símil español: ambos movimientos se catalogan de liberales de centro y tienen un discurso de combatir la “vieja política” y se presentan como alternativa a los dos principales bloques históricos representados por la centroderecha y la centroizquierda en cada país.

In Velasco's team there's agreement that there are similarities with their Spanish counterpart: both movements view themselves as centrist liberals, have a discourse of fighting "old politics", and stand as an alternative to the two main blocs represented by the center-right and center-left in each country.

Fun fact: 2021 Chile Vamos nominee Sebastián Sichel came from Ciudadanos, and left the party alongside the right-wing after a botched leadership election. Our Ciudadanos, however, made a point in always siding with the center-left (or rather, the Christian Democrats). Rumor has it that after the first round in 2017, Sebastian Piñera offered Velasco a ministry (said to have been Foreign Affairs) and Velasco turned him down, refusing to endorse him or Guillier.

[kaoras]

3 deputies of PDG resigned Yovana Ahumada, Víctor Pino y Roberto Arroyo over the refusal of the party to sign the constitutional accord and because the party didn't do anything over Gaspar Rivas calling them "conchesumares" (mother*ckers). However, they will remain in the PDG caucus.

Yeah, about that, the other parliamentary faction doesn't want anything with them and asked to dissolve the PDG caucus to form a new one without them.

These deputies will need to find a new caucus, and the press is speculating they will join the "Social Christian Center Caucus" formed by ex-DCs (rightists faction) and ex-RNs

[kaoras]

Polling has middling ratings for the Constitutional deal.

CADEM has 51% approval for the deal, 46% disapproval. Support is higher with the right (64%) and Reject voters (59%). Disapproval higher with the left (57%) and Approve voters (53%). Although 55% think the process is going to be better than the last one.

Activa has 36-32% support for the deal, but with the Left supporting it more... Yeah I'm going to go with CADEM on this one.

CADEM also has voting intention for the constituent elections (changes from 18th November poll I forgot to post)

Chile Vamos 12% (-1)
Republican Party 10% (nc)
Communist Party 8% (+3)
Partido de la Gente 8% (-6)
Frente Amplio 7% (nc)
Independents 5%
Amarillos 4%
Demócratas 4%
Socialismo Democrático 4%
DC 3% (-2)

Right (CHV+REP) 22%
Pro-Government Left (PC+FA+SD) 19%
Amarillos-Demócratas-DC: 11%
PDG 8%

Now, in practice neither Amarillos nor Demócratas will be able to contest the constituent elections. Amarillos at least are studying going as independents in Chile Vamos lists. Chile Vamos want a unity list with all reject forces, but is unlikely that Amarillos and Republicans will want to be in the same list.

The Alianza de Gobierno is going on a united list and invited the DC to join them, which was rejected by their president saying that they wanted a list with PPD-PR-PL and "maybe PS if they want it". That proposal will go nowhere and most likely DC will end alone.

[xelas81]

is the convention wisdom is that new constitutional referendum will fail again?

[kaoras]

is the convention wisdom is that new constitutional referendum will fail again?

No, among pundits the CW is that everything will be wonderful now with the experts.

BTW, the Chamber of Deputies approved the bill that makes voting compulsory for all elections and plebiscites except primaries. Is now ready to become law. However it doesn't specify penalties, that's another bill still being discussed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is gonna be a sh*tshow

[CumbrianLefty]

This is gonna be a sh*tshow

Same as usual, then.

[kaoras]

In the end the election will be on May 14th.
The "expert" council will have 24 people named by congress according to political strength in there (50/50 left-right/PDG currently) and will have a 3/5 quorum

The elected council will also have a quorum of 3/5. In case of disagreement a mixed committee between "experts" and the elected council will resolve also for 3/5.

So, I'm left to wonder, why are we even bothering with elections if the experts will have veto power over everything? There're literally 0 consequences for the elections in May, even if the left (or somehow the right) falls below 3/5, they will still have half of the expert comitee to block anything they don't like.

Anyway, congratulations to everyone for the glorified Comisión Ortuzar 2.0, I'm sure there won't be any deadlock whatsoever considering the very tight schedule (around 6 months)

[Lumine]

The government has gotten itself in quite a crisis over the past two weeks, as President Boric decided to issue presidential pardons for a dozen people convicted of various offenses during the 2019-2020 protests (plus Jorge Mateluna, a leftist former guerilla). Aside from the controversy of it - it undermined the Interior Minister and killed ongoing talks with the opposition regarding security and crime measures -, the crisis developed further when it emerged there had been several irregularities and/or lack of proper info and context during the process, and that several of those pardoned had extensive criminal records prior to 2019.

Thus far, President Boric has already sacrificed Marcela Rios, the Justice Minister - already on the chopping block due to an unsuccessful tenure -, who is undergoing impeachment in Congress (Giorgio Jackson, the President's closest friend and political ally, is also facing impeachment due to unrelated causes). The government has done its best to move away from the crisis, but a series of very unfortunate - to put it mildly - public statements have kept the pardon controversy on the headlines. The disapproval rating for the government hit 70% for the first time (CADEM poll, so treat with some caution), so... they're not having the best start for the year.

_________

Also, the new Constituent process sailed through Congress! This in itself isn't a surprise, but it was a far smoother process than expected despite dedicated attempts - by a number of dissident parliamentarians, both on the right and left - to wreck it via amendments. Those parties that signed the new agreement proved to be rather ruthless in pushing it through, so we get the following calendar:

-January: The Expert Council is voted upon by Congress.
-March 6th: Expert Council starts to work.
-May 7th: Constituent Council elections.
-June 7th: Council starts to work, based on the previous work by the Expert Council.
-December 17th: Plebiscite.

So it all goes well, we could end up the year with a new Constitution. On a personal basis I'm optimistic about the whole thing, but there's absolutely no guarantee Reject (this time powered by the disgruntled right AND the disgruntled left) wins again. I dare say the process and its perception may be more vital than the eventual text itself.

Negotiations are ongoing regarding the Constituent elections, and it's starting to become clear that the thesis of unitary lists for the government and the opposition (so as not to lose seats due to D'hondt rewarding unity) looks like a very distant possibility.

From the government, there's pressure from Apruebo Dignidad and the Socialist for unity, and much resistance from the more center-left areas (PR, PL, PPD). It's likely that we'll see a list for Apruebo Dignidad, and one from the old Concertación (including the rump Christian Democrats).

On the right, the Partido Republicano (PRep) has led the charge against the accord and the relationship with Chile Vamos has become severely strained, which makes it likely that we'll see separate lists (the Republicans on one side, RN, UDI and Evópoli on the other).

On the "center", Amarillos will not be taking part in the election, they have struggled massively to gather signatures to form a party, and don't seem keen to run as independents in one of the main lists. It's not entirely clear what Demócratas will do, and the same goes to PDG. To add further uncertainty, Franco Parisi has apparently solved his judicial situation, and is likely to make his return to Chile.

[kaoras]

Congress designated its "experts for the constituent process"





The parties struggled to meet the parity quota and it shows, Katherine Martorell for RN is the shining example that right wing Think Thanks really need more women.

Others like Magaly Fuenzalida (0 qualifications in constitutional matters outside being a member of FRVS), Hernán Larraín (defender of nazi sect Colonia Dignidad ) and Maximo "Pinochet wasn't a dictatorship" Pavéz are also very "cringe" (to put it in a nihilistic way, honestly I can't really be bothered to care at this point), but well, in the case of the latter 2 what else can you expect from the right.

In electoral matters, the dust still isn't settled on the configurations of the electoral pacts. Is practically inevitable that the government forces will go in 2 lists. The main question mark is PS, which in theory decides today. The party is still pushing hard for a unified list, but it seems it will have to choose whether going with AD or with the rest of SD+DC. The press has no idea what will happen. La Tercera says it will choose to revive the Concertación yet again, Ex-Ante says it will choose AD and Emol says it will do nothing today besides calling for a unified list again.

Bachelet also called for a unified list and expressed interest in being a candidate for the constituent elections as longs as that happens (though I think that maybe she will still run if PS chooses AD)

Republicanos and Chile Vamos are going in separate lists and there are rumors that the former could ally with PDG (PDG online poll showed a 50/50 split on whether running alone or in alliances, with Republicanos being the preferred partner)  

[kaoras]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EncuestasChil10/status/1619749385625288704

Poll from Pulso Ciudadano, most accurate pollster in the last plebiscite. It also shows that 55% have little or no trust in the new process.

Other scenarios:
-Left Unity List

AD+SD+DC: 20.3%
PDG: 11.8%
CHV: 10.4%
REP: 7,5%

-Left and Right Joint lists

AD+SD+DC: 22.8%
CHV+REP: 15%
PDG:12.6%

Very funny poll considering that many pundits and Concertación  dinosaurs were saying that they didn't want to subsidize AD in a joint list, when it would be the other way around.

Of the tiny % that identifies with SD, 30% would vote for AD if they run separate lists

[Mike88]

Eish... 53% don't know who to vote. This election will be very, very difficult to predict, especially with the mandatory voting thing.

[kaoras]

PS was supposed to choose yesterday but again delayed their decision to try to pressure PPD in accepting a unity list. PPD today said again that it will not yield, but that is open to "Omission pacts" in regions that elects only 2 seats.  

The press now seems confident that PS will choose AD, and that the Liberal Party will follow them. Thus, the most likely escenario would be a list of AD+PS+PL and another of PPD-PR-DC. The latter list would be really weak IMO.

On other new, PDG surprised saying they will form an electoral pact (Parisi had said some days ago that they would run alone), and that their partner will be announced tomorrow. Everyone assumes their partner is Republicanos, because they don't have many other options (I think the rump Humanist Party -now without Jiles- and a small evangelical party managed to gather enough signatures, if it were one of them it would be an epic troll move)

A significant part of the PDG electorate would take a pact with Republicanos rather badly, but PDG is between a rock and a hard place. Even though this will cost them many votes, it is still better for them in term of seats, given that the districts only have between 2-5 seats.

[Lumine]

The ex-Concertacion can make do without PL (though they're likely to get a seat due to strength in Arica), but they're ____ed without PS. Particularly now that the DC is such a hollow shell they're actually drafting Andres Zaldivar to run in May.

I actually think unity lists are overrated since some voters would balk from the whole left or whole right package, but the DC-PPD-PR list is going to get steamrolled. Their only hope would be that mandatory voting suddenly produces moderate voters who didn't bother showing up before.

[kaoras]

The ex-Concertacion can make do without PL (though they're likely to get a seat due to strength in Arica), but they're ____ed without PS. Particularly now that the DC is such a hollow shell they're actually drafting Andres Zaldivar to run in May.

I actually think unity lists are overrated since some voters would balk from the whole left or whole right package, but the DC-PPD-PR list is going to get steamrolled. Their only hope would be that mandatory voting suddenly produces moderate voters who didn't bother showing up before.

Ex Ante says that PPD know that, but they are betting on "Positioning" themselves for the future as more moderate, basically give the party an identity after the "generic left" vote went to FA.

It's true that unity lists lose votes, but the problem is that the extra % are going straight to the trash bin with such a weak list as in the case of PPD-PR-DC. If there are going to be 2 lists on the left, from a purely electoral viewpoint it would be better for PS and PL to revive the Concertación, but the internal PS shift against reviving that old corpse yet again seems pretty deep.

Also, I read on Twitter that PDG pact will be "with the people" (ie running alone), which would be even more trollish. Not unlikely given that someone in the press would have some scoops about a pact with Republicanos but so far there isn't any.

[Lumine]

Also, I read on Twitter that PDG pact will be "with the people" (ie running alone), which would be even more trollish. Not unlikely given that someone in the press would have some scoops about a pact with Republicanos but so far there isn't any.

...god I hate PDG and their brand of populism.

I'm going to be miserable then they have that planned circus of a Carter-Jiles-Parisi presidential primary.

[kaoras]

Well, PDG pact was, in fact, a "pact with the people", so they will run alone.


PPD confirmed, this time 100% definitely and for real, that it will run on a separate list with PR and the DC, but the steps to get there were hilariously dramatic. Guido Guirardi, a prominent machine leader who infamously rejected the possibility of a unity list by saying that it would be the "lista del indulto", suddenly realiced that the ex concertación is doomed without PS started an internal party offensive to reverse course and run in a joint list. Many historic party figures (most of them former Bachelet ministers) also threatened to quit the party if there wasn't a unity list and some potential candidates started to have second thoughts. I seriously thought we could see a single leftist list when DC president said that they were serious parties that didn't change positions overnight.

In the end, PPD president Natalia Piergentili didn't blink and won the struggle. She will lead the pact in the Metropolitan region (for context, she ran for the Senate there and got 0,6% in 2021) and announced several dinosaurs former deputies and minister as candidates.

[kaoras]

Inscriptions were yesterday. There will be only 5 lists and the process wasn't as clownish as usual, but PPD still provided stupidity.

After fighting heavily for a separate list, insisting in that they wanted a moderate, serious and responsible pact that could attract reject voters, Twitter found out that PPD was going to run Pablo Maltés, Pamela Jiles husband, in Valparaíso. After a lot of outcry, they ended up dropping that candidature.

In general the electoral lists are full of nobodies, dinosaurs, ex congressmen from the 90's and obscure ex authorities. This is because the heavy inhabilities that the councilmen will face (will not be able to run until 2028). Bachelet also decided not to run.

Anyway, the logos and names of the lists (this year they covered themselves in glory with originality):

Unidad Para Chile (AD-PS-PL) _{"Unity for Chile"}



Todo por Chile (PPD-PR-DC) _{"Everything for Chile"}



Chile Seguro (Chile Vamos) _{"Safe Chile"}


Partido de la Gente _{"Party of the People"}



Partido Republicano _{"Republican Party"}



Additionally, the far-right evangelical "Partido Social Cristiano" will run candidates as independents in Araucanía and Aysén.

[xelas81]

Are none of the independent lists from last constituent assembly running again?

[kaoras]

Are none of the independent lists from last constituent assembly running again?

This time independent list weren't allowed. A few independent candidates (alone, not on lists) will probably run, but they will have a hard time getting elected.

The date of the election also meant that many minor parties (especially on the left) weren't able to re-register in time, that's why there are so few lists

[kaoras]

Political update:

Most of summer was spent facing a wave of forest fires in the centre-south. Polls have middling approval for the government response but nevertheless Boric got a small bump out of it: Boric approval is 32% in Cadem (best since November), 27% in Activa (best since September) and 39% in Criteria (actually his second best ever on that poll). So overall, we went up from high 20s to low 30s. This is coupled with a more resilient than expected economy (Hacienda minister Mario Marcel basically gets to gloat every month that the economic data is much better than expected to analysts, lambasting their "catastrophist" predictions)

It remains to be seen if that will last, in the last days a scandal broke out about a RD deputy Maite Orsini which called a police general after the arrest of his boyfriend, footballer Jorge Valdivia. In any case, there's a cabinet reshuffle coming and it will be mostly focused on giving their "fair share" of lower level administrative positions in the ministries and regional governments to PS and PPD.

Campaign for the constituent elections starts next Wednesday. And there are a few polls:

UDD for Metropolitan Region.

Unidad para Chile 15%
Chile Seguro 15%
Republican Party 9%
Todo por Chile 6%
PDG 5%
DK/NA: 50%

Activa nationwide.

Chile Seguro 10,1%
Unidad para Chile 10%
Republican Party 7,5%
Todo por Chile 5,9%
PDG 5%
DK/NA: 61,5%

Compared with their escenario poll the left is down but it seems that is because the name change confused low info voters. 49% of leftwingers don't know which list to vote for, compared with only 23% of right wingers. The crosstabs are very small but is still hilarious that according to Activa, Todos por Chile polls better among those on the right (6,7%) than on the left (6,5%). Other than that, Chile Seguro is up at the expense of Republicanos and PDG is also down a lot (maybe related with the return of Parisi to Chile that reminded voters that PDG has baggage and is in disarray).

Speaking of PDG, infamous deputy Gaspar Rivas was expelled because of insults and agressions, so they are down to 2 deputies. The ones who quitted earlier will form a new party "Avancemos Chile" (lets go on/advance Chile) focused on Northern interests.

[kaoras]

Political update:

Most of summer was spent facing a wave of forest fires in the centre-south. Polls have middling approval for the government response but nevertheless Boric got a small bump out of it: Boric approval is 32% in Cadem (best since November), 27% in Activa (best since September) and 39% in Criteria (actually his second best ever on that poll). So overall, we went up from high 20s to low 30s.

Now up to 35% in CADEM, best since September. This was also influenced by the almost universal approval of the deployment of the army to control the irregular mass migration on the northern border. This deployment is mostly toothless and apparently not very efective since Bolivia refuses to take back migrants that aren't Bolivian citizens, but hey, optics were good!

On the constitutional front, the Expert Committee and the "Admissibility technical committee" (the committees that will actually write the new proposal) started functioning today and elected their leadership and sub-committee composition by consensus.



The left got the presidency with feminist lawyer Verónica Undurraga, the right the vice presidency and 3/4 of the subcommittee presidencies. All subcommittees are equally divided between Left+DC and Right+PDG

The Admisibility committee will be presided by Ana María García (EVOPOLI)

[kaoras]

New Data Influes Poll



So..., remember how I always say that this poll has a left-bias? Lol. They also have Boric up 12% to 38%.

In any case, there are 3 main takeaways we can take from this and the other polls. First is that Chile Vamos and Republicanos are not that far off from each other, although with advantage for CHV. Second is that Unidad Para Chile 2 or 3 times bigger than Todos x Chile which is struggling massively (Mind you that the geniuses at PPD wanted to pospone the imminent cabinet reshuffle until after the elections to prove their "weight") And third, PDG also seems to be struggling.

[kaoras]

Yesterday the governmentt suffered a heavy legislative defeat, the Chamber of Deputies reject the idea to legislate their Tax Reform with 73 votes in favor of doing so and 71 against (quorum was 78). The governmentt could insist in the Senate but they would need 2/3 and that is almost impossible, so they are assessing what to do (they can't present the same project until next year)

Hacienda minister Mario Marcel lambasted the opposition:

Who will celebrate today? We see that the parties to the right of the political spectrum will celebrate. I am sure that those who evade taxes and those who advise them will celebrate, because they will have at least one more full year to be able to continue using the same tax avoidance mechanisms (...) We will surely also have a celebration of big capital, which will no longer be subject to wealth tax. Surely the lobbyists will also celebrate (...)

The opposition criticized the government for not negotiating with them and said some platitudes about how the reform was bad for the middle class and small business (it isn't, according to OCDE, but they have to say that obviously)

This reform was supposed to finance other governmentt goals such as pension reform and so on. Key to the failure was the absence of humanist and ecologist deputies of the chamber over an incident between Education Minister and an ecologist deputy yesterday.