2025-29 -A Blank Canvas (user search)

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Jr. Member
Posts: 291
United States

Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

« on: September 08, 2022, 04:32:06 PM »

Sounds good! Have not wrapped Inauguration Day on the OG Blank Canvas, but I'm working on that...
Jr. Member
Posts: 291
United States

Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2022, 02:57:20 PM »

With apologies for stealing, here is the corrected version of 2016's entry with regards to the classes in which the Senators are elected from. 1 = Class 1 Senator next up for election in 2030, 2 = 2026, and 3 = 2028. Class II will be up for election in the midterms...


Republican Majority Leader: John Cornyn of Texas
Republican Majority Whip: John Thune of South Dakota
Republican Conference Chairwoman: Joni Ernst of Iowa
Chairman Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee: Adam Laxalt of Nevada

Democratic Minority Leader: Charles "Chuck" Schumer of New York
Democratic Minority Whip: Mark Warner of Virginia
Democratic Conference Chairwoman: Patty Murray of Washington State
Chairman Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee: Chris van Hollen of Maryland

2. Tommy Tuberville (R)
3. Katie Britt (R)
2. Dan Sullivan (R)
3. Kelly Tshibaka (R)
1. Kyrsten Sinema (D)
3. Mark Kelly (D)
2. Tom Cotton (R)
3. John Boozman (R)
1. Kevin McCarthy (R)
3. Alex Padilla (D)
2. John Hickenlooper (D)
3. Michael Bennet (D)
1. Chris Murphy (D)
3. Richard Blumenthal (D)
1. Ben DuPont (R)
2. Chris Coons (D)
1. Rick Scott (R)
3. Marco Rubio (R)
2. Jon Ossoff (D)
3. Herschel Walker (R)

1. Kai Kahele (D)
3. Brian Schatz (D)
2. Jim Risch (R)
3. Mike Crapo (R)
2. Dick Durbin (D)
3. Tammy Duckworth (D)
1. Mike Braun (R)
3. Todd Young (R)
2. Joni Ernst (R)
3. Chuck Grassley (R)
2. Roger Marshall (R)
3. Jerry Moran (R)
2. Daniel Cameron (R)
3. Rand Paul (R)
2. Bill Cassidy (R)
3. John Neely Kennedy (R)
1. Rick Bennett (R)
2. Susan Collins (R)
1. John Sarbanes (D)
3. Chris Van Hollen (D)
1. Elizabeth Warren (D)
2. Ed Markey (D)
1. John James (R)
2. Gary Peters (D)
1. Michelle Tafoya (R)
2. Tina Smith (DFL)
1. Roger Wicker (R)
2. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

1. Josh Hawley (R)
3. Eric Schmitt (R)

1. Matt Rosendale (R)
2. Steve Daines (R)
1. Deb Fischer (R)
2. Ben Sasse (R)
1. Sam Brown (R)
3. Adam Laxalt (R)
New Hampshire
2. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
3. Chuck Morse (R)
New Jersey
1. Mehmet Öz (R)
2. Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico
1. Mark Ronchetti (R)
2. Ben Ray Lujan (D)
New York
1. Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
3. Chuck Schumer (D)
North Carolina
2. Thom Tillis (R)
3. Ted Budd (R)
North Dakota
1. Kevin Cramer (R)
3. John Hoeven (R)
1. Jim Jordan (R)
3. J.D. Vance (R)
2. Markwayne Mullin (R)
3. James Lankford (R)
2. Jeff Merkley (D)
3. Ron Wyden (D)
1. Bob Casey Jr. (D)
3. John Fetterman (D)
Rhode Island
1. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
2. Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina
2. Lindsey Graham (R)
3. Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota
2. Mike Rounds (R)
3. John Thune (R)
1. Marsha Blackburn (R)
2. Bill Hagerty (R)
1. Dan Crenshaw (R)
2. John Cornyn (R)

1. Mitt Romney (R)
3. Mike Lee (R)
1. David Zuckerman (VPP)
3. Peter Welch (D)
1. Jill Vogel (R)
2. Mark Warner (D)
1. Suzan DelBene (D)
3. Patty Murray (D)
West Virginia
1. Patrick Morrisey (R)
2. Shelley Moore Capito (R)
1. Mike Gallagher (R)
3. Ron Johnson (R)
1. John Barrasso (R)
2. Cynthia Lummis (R)


1 Member of the Vermont Progressive Party (Senator David Zuckerman) who is caucusing with the Democratic Senate Caucus

And their ages in 2026:
Alabama: Tommy Tuberville, 72
Alaska: Dan Sullivan, 61
Arkansas: Tom Cotton, 49 - seeking reelection
Colorado: John Hickenlooper, 74
Delaware: Chris Coons, 63 - seeking reelection
Georgia: Jon Ossoff, 39 - seeking reelection
Idaho: Jim Risch, 83
Illinois: Dick Durbin, 81
Iowa: Joni Ernst, 56 - seeking reelection
Kansas: Roger Marshall, 66 - seeking reelection
Kentucky: Daniel Cameron, 40 - seeking reelection to first full term
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy, 69
Maine: Susan Collins, 73
Massachusetts: Ed Markey, 80
Michigan: Gary Peters, 68 - seeking reelection
Minnesota: Tina Smith, 68
Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith, 67
Montana: Steve Daines, 64 - seeking reelection
Nebraska: Ben Sasse, 54 - not seeking reelection, nominee for Secretary of Education
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen, 79 - seeking reelection
New Jersey: Cory Booker, 57 - seeking reelection
New Mexico: Ben Ray Luján, 54
North Carolina: Thom Tillis, 66
Oklahoma: Markwayne Mullin, 49 - seeking reelection to a first full term
Oregon: Jeff Merkley, 70
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, 77
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham, 71
South Dakota: Mike Rounds, 72
Tennessee: Bill Hagerty, 67
Texas: John Cornyn, 74
Virginia: Mark Warner, 72
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito, 72
Wyoming: Cynthia Lummis, 72
Jr. Member
Posts: 291
United States

Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2022, 05:14:21 PM »

January 20/21 2025
Jr. Member
Posts: 291
United States

Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2022, 01:02:58 PM »

The ages I have given give indications as to whether or not a candidate would be motivated to run for reelection or not. I also have some ideas for each state.

Alabama: Tuberville is moving towards a second term. No potential GOP primary challengers or credible Democrats in the general. Safe GOP

Alaska: Sullivan is not nearly as bad as Murkowski or Palin depending on your purview within the GOP. Safe GOP

Arkansas: Cotton isn't going anywhere. Safe GOP

Colorado: Some are hoping for a Cory Gardner comeback, but not very likely to happen. There's going to be pressure on Eli Bremer to run, but he just got elected to his seat and his chances aren't likely either. Ken Buck would be the consensus conservative candidate, and Lauren Boebert would get killed in the Front Range - even in a GOP primary. Favor DEM

Delaware: Coons is considered safe for his seat. Safe DEM

Georgia: Georgia's "boy wonder" Senator Ossoff is in the toughest position of them all. Geoff Duncan has already formed an exploratory committee, and Barry Loudermilk, Buddy Carter and Marjorie Taylor Greene are rumored to be in the mix. TOSSUP

Idaho: Risch has given zero indication that he will seek reelection, but he has not formally declared his intentions. Safe GOP

Illinois: Durbin is the subject of retirement speculation, but hasn't declared his decision either. Favor DEM if he runs, Leans DEM if he doesn't.

Iowa: Ernst is running for reelection. Democrats are a big underdog here. Safe GOP

Kansas: Marshall is running for reelection. Former Rep. Sharice Davids is rumored to consider a run. Safe GOP

Kentucky: Cameron is seeking reelection and is strongly favored - for now. Safe GOP

Louisiana: Cassidy is facing a primary challenge from Clay Higgins and he won't be the only one. He is 50-50 on whether or not to seek reelection. Safe GOP

Maine: Collins has not decided whether or not to seek reelection. TOSSUP

Massachusetts: Markey is 50/50, and whichever Republican does get the nomination will be a huge underdog. Attempts to draft Charlie Baker to run have been unsuccessful. Safe DEM

Michigan: Peters has filed for reelection and is preparing to launch his campaign at Pine Knob. (You audiophiles in Metro Detroit know what I mean by that...) Leans DEM

Minnesota: Smith is undecided. Tom Emmer is rumored to consider a run either for the Senate or for Governor. Favor DEM

Mississippi: Hyde-Smith is undecided, but is strongly leaning towards reelection. Safe GOP

Montana: Daines is running for a third term. He's strongly favored as the Democratic bench has become relatively - dare I say - underwhelming. Safe GOP

Nebraska: Sasse is going to the Department of Education if he hasn't already. Gov. Jim Pillen has a pick in mind...likely the one associated with Harry Caray... Safe GOP

New Hampshire: Shaheen has declared for reelection IRL and in this TL. Will Chris Sununu avenge his brother's defeat 18 years ago? Favor DEM unless Gov. Sununu runs.

New Jersey: Booker has declared IRL and in this TL as well. He's heavily favored for a third full term, having inherited the last year of Frank Lautenberg who is now a bag of bones. Safe DEM

New Mexico: Luján has not formally declared, but his post-recovery following his stroke is looking to be inspirational. Favor DEM

North Carolina: Tillis hasn't filed yet, but his state is up for grabs. Leans GOP

Oklahoma: Mullin is running for his first full term. Do Democrats even have a prayer in Oklahoma? Safe GOP

Oregon: Merkley has not declared his intentions for a fourth term. Favor DEM

Rhode Island: Reed has not decided if he will run again. Safe DEM

South Carolina: Graham is undecided on a fourth term, and after DeSantis's Cabinet is complete, more will be known of whether or not this is the end for him as Democrats float a trial balloon, even if mainly for Tim Scott's soon-to-be vacant seat and the Governor's Mansion, in a state whose electorate is one-quarter Black and almost uniformly dispersed across the state save for the Upstate. Favor GOP

South Dakota: Rounds hasn't declared, but he appears 'fit as a fiddle'. All things said, there's always that far-right primary challenge to worry about... Safe GOP

Tennessee: Hagerty is angling towards a second term, but hasn't declared yet. Democrats are still well behind the 8-ball here. Safe GOP

Texas: As conservative as Texas Republicans are, even with the threat of primary challengers, it's hard to imagine the party doing anything other than bypassing Senate Majority Leader Cornyn, even with the censure of 2022. Democrats do have options in mind, but Beto O'Rourke is not one of them, and their potential top prospect, former Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, is looking at a certain set of "Hot Wheels" in Austin. Favor GOP

Virginia: Warner is favored to win if he runs for reelection, and the top Republican prospect's chances could all come down to what happens in November. Favor DEM

West Virginia: Capito has the edge, and the Democrats are scrambling to find a good candidate to run against her. Safe GOP

Wyoming: Lummis is in the safest position possible to run for a second term, even if she hasn't declared yet. The Democrats are struggling to find a warm body to run against her. Safe GOP
Jr. Member
Posts: 291
United States

Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2022, 01:43:57 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2022, 04:04:43 PM by SaintStan86 »

Also shall note three things:
  • There is intense pressure from conservative groups and the grassroots to confirm Ted Cruz, and Senators who vote against him could face a potential primary challenge. Notice that the debate over Cruz goes beyond the 2020 election and to other factors, such as his style of leadership and views on abortion.
  • Clarence Thomas tops the speculation of Supreme Court futures, with some conservatives even floating the possibility of expanding the courts to reflect population growth in the West, primarily to cut down the influence of the Ninth Circuit that some argue has grown "too big for its britches".
  • With regards to the Senate Judiciary Committee, there are 14 Republicans and eight Democrats. The 14 GOP Senators are Chairman Thom Tillis, Chuck Grassley, Lindsey Graham, Mike Lee, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, John Kennedy, Marsha Blackburn, Adam Laxalt, Daniel Cameron, Jim Jordan, Jill Vogel, Mike Braun and Eric Schmitt who just replaced now-Sec. of Education Ben Sasse on the committee. The Democrats are Ranking Member Chris Coons, Dick Durbin, Sheldon Whitehouse, Richard Blumenthal, Cory Booker, Alex Padilla, Jon Ossoff and Michael Bennet.

Assuming there are 10 Senators opposing Cruz - and there are 65 Senators - it's fair to say that on the Senate Judiciary Committee, Grassley, Lee, Hawley, Cotton, Kennedy, Blackburn, Laxalt, Cameron, Jordan, Braun and Schmitt are FOR votes. Tillis, Graham and Vogel have not announced their intentions, but it appears that Tillis is the most on the fence about Cruz as well as Graham. Vogel has not announced her intentions, but she is between the two undecideds and the 11 who appear to be favoring voting Cruz out of the Senate Judiciary Committee. All things said, a yes vote from Vogel should seal the deal for Cruz and recommend him to the full Senate.

And as far as 10 Republicans, who besides Collins and Romney would be against him? Possibly Cassidy, especially since he's really on the hot seat?
Jr. Member
Posts: 291
United States

Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2022, 03:56:57 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2022, 04:03:01 PM by SaintStan86 »

One more thing on the Cruz deal. Expect DeSantis to stress the importance of confirming his Cabinet by alluding to the Dems, example being "Voters respect Democrats for sticking to their principles - however faulty and bad they are - and for treating their constituents and supporters like "one big happy family". Republicans need to do the same. Ted Cruz is a solid conservative in the tradition of the great Attorney General under Ronald Reagan, Edwin Meese, and to cancel him because of some unfortunate votes he has taken in the past, or because some people especially in Hollywood and the media feel like he hurt them even though they never met the guy, would be a Greek tragedy of the highest order. Let's not turn our backs to the conservative principles that got us to where we are, because we all know for sure Barack Obama held his coalition together in passing budget-busting stimuluses, a destructive healthcare "reform" plan that has actually harmed Americans, and pushing through government and military transformations that served to the benefit of no one in the end. I know if Ronald Reagan were alive today, he would have spoken fondly of Cruz."

In other words, DeSantis is going to stress the importance of standing by his selections and conservative principles wholesale, while at the same time making bipartisan votes (such as on climate change) in the right areas where the free market plays a big role and/or a certain policy stance is distinctly more popular among millennial and boomer Republicans and conservatives than as a whole - important considering the American Conservation Council which is a free-market environmental advocacy group and for which Eric Eikenberg (the incoming EPA Administrator in this TL) has served as an advisor IRL. If you're a Republican and you don't have anything nice to say about Benji Backer, you are part of the problem and Steve Hilton seconds my motion.

And I'm not talking about climate change only. Expect Republicans to be more emphatic of LGBT relationships, and it's important to note that there are many LGBT Disney employees who support DeSantis's "Don't Say Gay" bill. If you have been watching Fox News whenever they talk about Disney as a segment, you may have seen one or two of them speak out on their primetime block.
Jr. Member
Posts: 291
United States

Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2022, 04:06:13 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2022, 04:09:28 PM by SaintStan86 »

One more thing: If Lindsey Graham were to not vote Cruz OOC, expect him to be fried crispy. Pretty sure Jeff Duncan is waiting to see what he does...

Also, some confirmation votes would be nice. Especially given that Kirsten Gillibrand became popular just for the thankless job of opposing most if not all of Trump's appointees, which made her a household name in liberal circles and led to her 2020, outspokenly feminist, presidential bid.

Will be interesting to see as well how Casey votes on McCormick for Treasury, and also Fetterman, too.
Jr. Member
Posts: 291
United States

Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2022, 08:52:22 PM »
« Edited: September 11, 2022, 08:55:23 PM by SaintStan86 »

Looks fairly decent, and it will be interesting to see how Ted Cruz feels about being the Robert Bork of the millennial generation, as well as the state of Texas Republicans in the post-Bush, post-Cruz era, and with a gubernatorial race like no other on the horizon...

Meanwhile, here are the gubernatorial possibilities for the midterms...

Alabama: 82-year-old Republican Kay Ivey is term-limited. With the exception of NBA on TNT studio analyst Charles Barkley, it's hard to find a credible Democrat to run for this seat, and even Barkley may be too Joe Rogan-esque even by the standards of Alabama Democrats.

Alaska: Republican Mike Dunleavy (NOT the former NBA coach) is term-limited. While generally a Republican state, the state has a big independent streak and ranked-choice voting to boot.

Arizona: Democrat Katie Hobbs is eligible for a second term, having defeated Kari Lake in 2022. Lake is looking at another run with Donald Trump ready to pounce at any moment to endorse her, but another Republican other than incumbent Secretary of State Mark Finchem could be looking at the seat as well. One thing is for sure: the McCain machine of yore is essentially in the wilderness.

Arkansas: Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders has already declared for a second term. Democrats are hoping to recruit Little Rock Mayor Frank Scott to run, but is Arkansas ready for a Black Governor? Especially outside of the Delta, Little Rock and NW Arkansas?

California: Democrat Gavin Newsom is term-limited, and the only race speculation about him is for President in 2028. This is not to say a presidential run isn't possible - Ronald Reagan ran for President six years after leaving Sacramento - but with California Republicans finding their groove in its traditional bastions, as well as among multigenerational Hispanic and Asian households, Democrats face a conundrum. Would Kamala Harris solve it? Or dwell away in the safe space of her Montecito mansion?

Colorado: Democrat Jared Polis is term-limited and his only real prospect for any elected office going forward is running for the Senate - and he's not going to challenge his like-minded predecessor John Hickenlooper anytime soon. For Polis, the future is mainly being an elder statesman both amongst Colorado Democrats and LGBTQ+ Democrats.

Connecticut: Democrat Ned Lamont is eligible for a third term. His two-time GOP nominee, Bob Stefanowski, is not running again, and Lamont himself is the source of speculation for 2028 as well.

Florida: Republican Jeanette Nuñez has taken her place in the Florida sun. The Democrats will be chomping at the bit to take her out, having moved on from Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried.

Georgia: Gov. Brian Kemp is term-limited and DONE with politics. It's open season in Georgia now. Democrats have moved on from Stacey Abrams and have pivoted their speculation to an arguably "more electable" name: Rep. Lucy McBath.

Hawaii: Gov. Josh Green will seek a second term. Do Republicans even have a prayer in paradise?

Idaho: Gov. Brad Little is eligible to seek a third term, but the far right is having none of him. Will he run? Or won't he? One thing is clear: Boise suburbanites and the Mormons in the east would like nothing to do with the anarchists in the Panhandle.

Illinois: Gov. J.B. Pritzker has the perfect political all-you-can-eat buffet: no term limits, continued popularity amongst Democrats and independents, and speculation around 2028. While Republicans are certainly seeking out a strong candidate to run in 2026 (or at least someone other than Darren Bailey or Bill Brady), the Senate remains the big focus with Dick Durbin the speculation of retirement rumors. Former Rep. Peter Roskam (who represented the same suburban Chicago district that Rep. Peter Breen has since won back for the GOP) has an exploratory committee, and State Sen. Jason Barickman of Bloomington and venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan are rumored to consider runs as well.

Iowa: Bypassed by the DeSantis administration - not that it mattered save for vice presidential speculation in 2024 - Gov. Kim Reynolds is eligible to run for a third full term and has the carte blanche to do so. The only question is: Will the Democrats nominate a stronger candidate this time around?

Kansas: Gov. Derek Schmidt is eligible to run for a second term, as Democrats try to convince former Gov. Laura Kelly to make a comeback.

Maine: Gov. Janet Mills is term-limited until 2030, and Republicans have moved on from Paul LePage. Ranked-choice voting also complicates things.

(Editor's note: I wonder if anyone is keeping score on election reforms in different states, such as RCV, legislature reforms, term limits, mail-in ballots, voter ID, closing the primaries, etc.) that could alter the way elections are done at the state level...

Maryland: Gov. Wes Moore is already being compared to Barack Obama and some are hoping he makes a run in 2028. But Moore's main focus is running for a certain second term.

Massachusetts: Gov. Maura Healey is seeking a second term. Will the Republicans pick a moderate Charlie Baker type or another Donald Trump clone? Will DeSantis even have a say?

Michigan: Gov. Tudor Dixon was the surprise winner of 2022. Can Gretchen Whitmer make a comeback? Or do Democrats consider her the "Beto O'Rourke/Stacey Abrams of the Midwest" and move on to someone else instead? Like State Sen. Mallory McMorrow?

Minnesota: Gov. Tim Walz can run for another term, and Rep. Tom Emmer has his pick of Senate against Tina Smith or his second gubernatorial run (after the first in 2010 against Mark Dayton).

Nebraska: Gov. Jim Pillen is popular and favored to win a second term in 2026. His predecessor, Pete Ricketts, is the target of Senate rumors. Pete Festersen, the Omaha City Council President who gave Deb Fischer a heart attack of a run in 2024, is more focused on potentially challenging Rep. Don Bacon in the 2nd District.

Nevada: Gov. Joe Lombardo vs. former Gov. Steve Sisolak? It appears inevitable...but the odds of the race being set in stone aren't even on the sportsbook yet...

New Hampshire: Forget a sixth term as Governor. For Gov. Chris Sununu, it's all about whether or not he will challenge Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

New Mexico: Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited and is not going to run for Senate. Both parties will be looking at legislators in Santa Fe for their next Governor, but most especially the Republicans.

New York: No matter how hated she is amongst Republicans, Gov. Kathy Hochul can run for a second full term and there's nothing the NYRSC can do about it. But it won't stop Republicans from going hardcore after her...if the Conservatives and Independence types align behind them, that is...

Ohio: 79-year-old Republican Mike DeWine is term-limited in 2026, and while Lt. Gov. Jon Husted effectively is his choice as successor, conservatives may be looking elsewhere. Democrats do have their options, but it all comes down to both suburban votes in Columbus and Cincinnati and blue-collar voters in northeast Ohio, Toledo and especially along the Ohio River.

Oklahoma: Kevin Stitt cannot run for reelection anymore. The GOP has plenty of options, but Democrats are hoping that a blue-collar revamp and suburban teachers will work to their advantage.

Oregon: After losing the Governor's Mansion to Christine Drazan in 2022, Democrats will be hard-pressed to reinvigorate themselves statewide. Will they? Or will they continue to let Portland bully the rest of the state's Democratic establishment?

Pennsylvania: No one expected Doug Mastriano to be Governor given all the polls that favored Josh Shapiro. Can Democrats make a comeback in 2026 by taking cues from Bob Casey Jr.'s 2024 Senate triumph? Or get offset by high expectations leading to a blue-collar surprise?

Rhode Island: Dan McKee will be 75 in 2026. Can the Democrat win a second full term? Or will a younger, more progressive challenger upstage him? Better yet, will he even run? And who will the GOP recruit?

South Carolina: Republican Gov. Henry McMaster cannot run for reelection because of term limits. The GOP has to also contend with Sen. Lindsey Graham possibly retiring on one end and newly appointed Sen. Catherine Templeton looking to prove her conservative bonafides on the other, as Democrats aim to capture the former seat while former Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin mulls a run for Governor, hoping to become the first Democrat since Jim Hodges to win that post in a state with a one-quarter, nearly evenly dispersed, Black electorate.

South Dakota: Gov. Kristi Noem is term-limited and bound for Secretary of the Interior under President DeSantis. Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden waits in the wings to become the new Governor.

Tennessee: Gov. Bill Lee is term-limited, and Republicans have their pick of top candidates to succeed him. The Democrats will have to rely on someone from Nashville or Memphis to try to reclaim the Governor's Mansion in a state whose dramatic shift towards being heavily Republican is owed to the Democrats' diminished strength in rural west and middle Tennessee. (East Tennessee, by virtue of its historical pro-Union pedigree that extends into southern Kentucky, is near-uniformly Republican.)

Texas: There are no term limits in the Lone Star State, but conservatives are making it a big priority to push them, and this issue in fact is considered a "top priority" of Texas Republicans with many grassroots leaders threatening a revolt if term limits and closed primaries are not passed. The Texas Legislature has also banned Democrats from serving as committee chairs, having achieved this goal during RNC Chairman Matt Rinaldi's tenure as state GOP Chairman. Regardless of what happens to term limits statewide, Gov. Greg Abbott is on the fence about running for a fourth term with his only adopted daughter now a college graduate and on the verge of getting married, while former Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is on the verge of launching an exploratory committee to run for Governor.

Vermont: Gov. Phil Scott is one of two remaining Republicans in New England, and he appears to be leaning towards a sixth term. Who will the Democrats run?

Wisconsin: Much like his "blue wall" counterparts Tudor Dixon and Doug Mastriano, Tim Michels was also all but written off, but still beat Democratic Gov. Tony Evers who is mulling a rematch.

Wyoming: Republican Mark Gordon is term-limited, and the Republicans pretty much have their fill of successors. The one thing that Democrats are hoping for? Either a Republican splinter vote from former Rep. Liz Cheney or a 2022 Utah U.S. Senate race-esque situation where Democrats run no one and endorse Cheney instead.

And that's not even counting these two states:

New Jersey: Gov. Phil Murphy is term-limited and going nowhere. His 2021 GOP challenger, Jack Ciattarelli, is back for a return run, but will he succeed this time in a state whose GOP has been reinvigorated since his surprisingly close result?

Virginia: Republicans have their successor to Secretary of Commerce Glenn Youngkin installed. And her name is Gov. Winsome Sears. Who will the Democrats nominate to challenge her in a state that, before 2021, was seemingly lost for the GOP? (For those keeping score at home, Attorney General Jason Miyares tops the Senate speculation for 2026 regardless of what happens to him in 2025...)
Jr. Member
Posts: 291
United States

Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2022, 03:28:51 AM »
« Edited: September 12, 2022, 03:44:41 AM by SaintStan86 »

Meanwhile, here are the initial Hill Committee targets. If a district is not listed here, it's because that district is where DeSantis or Harris did well enough to where neither the DCCC nor NRCC are prioritizing it.


AK-AL: Sarah Palin
AZ-02: Eli Crane (Northern Arizona) - might run for Governor
AZ-04: Kelly Cooper (South Phoenix suburbs)
AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (Tucson suburbs, SE Arizona)
AR-02: French Hill (Little Rock and suburbs) - leaning towards retirement
CA-09: Tom Patti (Stockton)
CA-22: David Valadao (Hanford, south Fresno and west Bakersfield) - potential retirement?
CA-26: Matt Jacobs (Ventura County including Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley)
CA-27: Mike Garcia (North Los Angeles County) - potential gubernatorial candidate
CA-45: Michelle Steel (Huntington Beach, Garden Grove) - potential statewide office
CA-47: Scott Baugh (Irvine, Newport Beach)
CA-49: Brian Maryott (San Clemente, Escondido, Camp Pendleton)
CO-03: Lauren Boebert (Grand Junction, Pueblo) - potential primary challenge
CO-07: Erik Aadland (Western Denver suburbs including Jefferson County)
CO-08: Barb Kirkmeyer (Northern Denver suburbs from Thornton up to Greeley)
CT-02: Mike France (Norwich, New London, Storrs) - potential gubernatorial run
CT-05: George Logan (Most of Litchfield County, plus Waterbury and Danbury)
FL-02: Neal Dunn (Tallahassee and Panama City) - potential retirement
FL-04: Aaron Bean (West and downtown Jacksonville)
FL-13: Anna Paulina Luna (Pinellas County save for St. Petersburg)
FL-15: Laurel Lee (northern Tampa suburbs)
FL-21: VACANT, was Brian Mast (northern Palm Beach County, plus the Treasure Coast)
FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar (Miami and Coral Gables)
FL-28: VACANT, was Carlos Giménez (south Miami-Dade County and the Florida Keys)
IL-05: Nimish Jani (northwest Chicago and suburbs from Rosemont and Arlington Heights to Schaumburg) - Definitely a top target given the circumstances of 2024 when the former Democratic incumbent (Raja Krishnamoorthi who has been indicted and is now facing trial) was raided by the FBI
IL-06: Peter Breen (Western Chicago suburbs; entirely within DuPage County)
IL-07: Keith Pekau (SW Cook County as well as most of Downers Grove in Chicago suburbs)
IL-08: Catalina Lauf (Outer northwest Chicago suburbs from Palatine to McHenry and northern Kane counties)
IL-11: George Pearson (Chicago's southern suburbs including most of Will County)
IL-12: Mike Bost (Metro East suburbs of St. Louis)
IL-17: Esther Joy King (Quincy, Moline and much of western Illinois)
IN-01: Jennifer-Ruth Green (Northwest Indiana)
IA-02: Ashley Hinson (NE Iowa including Cedar Rapids, Dubuque and Mason City)
IA-03: Zach Nunn (Des Moines and southern Iowa including Ottumwa)
KS-02: Jake LaTurner (Topeka, Pittsburg and much of eastern Kansas)
KS-03: Amanda Adkins (Kansas City area)
KY-06: Andy Barr (Lexington area)
MD-06: Neil Parrott (Western Maryland, northwest DMV suburbs)
MA-09: Jesse Brown (South Shore suburbs of Boston, Cape Cod and New Bedford)
MI-04: Bill Huizenga (Kalamazoo and SW Michigan) - potential retirement target
MI-07: Tom Barrett (Lansing to northwestern Detroit exurbs including Livingston County)
MI-08: Paul Junge (Flint and Mid-Michigan region)
MI-10: Mike MacDonald (Southern and central Macomb County, plus Rochester Hills in Oakland County)
MN-01: Brad Finstad (Southern Minnesota)
MN-02: Tyler Kistner (south Twin Cities suburbs) - potential Senate candidate
MN-08: Pete Stauber (northern Minnesota including Duluth) - potential Senate candidate
MO-02: Dean Plocher (western St. Louis suburbs)
MT-01: Ryan Zinke (western Montana including Missoula and Bozeman)
NE-01: Mike Flood (Lincoln and much of eastern Nebraska sans Omaha) - potential Senate candidate
NE-02: Don Bacon (Omaha and most suburbs)
NV-01: Mark Robertson (Las Vegas and southern Clark County including Henderson)
NV-02: Mark Amodei (Reno and northern Nevada)
NV-03: April Becker (Western Las Vegas suburbs including Summerlin)
NH-01: Matt Mowers (Manchester and Seacoast and Lakes regions) - potential gubernatorial or Senate candidate
NH-02: Bob Burns (Nashua, Keene and North Country region)
NJ-03: Bob Healey (Burlington County and inland parts of the Shore)
NJ-05: Christopher DePhillips (Northern Bergen and Passaic counties, other suburbs NW of New York City)
NJ-11: Tayfun Selen (Morris and western Essex County west of Newark)
NM-02: Yvette Herrell (southern New Mexico)
NM-03: Alexis Martinez Johnson (northern and eastern New Mexico)
NY-01: Nick LaLota (central and eastern Suffolk County including the Hamptons)
NY-02: Andrew Garbarino (South Shore areas on Long Island across Nassau and Suffolk counties)
NY-03: George Santos (North Shore areas on Long Island, as well as a northeast sliver of Queens)
NY-04: Anthony D'Esposito (SW Nassau County) - in the top of the pile for the Democrats
NY-17: Mike Lawler (Hudson Valley suburbs north of New York City including northern Westchester, Putnam and Rockland)
NY-18: Colin Schmitt (mid-Hudson Valley exurbs north of NYC including most of Orange, Dutchess and Ulster counties)
NY-19: Marc Molinaro (southern Capital District area + Binghamton)
NY-22: Brandon Williams (Syracuse and Utica) - likely trial balloon for midsized and rural America
NC-06: Jon Hardister (Greensboro)
NC-08: Mark Walker (High Point, Fayetteville and rural and exurban areas in between)
NC-13: Bo Hines (southern Research Triangle suburbs)
OH-03: Mike Turner (Dayton and immediate suburbs, plus Middletown) - potential retirement or gubernatorial run
OH-05: Bob Latta (Toledo and surrounding northwest Ohio) - potential retirement
OH-10: Max Miller (Lorain and western Cleveland suburbs)
OH-15: Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (Akron and Canton)
OR-05: Lori Chavez-DeRemer (southeast Portland suburbs including most of Clackamas County, as well as Salem and Bend)
OR-06: Mike Erickson (southwest Portland suburbs and exurbs)
PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (Bucks and eastern sliver of Montgomery counties) - may retire or face primary challenge
PA-04: Todd Stephens (most of Montgomery and Berks counties)
PA-06: Guy Ciarrocchi (Chester County and Reading)
PA-07: Lisa Scheller (Lehigh Valley)
PA-10: Scott Perry (Harrisburg and York)
PA-17: Jeremy Shaffer (west and NW Pittsburgh suburbs)
RI-02: Allan Fung (southern Providence suburbs from Cranston southward)
TX-07: Pierce Bush (west and southwest Houston)
TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (Weslaco to eastern San Antonio suburbs)
TX-23: Tony Gonzales (western San Antonio suburbs, Del Rio, Big Bend region)
TX-27: Mayra Flores (west Corpus Christi, Victoria and McAllen)
TX-28: Cassy Garcia (Laredo and south San Antonio suburbs)
TX-34: Morgan Cisneros Graham (east Corpus Christi, Brownsville and Rockport)
VA-02: Jen Kiggans (Virginia Beach and south Hampton Roads region)
VA-05: Bob Good (Charlottesville, Lynchburg and Danville)
VA-07: Yesli Vega (exurban Northern Virginia)
WA-03: Joe Kent (southwest Washington including Vancouver)
WA-08: Matt Larkin (eastern Seattle suburbs, plus Wenatchee)
WI-01: Bryan Steil (southeast Wisconsin including Kenosha, Janesville and Racine)
WI-03: Derrick Van Orden (western Wisconsin including La Crosse and Eau Claire)


AL-02: Kirk Hatcher (Montgomery, northern Mobile)
CA-06: Ami Bera (North Sacramento, Arden-Arcade area)
CA-25: Manuel Pérez (Coachella, El Centro)
CA-46: Lou Correa (Anaheim, Santa Ana)
CO-06: Jason Crow (Aurora, southwest Arapahoe County)
CT-04: Jim Himes (Fairfield County including Bridgeport)
DE-AL: Bryan Townsend
FL-09: Darren Soto (South Orlando, east Orange County and all of Osceola County)
FL-22: David Silvers (most of Palm Beach County)
FL-23: Jared Moskowitz (Boca Raton and northern Broward County) - might run for Governor
FL-25: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fort Lauderdale area) - potential retirement
GA-02: James Beverly (Albany, Columbus, Macon and SW Georgia)
GA-07: Lucy McBath (most of Gwinnett County) - potential candidate for Governor
IL-10: Brad Schneider (Chicago's North Shore suburbs from Waukegan down to Wilmette)
IA-01: Mike Matson (Southeast Iowa including Davenport, Iowa City and SE corner of Des Moines metro area)
KY-03: Morgan McGarvey (Louisville)
ME-01: Ethan Strimling (Portland and southern Maine)
MD-02: Johnny Olszewski (Northern Baltimore suburbs)
MD-03: Sarah Elfreth (Southern and western Baltimore suburbs)
MA-02: Joseph Early Jr. (Worcester area)
MI-03: Hillary Scholten (Grand Rapids)
MI-11: Haley Stevens (Southern and central Oakland County) - potential gubernatorial candidate
MN-03: Melisa Franzen (Western Twin Cities suburbs)
MS-02: Chuck Espy (Jackson and Delta region)
NV-04: Mo Denis (North Las Vegas and northern Clark County, plus central Nevada)
NJ-06: Frank Pallone (Jersey Shore region as well as much of Middlesex County) - likely retirement
NM-01: Melanie Stansbury (Albuquerque area)
NY-20: Phil Steck (Capitol District including Albany)
NY-25: Joe Morelle (Rochester)
NY-26: Brian Higgins (Buffalo and Niagara Falls) - potential retirement target
NC-01: Don Davis (northeastern North Carolina)
OH-01: John Cranley (Cincinnati)
OR-04: Chris Edwards (much of western Oregon outside Portland area including Eugene, Coos Bay and Corvallis)
PA-08: Matt Cartwright (most of NE Pennsylvania including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre)
PA-12: Summer Lee (Pittsburgh and eastern suburbs)
TX-32: Colin Allred (north Dallas and immediate suburbs) - potential candidate for Texas Attorney General
VA-04: Donald McEachin (Richmond and southside Virginia)
VA-10: Jennifer Wexton (western Northern Virginia suburbs of DMV including Loudoun County)
WA-02: Seth Fleetwood (northern Puget Sound region including Everett and Bellingham)
WA-06: Derek Kilmer (Western Washington outside of metro Seattle and Vancouver)

The list includes a number of suburban and working-class areas where DeSantis won by less than 10 percent, as well as potential retirement targets across the country that are expected to be at least somewhat competitive in an open seat race. Not much is expected though outside of the basic count of pickups in the House, due to the very fluid nature of congressional races; even though it is very unlikely that there will be Senators or DeSantis administration members who served in Congress beginning AFTER 2024, as it is virtually impossible to predict the complete outcome for every congressional seat and their potential incumbents beyond 2024. Remember that virtually no one heard of Dan Crenshaw other than being a recent college grad with a young wife who just sneaked into a GOP runoff in March 2018. Guess where he is now...
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« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2022, 12:52:36 PM »

Nice work except I shall mention that Ratcliffe refused to take his seat in the House upon being nominated to lead the CIA. I will also go on a limb and say that former Rep. Lance Gooden will be running for his old congressional seat that Ratcliffe had just won. In other words, it will be like nothing ever happened.

Also, another important milestone to note is that President DeSantis has called his agenda "100 Days of Freedom" which concludes April 30, 2025.

As for the special elections, I shall mention that most anyone who ran against Byron Donalds in FL-19 would be a prime candidate for that seat, provided that they still live there. I know for one former State House Majority Leader Dane Eagle, who finished just behind Donalds and went on to work in the DeSantis administration I'm told, is from Cape Coral which is in FL-19. Other cities include Fort Myers, Naples, Estero, Bonita Springs, Marco Island and Sanibel. That district should be a slam dunk for the GOP.

FL-21 seems a little bit more complicated, the Democratic establishment having been a bit more established in years past before the collapse of the very infamous Tim Mahoney, who himself beat the even more infamous Mark Foley and which couldn't even salvage Allen West's career. All of St. Lucie and Martin counties are in here along with Palm Beach Gardens, Jupiter and some rather swampy (as in geographically swampy, NOT politically) northern sections of Palm Beach County. Not in FL-21? Mar-a-Lago. That's in FL-22...Sad!

FL-28 is perhaps the most complicated for sure. Monroe County is the only consistent portion - as it includes all of the Florida Keys and the very bottom of the Everglades. The Miami-Dade portion stretches from Florida International University and Miami's western suburbs west of Florida's Turnpike - Sweetwater, Miccosukee and Tamiami come to mind, down to Homestead, Cutler Ridge and Florida City, as well as an Air Reserve Base. The southern portion is certainly more Democratic than the rest of the district, though the Keys have an independent streak all to themselves.

As for the other special elections, there is going to be intense pressure on Pete Ricketts to enter the Nebraska Senate race to replace Ben Sasse, Lance Gooden (as aforementioned) is the overwhelming favorite to return to Congress in TX-05, and UT-02 will pit Salt Lake City and its northern suburbs against St. George - an arguably more (especially socially) conservative part of the state that is closer to Las Vegas than the Mormon Temple.

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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2022, 09:38:38 PM »

While I largely am serving as a "consultant" on this TL given my earnest, successful attempt at a complete TL was achieved through the OG Blank Canvas, I am also going to provide some direction as well to speed this thing along as well. The special election prospects are just one example...

Potential Candidates for Special Elections:

FL-19 (primary 3/18, general 4/22): This has been a rather transient seat the last several cycles, especially since Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV - also known as Connie Mack IV - left it to run for the Senate against now-NASA Administrator Bill Nelson in 2012. Former State House Majority Leader Dane Eagle (who narrowly finished second behind Donalds in 2020) is now Gov. Jeanette Nuñez's Lieutenant Governor and unlikely to pursue the seat after such a sudden appointment to a higher-profile post. Wealthy businessman Casey Askar, who finished a very close third with 20 percent behind Donalds (22.6) and Eagle (21.9) in 2020, has already declared along with urologist William Figlesthaler who got 18.3 percent in that same 2020 primary - one that proved to be so nasty that Askar has even sued his past opponents following the primary, particularly due to Figlesthaler's comments (including even a false rumor that Donalds had dropped out).

Former Rep. Curt Clawson, a one-time potential Senate contender in 2016 - when Sen. Marco Rubio was running for President and then-Rep. Ron DeSantis was himself running for Rubio's Senate seat - who ultimately decided not to seek reelection after just one and a quarter terms to support his widowed father (who has since passed away), has already declared for the seat as well and stressed the importance of "electing a common sense, big-tent conservative in the tradition of President Ron DeSantis to serve the people of Southwest Florida". Clawson is well-off and leisurely but not one to throw money away - like many in this district - and is also a former Purdue basketball player under the legendary Gene Keady.

Outside of past contenders for this Republican slice of paradise in southwest Florida, current electeds here include State Sen. Ray Rodrigues, State Reps. Mike Giallombardo and Jenna Persons, and former Sanibel Councilman and South Florida Water Management District Chairman Chauncey Goss, whose father Porter Goss once represented this same area in Congress from 1989 until his 2004 appointment to head the CIA under George W. Bush. Even Connie Mack IV - whose father Connie Mack III held the same seat from 1983 until his 1988 election to the U.S. Senate, and who himself succeeded the elder Goss in 2005 - has a potential congressional heir in the pipeline in Connie Mack V.

The prospect of a nepotistic successor in the district (most certainly regarding Mack, but also Goss as well) has led to the recent launch of a super PAC, aptly titled "F**k Nepotism PAC", with a mailing address linked to a large post office box in Fort Myers and a Change.org petition calling for the FEC to allow a PAC with such an obscene title to be registered (accompanied with an ad campaign both on YouTube and on TV in the district narrated with distorted voices and deepfakes, with such claims as (in distorted voice) "If you believe this seat belongs to the people and not a bunch of spoiled brats, then sign is. If you don't believe so, then stop calling yourself a 'conservative Republican'"). No clues exist as to who the source of this PAC is

As for the Democratic chances of a pickup here? Not very likely. The district has long been amongst the safest Republican locales from Ronald Reagan through the Bushes to Donald Trump and favorite son DeSantis, and the prospect of a Democrat winning this seat would make anyone who bets on that prospect - dare I say - filthy rich.

FL-21 (primary 3/18, general 4/22): Democrats looking for a YUGE upset will find better luck here in this Treasure Coast district that covers St. Lucie and Martin counties, as well as northern Palm Beach County. DeSantis won a majority here in 2024, and Donald Trump, Mitt Romney and George W. Bush all won majorities here in the low 50s. It has only voted once for a Democrat - Barack Obama in 2008 - when Florida was in a death spiral and its GOP standard bearer was a silver-haired slickster named Charlie Crist. Two former state legislators - former State Rep. MaryLynn Magar and former State Senate President Joe Negron, the latter of whom lost a 2006 bid to replace disgraced former Rep. Mark Foley to Democrat Tim Mahoney (who himself faced his own personal scandal of extramarital affairs and paid-off mistresses that cost him his reelection in 2008) - have declared their intentions to run to succeed Mast.

Tom Rooney, the Republican who beat Mahoney in 2008 and served five terms in the House, has not indicated whether or not he will run again. Neither has former Rep. Allen West, who is still registered to vote in Texas where he recently served as state GOP Chairman, but once sought this seat in 2012 after redistricting complicated his reelection efforts further south in a Boca Raton-based district that year, or former Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, who defeated West in 2012 and held the seat for two terms before making an ill-fated run for the Senate against Marco Rubio in 2016. While this is a relatively competitive district on paper that likely gave DeSantis 55+ percent of the vote, a Democratic upset is definitely not out of the woods here - at least compared to FL-19.

FL-28 (primary 3/18, general 4/22): This is the one Democratic prospect for a pickup out of the five House specials. There is no shortage of high-profile Republicans in Miami-Dade west of Florida's Turnpike and in the Keys who would like to chomp at the bit for this seat. All thing said, State Sen. Ana Maria Rodriguez appears to have cleared the deck for the GOP, but former Rep. and 2024 nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, former State Rep. Robert Asencio (who himself ran against Giménez in 2022) and Miami-Dade County Commissioner Kionne McGhee will duke it out for the Democrats.

TX-05 (primary 4/12): Gov. Greg Abbott - who is primarily focused on tying loose ends in the Texas Legislature and securing conservative goals, while also being clearly on the fence about his future with term limits set to finally be passed by the Lege (whose committees are now 100% controlled by Republicans) in Austin - has scheduled a special election for this April to fill the congressional seat John Ratcliffe chose to not take office in due to his appointment as Director of the CIA. The consensus Republican in this district is former Rep. Lance Gooden, who has filed to run for his old congressional seat, and whose old staff being entirely rehired by Ratcliffe following weeks of no personnel moves (before his tapping by DeSantis to lead the CIA) raised plenty of speculation as to the future of the heavily Republican east DFW Metroplex district that Gooden represented for three terms, before embarking on a bid for the U.S. Senate (where he lost the GOP runoff to now-Sen. Dan Crenshaw). As DeSantis won 70 percent of the vote here in 2024 and Gooden has effectively cleared the GOP deck, this is really a coronation now to give Gooden his old job back.

Also, do keep in mind that in the original TL, Texas (along with Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois and Alabama) had their districts redrawn due to court orders, rulings and other circumstances that occurred following the 2022 election. While there were wholesale changes including the creation of a majority Hispanic district exclusive to western parts of Dallas and Dallas County, not much changed in the 5th. This is the redrawn map of Texas, plus a zoom-in of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, that highlights the new 5th that was drawn in this TL:

UT-02: State Sen. Daniel Thatcher, St. George Mayor Michele Randall and State Rep. Tim Jimenez have emerged as the consensus favorites to succeed Chris Stewart in this west suburban Salt Lake City/southern Utah district that gave Ron DeSantis upwards of 65 percent of the vote in 2024. Jimenez appears to be the odds-on favorite for this seat.

NE-SEN: Former Gov. Pete Ricketts tops the list for the GOP. If not him, Rep. Mike Flood or Adrian Smith, as well Angus beef and bull semen farmer Charles Herbster, would make a run of it. While Democrats do intend to nominate a candidate, 2024 U.S. Senate nominee and Omaha City Councilmember Pete Festersen is not one of them. Democrats have two candidates in mind: State Sen. Lynne Walz - whose district in the Unicameral (so named because Nebraska's legislature only has one chamber) includes her hometown of Fremont where Education Sec. Ben Sasse is originally from, and former State Sen. Tony Vargas, who unsuccessfully challenged Omaha-based Rep. Don Bacon in 2022.

SC-SEN: Sen. Catherine Templeton is running in the special election to fill the remainder of Tim Scott's seat. The Democrats are more focused on the Senate seat of Lindsey Graham who is the rumored target of retirement speculation, especially once the entire Cabinet of the DeSantis administration + DeSantis's "100 Days of Freedom" is up on May 1st. That is not to say there won't be a decent challenger for the Dems for the upcoming special election, but Democrats would much rather have a Democrat who can serve a full six years versus one likely to be roadkill in two (especially given what happened to Raphael Warnock next door in Georgia in 2022).

Speaking of "100 Days of Freedom", I'm surprised not much has been discussed about that in the interim. Pretty sure DeSantis is waiting until he gets his picks in and addresses Congress in the joint session to seal the deal. But there has to be progress being made in the interim policy wise, is there not?...

Lastly, what about U.S. Ambassadors to Russia and China? Those have to be very important posts with the situation at hand...
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2022, 10:08:46 PM »

FYI for those who may be wondering how Pierce Bush got elected over Lizzie Fletcher in TX-07, this is what the same redraw in this TL looks like in Houston:

In this redraw, Biden won 12.8 percent in 2020, but Gov. Greg Abbott won it twice in 2014 and 2018, and in this TL it likely gave Abbott a third term and voted for DeSantis with at least a plurality or somewhere in the 50-55 range. Expect Pierce Bush to be a relatively moderate to conservative Republican compared to his neighbors...
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2022, 10:02:46 AM »

Friday February 7th 2025
Lester Holt: Good Afternoon! I am Lester Holt of NBC NEWS and welcome to this Special Report. 5 Days after former Texas Senator Ted Cruz withdrew his Nomination for Attorney General President Ron DeSantis is set to make a groundbreaking Announcement late this Afternoon to officially announce that he has tapped United States Court of Appeals Judge BARBARA LAGOA as his Choice for Attorney General.

Savannah Guthrie: Judge Lagoa would only be the 2nd Woman to occupy this Office after the late Janet Reno in the Clinton Administration. We have Chuck Todd, Andrea Mitchell, Nicolle Wallace and Eugene Robinson here with us to weigh in. Chuck, set the stage for us!

Chuck Todd: Lester, Savannah this feels big. However if you look at our Board who is already confirmed in the DeSantis' Administration is does set a Trend: Byron Donalds, Tim Scott, Carlos Gimenez and of course his Vice President Nikki Haley not to mention that Jeanette Nuñez & Winsome Sears took Governorships in Florida & Virginia. Todays Late Afternoon Announcement is probably the most consequential one since the he announced Haley as his Running Mate last Summer.
You know before we came on air here I stumbled accross a Clip from FOX NEWS and what Brit Hume said last Night. Watch:

(Clip from Brit Hume at FOX NEWS talking how the Republican Party is diversifying)

You know Lester, Savannah, God Bless him. He saw this happening waaay before we did last year and the Election Results speak for themselves. The Point he is making is that DeSantis is taking the Republican Party on a very different path then even Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush making it more dynamic & inclusive, bringing in more Minorities, etc. And I tell you what Lester: This will keep continueing until Democrats find a good answer to it. We basically have a National Border Crisis that hasn't been resolved and Voters especially in Hispanic Communities are fed up with this.

Lester Holt: Nicolle, you seem to want to jump in here?

Nicolle Wallace: To Chucks & for the matter Brit Humes Point: This is how we, Republicans, always wanted our Party to be, more diverse & inclusive. We had buoyers remorse when John McCain got only 33 % of the Hispanic Vote and Mitt Romney had only 27 %. Of Course then Donald Trump came and threw us some curveballs into our path but now DeSantis seems to have charted for us the right path forward and Judge Lagoa fits into this perfectly. Democrats ignored the warning signs when DeSantis tapped Haley as his Running Mate which was the first sign what could be coming and kept doing their thing. Guess what: They got burned for it!

Eugene Robinson: The Democratic Party has to refind themselves first before they can start an effective Opposition. Maybe it is time to reach out to those folks who voted for Andrew Yang & Adam Kinzinger last year particularly their Economic Platform which was very appealing to Voters. The thing is with his 6.5 % he got his "Forward Party" is now eligible in all 50 States since he crossed the 5 % threshold but no effort has been made.

Lester Holt: Thank You all and we will see you in a few hours.
Actually, like sand through the hourglass, it wouldn't shock me if Kate Snow - not Lester Holt - breaks in for NBC considering what just replaced Days of our Lives. Snow is co-hosting its linear replacement in the 1:00PM hour, though it wouldn't shock me if NBC maintains Holt as "breaking news anchor" in much the same vein David Muir or (beforehand) George Stephanopoulos does for ABC.
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« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2022, 01:54:12 PM »

For Michigan with Gretchen Whitmer gone, expect State Sen. Mallory McMorrow to get the bulk of the speculation surrounding a potential bid against Tudor Dixon, especially after her extremely viral response to her GOP colleague Lana Theis using an email blast to call her a "groomer". Also shall note that The Detroit News is the more conservative of the two dailies in Metro Detroit (the Detroit Free Press is the more liberal of the two).

Also appears that Francis Suarez has cleared the deck in FL-28 for the GOP. Of course, you don't have to actually live in FL-28 to run since Miami is almost entirely in FL-27 (save for the majority Black and Haitian sections north of Jackson Memorial Hospital in deep blue, majority Black and LGBTQ+ FL-24 and the aforementioned sliver in FL-26 that includes MIA), but I don't think Carlos Giménez did either when he ran in what counted as FL-26 (which became FL-28). Regardless of what the Dems do, this is at worst a Leans GOP seat if not a Favor GOP one.

As for FL-09, could the Hispanic Puerto Rican vote work to the Democrats' advantage this time with Darren Soto? Based on what this TL is indicating, it's going to be a test of DeSantis's staying power with the Hispanic swing vote, especially outside of the Cuban and Venezuelan/South American votes that are more distinctly Republican than the other Hispanic subgroups. Also, what are the GOP chances in this district, and will Alan Grayson make (cough, cough) another primary run in his old district?
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2022, 05:29:01 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2022, 06:07:23 PM by SaintStan86 »

So far so good, but I would also be curious as to who U.S. Ambassador to Mexico would be? Pretty sure such an ambassadorship would be crucial in negotiations at the border. I would suggest former Rep. Henry Bonilla (who at one point was considered for Secretary of Agriculture under Trump), but I know he's not the only one, though Bonilla being both Mexican-American and a former local TV news reporter and station executive gives him enough communications carte blanche to work with VP Haley on the border affair. I also wouldn't be shocked if Henry Cuellar (former Democratic Rep. from the border who has since become seen as "too conservative" for the Democrats) is given some sort of opportunity within the DeSantis administration as well.

Also, for U.S. Ambassador to Ireland, while it's not clear about his politics, I would lean towards current PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan, who in the original Blank Canvas TL has retired from the post and lives around the corner from where Ron DeSantis used to live when he was a member of Congress. If not for an ambassadorship, an advisory position to Secretary of Commerce Glenn Youngkin with regards to sports and physical fitness would be nice, though not the Council associated with that matter (the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition), which I'm going to leave to an actual former pro athlete. I imagine the closest competition for Monahan for the position under Youngkin will be UFC President Dana White, but Dana White is as entrenched with UFC as Steve McMahon was to WWE before the latter got MeToo'd - therefore casting doubt into whether or not White will want to leave his lucrative post leading UFC for an arguably lower-profile position under a White House Cabinet secretary.

Lastly, I shall mention that Trump's former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark, Carla Sands, might be a potential starting point as far as a potential advisor with regards to whatever President's Committee on the Arts and Humanities gets reestablished is concerned (this council was disbanded in the wake of Trump's "very fine people" comments that arguably represented the second-lowest point (J6 being the lowest) of 45's presidency). I'd also see if Monroe County Commissioner and former Florida State Rep. Holly Merrill Raschein (who chairs Florida's Council on Arts and Culture) would be a decent fit for that commission as well. One thing I'm not going to go into detail on: the Kennedy Center Honors...who knows who will be considered for that?

But as I have said, I would imagine Russia and China to be very critical in regards to foreign policy objectives. A look through the foreign service ranks from the Trump era would be a starting point. (The link is actually a cached version of the current Wikipedia page which is all Biden's current ambassadors now.)
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« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2022, 09:59:54 PM »

Not very likely. The Republicans are going to be more focused on creating a robust bench of successors both in the White House and in Congress versus the sort of "King" mentality for which it seemed only Donald Trump "alone is capable of fixing it". Remember that the Republican voter is more conservative and less combative than Trump and DeSantis effectively is serving as the Reagan to Trump's Nixon.

A while back, there was a timeline where Reagan ran for a third term (you know, the one where two terrorist planes exploded over Tulsa and Ann Richards was elected Governor of Texas in 1986 as opposed to 1990?)
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« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2022, 10:57:16 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2022, 12:42:27 PM by SaintStan86 »

Wednesday February 12 2025
John Ratcliffe was sworn in this Morning as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and promised to protect the Country to the best of his abilities in his Introduction Speech.
South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem was confirmed as Secretary of the Interior by the Senate 58-42 in a late Night Vote that was held up for several Hours by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.
House Speaker Steve Scalise announced today that the House Leadership consisting of the Speaker, Majority Leader Banks, Majority Whip Ferguson & Conference Chair Hinson would travel to the White House to begin formal talks how to pass & implement President DeSantis Political Agenda. The Leadership will be joined by Rep Cassy Garcia, Monica de la Cruz and Mayra Flores. Scalise also invited the two Demcratic Senators from the Border State of Arizona, Mark Kelly & Kyrsten Sinema to join the Meeting with the Southern Border Crisis the Hot Topic. Before embarking to the White House Scalise held his Weekly News Conference and spoke to Reporters.

House Speaker Steve Scalise
„Good Morning! I know you all have a lot of Question and we will get to that a bit later. Today I can report to the American People that we will begin the first formal steps to solve our Southern Border Crisis and our Immigration System as a whole. Since the Biden Admistration took Office in January 2021 until the end of 2024 5.8 Million undocumted Immigrants crossed our Southern Border and overwhelmed our Communities particularly in the States of Texas & Arizona, yet the core Democratic Leadership in the House & Senate focused their attention on countless Spending Bills instead of resolving this Issue. President DeSantis has made illegal border crossings as one of the Central Pieces of his Presidential Campaign and we are now going to answer that call. I've made several trips myself to Texas & Arizona and the Situation is a complete mess down there. I am encouraged by the Open mind of Senators Sinema & Kelly who are standing behind me, to work with us. Immigration Reform shouldn't just be a Republican or Democratic Issue, it should concern all Americans. With that I am now going to answer some Question.“

REPORTER # 1: Will there be a Border Wall like former President Trump once suggested?

House Speaker Steve Scalise
„I knew this was coming. We don't know that yet. Look, a wall doesn't neccessarily mean you have less illegal Immigration. There are other Mechanisms to solve a Border Crisis like for example hiring more Border Patrol Agents. We have far less at the Southern Border then we need. We need more to be quite frank!“

REPORTER # 1: Given that previous Attempts to reform our Immigration System failed what makes you to believe you will be able to get something done this time?

House Speaker Steve Scalise
„The Country was very divided back then. We will have the Public on our side this time I believe. As I said in my remarks this isn't a Republican or Democratic Issue, it's an American Issue. There is no reason we can't craft an Immigration Bill that can pass with overwhelming bipartisan Majorities and I am sure we will other Democrats besides Senators Sinema & Kelly who are standing behind me. Thank You!“

Soon after House Speaker Scalise wrapped up his Weekly Press Conference CNN learned through Spokesperson for VP that Vice President Nikki Haley will attend that Meeting. This comes amid increased Speculation that President DeSantis is ready to tap his Vice President as BORDER CZAR sometime next week.

Also shall mention that the three Latina members from the border between Laredo and McAllen will also be joined by Morgan Cisneros Graham (whose district includes Brownsville) and Tony Gonzales (whose stretch of the border goes from north of Laredo all the way to just outside El Paso).

Also, for the House as a whole it shall be noted that New Hampshire's 1st District is now represented by Karoline Leavitt who in this TL is going on her second term as the baby of the House. Babysitter and adult diapers not included nor even necessary, though it's fair to say she will already have been on a number of "30 Under 30" lists and multiple Young Republican speaker engagements.

On some other appointments, may I suggest former U.S. Ambassador to Spain Duke Buchan as USAID Administrator? (USAID is the agency dealing with the implementation of foreign aid). Also, I would suggest former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Christopher Landau as a Special Advisor on Border and Immigration Policy within the DeSantis administration.

On the military front, I would suggest the following names:
  • Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: United States Central Command commander, Gen. Michael Kurilla, has taken over for Gen. Mark Milley, with conservatives viewing the promotion of "Gorilla" to succeed Milley as an "infinite improvement" given that Sean Hannity among others has viewed Milley as a "traitor".
  • Secretary of the Army: Rep. Mark Green of Tennessee, who was nominated by Donald Trump for the same post but never confirmed because of backlash over past comments regarding transgendered folks and Islam. He has since been elected to four congressional terms, and his congressional service will likely be of greater interest than whatever past comments were made in his pre-congressional days. He is also a fellow native of Jacksonville alongside President DeSantis.
  • Secretary of the Navy: Hung Cao, two-time former congressional candidate in Virginia who had two very strong performances against Rep. Jennifer Wexton. Cao's story as a Vietnamese immigrant who went on to serve his country is likely to be of great interest.
  • Secretary of the Air Force: Retired four-star general and SpaceX employee Terrence O'Shaughnessy, who retired in 2020 after 34 years of service to the Air Force including several tours as a Commander.

Lastly, it will be interesting to see if Raymond Arroyo (Fox News commentator and news director for EWTN) does indeed become U.S. Ambassador to the Vatican. Still looking through the Foreign Service and elsewhere at the very critical ambassadorships to Russia and China...
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« Reply #17 on: September 16, 2022, 07:37:13 PM »

Looks like California is in play! Though I shall note that Kevin McCarthy's victory was in large part owed to the Democrats being shut out of their primary for Senate, with McCarthy having defeated Ric Grenell in November of 2024. Still, the fact that Republicans are even talking of a "California Comeback", and also given Gavin Newsom is term-limited, has to be unsettling for the Donkey Brigade.
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« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2022, 08:31:59 AM »


NOTE: Except where noted, these are Class II Senators whose Senate terms end with the 2026 election.

Republican Ben Sasse of Nebraska is now the Secretary of Education. Fellow Republican and former Gov. Dave Heineman is only serving temporarily until the special election is held and a new Senator elected.
  • Declared: Former Gov. Pete Ricketts
  • Potential challenger: Angus cattle farmer and bull semen dealer Charles Herbster
  • Not running: Reps. Don Bacon, Mike Flood and Adrian Smith, and Omaha City Council member Pete Festersen

Republican Tommy Tuberville of Alabama
  • Not running: Former Sen. Doug Jones.
Republican Dan Sullivan of Alaska
Republican Tom Cotton of Arkansas
Democrat Chris Coons of Delaware
Republican Joni Ernst of Iowa
Republican Roger Marshall of Kansas
  • Potential challenger: Former Rep. Sharice Davids
Republican Daniel Cameron of Kentucky
Republican Steve Daines of Montana
Democrat Cory Booker of New Jersey
Republican Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma
Republican Bill Hagerty of Tennessee
Republican Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia

Democrat John Hickenlooper of Colorado
  • Potential challengers: Former Sen. Cory Gardner, 2022 gubernatorial nominee Heidi Ganahl, and Reps. Lauren Boebert, Eli Bremer and Ken Buck.
  • Not running: Colorado Springs Mayor and 2020 nominee Darryl Glenn.
Republican John Cornyn of Texas
  • Not running: Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke
Democrat Mark Warner of Virginia
  • Potential challenger: State AG Jason Miyares, Rep. Rob Wittman

Democrat Gary Peters of Michigan
  • Potential challengers: Former RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, Reps. Tom Barrett, Bill Huizenga and Lisa McClain

Democrat Jon Ossoff of Georgia
  • Declared: Former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan.
  • Potential challengers: Reps. Buddy Carter, Marjorie Taylor Greene (as a Republican) and Barry Loudermilk.
  • Not running: Gov. Brian Kemp and former Sen. David Perdue
Democrat Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire
  • Declared: Gov. Chris Sununu

Republican Jim Risch of Idaho - potential retirement
Democrat Dick Durbin of Illinois - potential retirement
Republican Bill Cassidy of Louisiana - potential retirement
  • Declared: Former Rep. Clay Higgins
  • Potential challengers: Rep. Mike Johnson, Former Rep. Cedric Richmond, attorney Caroline Fayard, various state-level Republicans (Unsurprising considering what Cassidy did in 2021)
Republican Susan Collins of Maine - potential retirement
Democrat Ed Markey of Massachusetts
  • Potential challengers: Rep. Ayanna Pressley
  • Not running: Former Gov. Charlie Baker
Democrat DFLer Tina Smith of Minnesota
  • Potential challenger: Rep. Tom Emmer
Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi
Democrat Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico
Republican Thom Tillis of North Carolina
  • Potential challengers: Fox News commentator Lara Trump, Reps. Jeff Jackson and Deborah Ross, former Reps. Madison Cawthorn (who if he runs will do so regardless of his personal troubles), Kathy Manning and Heath Shuler, State Sen. Jay Chaudhuri, former state AG Josh Stein
Democrat Jeff Merkley of Oregon
  • Potential challenger: Rep. Mike Erickson
Democrat Jack Reed of Rhode Island
Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina - potential retirement
  • Potential challengers: Reps. André Bauer, Jeff Duncan, Russell Fry, Anton Gunn, Nancy Mace, Ralph Norman, William Timmons, state AG Alan Wilson, former DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison, former State Rep. and CNN contributor Bakari Sellers
Republican Mike Rounds of South Dakota
Republican Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming

Republican Ben Sasse resigned to become Secretary of Education in the DeSantis administration. Former Gov. Dave Heineman is serving temporarily as Senator until a special election is held to fill the remainder of Sasse's term. As this particular seat is also up for reelection to a new six-year term in 2026, the potential candidates are aforementioned above.
Republican Tim Scott resigned to become Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the DeSantis administration. Sen. Catherine Templeton was appointed to fill the seat and has already declared for the special election.

No one, for now...
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« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2022, 08:34:40 PM »

The speech to Congress was gold, and certainly hit the high notes on such topics as Taiwan and Ukraine (but what about Hong Kong?), the ongoing border and immigration crises, the national debt, law enforcement and education with an aim towards career readiness, economic empowerment, school choice, a renaissance of civics, and teacher pay based on merit.

There are still unanswered questions remaining following the speech to the Congress:
  • What do to about the two Koreas? (Will Lil' Kim be willing to meet F2F with DeSantis? Will there be justice for Otto Warmbier?)
  • What about the future of Cuba? (Will having a Díaz-Balart for an ambassador make a difference on bringing Cuba closer to perestroika and glasnost?)
  • What about the Federal Reserve and the state of the dollar? (Certainly this has been a prime goal of a number of conservatives since the rise of the Tea Party movement)
  • What about the state of veterans' affairs in this country? (Especially after the latest in a long line of scandals involving VA hospitals and nursing homes following the scathing ABC News investigation during the Biden administration...and with a double amputee now taking command of the VA)
  • After border security, what to do about homeland security at the airports? (Remember that there are some of us who would like to keep the U.S. Marshals on planes, but otherwise would like the TSA to strike a better balance on safety and personal liberty...and there are some of us who do yearn for the days before 9/11 where we wished our folks well at the gate...)
  • What to make of the usual suspects in the whole talk of "starving the beast", particularly in Commerce and most of its spinoffs? (Imagine Blake Masters, Ben Sasse and even Jon Huntsman Jr. being the odd men out as "Daddy" Glenn Youngkin takes most of the cream of their usual "punching bag" departments...though it wouldn't shock me if Huntsman eventually found his way to Secretary of State should Robert O'Brien pull off an Alexander Haig or Rex Tillerson. To paraphrase what Eddie Valiant said in Who Framed Roger Rabbit?, Masters, Sasse and Huntsman "better start drinking it black", because eventually Daddy Youngkin will start taking the cream.)
  • Will there be a revival of "urban enterprise zones" under Tim Scott at HUD? (Certainly some would argue that DeSantis is the closest thing to Jack Kemp in addition to Reagan, as well as also being "Trump on decaf"...)
  • After the border saga concludes, where do John Ratcliffe and Chris Stewart go on the matter of Cold War 2.0 with Russia, China and North Korea? (and who fits in this edition of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy...)
  • Will some of Elon Musk and Richard Branson's wildest transportation horizons (looking at you, Hyperloop!) swing the pendulum on Secretary Nason's watch at DOT? (Not to mention what to do about the "OBiden"-era emissions standards and whether or not any company - if at all - wants to go back to ICE, and I don't mean the border...)
  • Will the GOP balance its conservation tradition with regards to the National Park Service with achieving economic goals particularly on energy concerns under Noem? Certainly, conservation is a bedrock priority of mostly younger Republicans, and especially with Eric Eikenberg at EPA...if you are a fan of Steve Hilton and have never heard of Benji Backer - SHAME ON YOU!
  • Will Ben Carson have the prescription for Obamacare reform or replacement? There are still some Republicans whose primary aim in politics is to dismantle Obamacare, but others have decided to live with it and find ways to improve quality while cutting costs and emphasizing "right to try" and advancing AMERICAN medical research.
  • Will the USDA under Ryan Quarles take out the waste in past farm bills and reorient focus to "family farmers"? Certainly, establishmentarians from both parties will grouse about it, not even knowing that the smokescreen about "family farmers being hurt" is mostly coming from Big Agribusiness and their donations that look worse than "pink slime"...
  • Will the GOP keep its commitments to deficit reduction, small business and "free and fair trade"? The Club for Growth, Matt Schlapp and the American Conservative Union, both the NFIB and even the more establishmentarian Chamber of Commerce, Charles Koch and yes even Donald Trump will be watching very closely to see which Republicans are waffling, as the left resorts to scare tactics whenever Republicans try to take up the mantle on the deficit and small business relief - looking for potential RINOs who vote to increase the deficit and stink up the Citizens Against Government Waste's annual Pig Book.
  • Will Ric Grenell find his groove at the UN and stand up to the "bullies" trying to get him to cave on Israel and China? (And how does he intend to approach Tedros and other "ultra-globalist" hardliners both in New York City and in Geneva?)
  • Will Lagoa restore faith in the Justice Department after the failures of Merrick Garland? Perhaps she could break the cycle of controversial Attorney Generals dating back to Janet Reno...
  • Lastly, who will lead the FBI? Expect an explosive hearing as Democrats bring up Charlottesville, J6 and even old FBI controversies like Waco. Fingers crossed there's not a mid-April surprise a la Oklahoma City or the Boston Marathon...

In closing, I am looking forward to DeSantis signing a REAL infrastructure bill, observe a NASA mission to the Moon if not Mars, renewed commitments on cancer research and the aforementioned "right to try" initiatives, and policies that encourage "points of light" and not continued government dependence with no path out of poverty in sight. That, and a budget surplus.

Lastly, what about the fate of "wokeness" initiatives that should be at least in the process of being dismantled by now? Also note that both Mike Garcia and Young Kim have fertile Republican benches where they are.
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« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2022, 01:08:38 AM »

Mayor Suarez later in the Day also received the Endorsements of Floridas Senior Senator Marco Rubio & Governor Jeanette Nuñez.

FLORIDA-19 (Primary March 18/General: April 22)
Former U. S. Representative Rep. Curt Clawson
Businessman Casey Askar
Urologist William Figlesthaler
State Representative Mike Giallombardo
State Representative Jenna Persons

Cindy Banyai
FLORIDA-21 (Primary March 18/General April 22)
Former U. S. Representative Tom Rooney
Former State Representative MaryLynn Magar
Former State Senate President Joe Negron

Corinna Robinson
FLORIDA-22 (Primary March 18/General April 22)
Miami Mayor Francis X. Suarez
Former U. S. Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
State Representative Robert Asencio
Miami-Dade County Commissioner Kionne McGhee

Senate Republicans received some welcomed News this Thursday that former Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts intends to run for the Open Senate Seat formerly held by former Senator & now Education Secretary Ben Sasse the Lincoln-Journal Star & local News Station KMTV-3 in Omaha have learned. Ricketts will make an Official Announcement in a couple of months as he assembles a Campaign Team.

Republicans received even bigger News out of the Granite State when the New Hampshire Union-Leader, the Concord Monitor and WMUR-9 in Manchester almost simultanously reported the BREAKING NEWS that Governor Chris Sununu is planning to challenge 79-year old Senator Jeanne Shaheen in 2026. A Spokesperson for Democratic Senatorial Campaign Cmte Chair Chris van Hollen did not take this News very well calling the New Hampshire Governor a "Phony" promping the Spokesperson for the Governor firing back "Senator Shaheen always claims to be an Independent and doing everything for her Citizens. Since when!"

Both, New Jersey Lieutenant Governor Sheila Oliver & '2021 Republican Nominee Jack Ciattarelli made it official today what was long expected. They are both running to succeed term-limited Governor Phil Murphy.

My predictions on the special election:
  • FL-19: Curt Clawson will have the backing of most conservative groups given that he had a strong conservative voting record during his three years in Congress. Before he made the surprising decision to retire to take care of his elderly and widowed father (who has since passed away during the Trump administration), Clawson was seen as a rising conservative star and a potential contender for the U.S. Senate when Marco Rubio was running for President (as his Senate seat was also up that year and he couldn't run for both, which explains why then-Rep. DeSantis ran for Rubio's seat...remember that race?). Casey Askar will be looking to pour in a good chunk of money in this race, and the two State Reps. running have experience working with DeSantis in Tallahassee, but will likely be limited because the current legislative session in Tallahassee is their primary focus now. William Figlesthaler is going to run a dirty campaign, just as he did in 2020 when he attempted to claim that then-State. Rep. Byron Donalds "was going to drop out of the race".
  • FL-21: The race that never was takes place as Tom Rooney attempts a return to Congress for the seat he first won in 2008, one that Joe Negron was forced to run under the auspices of the disgraced Mark Foley in 2006. MaryLynn Magar has experience working with DeSantis in his first two years in Tallahassee. Corinna Robinson has a decent background as an educator and combat veteran, but she is a sizable underdog in a district that has clearly shifted Republican since Donald Trump was first elected, having been previously held by former Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy for two terms in the 2010s.
  • FL-28: As expected, this is going to be the toughest fight of the three Florida specials, but Republicans have a favored candidate in Miami Mayor Francis Suarez who could very well win an outright majority in the district. The Democrats are essentially trying out for the role of "favorite" amongst the Democrats in the 2026 primary, with Debbie Mucarsel-Powell favored by the Dem establishment, with former State Rep. Robert Asencio and Miami-Dade County Commissioner Kionne McGhee battling for not only the progressive vote, but also reaching out to the "Yang Gang" which both view as "essential" to Democratic futures.
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« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2022, 01:55:01 AM »
« Edited: September 23, 2022, 02:57:40 AM by SaintStan86 »

Now just for the fun of it, here's where the Senators likely stand within their Democratic caucus/Republican conference...

CONSERVATIVES in the Republican Conference (These are the staunchest defenders of President DeSantis and the ones you'll be seeing the most often on Fox News and Newsmax):
Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee
Don Bolduc, New Hampshire (Bolduc defeated Chuck Morse last week IRL)
Mike Braun, Indiana
Ted Budd, North Carolina
Daniel Cameron, Kentucky
Bill Hagerty, Tennessee
Josh Hawley, Missouri
Ron Johnson, Wisconsin
Jim Jordan, Ohio
John Neely Kennedy, Louisiana
Adam Laxalt, Nevada
Mike Lee, Utah
Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming
Jerry Moran, Kansas
Rand Paul, Kentucky
Eric Schmitt, Missouri
Rick Scott, Florida
Catherine Templeton, South Carolina
Kelly Tshibaka, Alaska
Tommy Tuberville, Alabama
J.D. Vance, Ohio
Herschel Walker, Georgia

REGULAR Republicans (vote closely with the Senate leadership, but not necessarily squishes):
John Barrasso, Wyoming
John Boozman, Arkansas
Katie Britt, Alabama
John Cornyn, Texas
Kevin Cramer, North Dakota
Mike Crapo, Idaho
Steve Daines, Montana
Deb Fischer, Nebraska
Chuck Grassley, Iowa
Dave Heineman, Nebraska
John Hoeven, North Dakota
Cindy Hyde-Smith, Mississippi
Roger Marshall, Kansas
Kevin McCarthy, California
Patrick Morrisey, West Virginia
Jim Risch, Idaho
Mike Rounds, South Dakota
Dan Sullivan, Alaska
John Thune, South Dakota
Jill Vogel, Virginia
Roger Wicker, Mississippi
Todd Young, Indiana

HAWKS in the Republican Conference (generally some combination of overtly pro-military, based socially conservative, fairly populist, pro-manufacturing, or anti-woke - but not distinctly conservative):
Sam Brown, Nevada
Tom Cotton, Arkansas
Dan Crenshaw, Texas
Joni Ernst, Iowa
Mike Gallagher, Wisconsin
Lindsey Graham, South Carolina
John James, Michigan
James Lankford, Oklahoma
Markwayne Mullin, Oklahoma
Mark Ronchetti, New Mexico
Matt Rosendale, Montana
Marco Rubio, Florida

ROCKEFELLER Republicans who generally are moderate by design or a combination of fiscally conservative and socially liberal:
Susan Collins, Maine
Ben DuPont, Delaware
Dr. Mehmet Öz, New Jersey
Mitt Romney, Utah

Republican MAVERICKS that are basically all over the place and are more aggravators to the party leadership than helpers:
Rick Bennett, Maine
Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia
Bill Cassidy, Louisiana
Michelle Tafoya, Minnesota
Thom Tillis, North Carolina

Hard-left LIBERALS in the Democratic Caucus (These are the ones who consistently vote against even the most popular Republican Cabinet and judicial nominations):
John Fetterman, Pennsylvania
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York
Kai Kahele, Hawaii
Ed Markey, Massachusetts
Alex Padilla, California
Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts
Ron Wyden, Oregon
David Zuckerman, Vermont (Vermont Progressive Party, caucuses with the Democrats)

Traditional liberal ESTABLISHMENT Democrats who are neither Blue Dogs nor Bernie Brats:
Michael Bennet, Colorado
Richard Blumenthal, Connecticut
Chris Coons, Delaware
Dick Durbin, Illinois
Ben Ray Luján, New Mexico
Jeff Merkley, Oregon
John Sarbanes, Maryland
Brian Schatz, Hawaii
Chuck Schumer, New York
Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire
Tina Smith, Minnesota
Peter Welch, Vermont
Sheldon Whitehouse, Rhode Island

The "Soccer Mom" Caucus of "corporate Democrats", "pro-opportunity/pro-school choice" and more hawkish Democrats:
Cory Booker, New Jersey
Bob Casey Jr., Pennsylvania
Suzan DelBene, Washington
Tammy Duckworth, Illinois
Chris Murphy, Connecticut
Patty Murray, Washington
Jon Ossoff, Georgia
Gary Peters, Michigan
Jack Reed, Rhode Island
Chris Van Hollen, Maryland
Mark Warner, Virginia

BLUE DOG Democrats HATED by Alex Wagner fangirls:
John Hickenlooper, Colorado
Mark Kelly, Arizona
Kyrsten Sinema, Arizona

Three potential flashpoints in the Senate likely to come up:
  • Which establishment Republicans will attempt to cause a situation - as in six Republican objectors to such an amendment - where the Democrats push a filibuster on DeSantis's Balanced Budget Amendment proposal (one for which the Club for Growth, President DeSantis, former President Trump, the American Conservative Union and the Charles Koch network have threatened "retribution" on any dissidents)?
  • Will John Fetterman be in a situation where he ends up showing up in his usual mix of untucked button-down shirts, Carhartt gear or whatever on the Senate floor, thereby violating the unspoken Senate dress code and getting into a shouting match with Senate leadership over it?
  • Will Dan Crenshaw get carried away with a situation where he and/or his staff get busted eating some of the Texas-based candy at the "candy desk" he occupies in the Senate? (This apparently is not allowed as the rules state you can offer candy to other Senators but not eat the bulk of it yourself)
  • Lastly, which of the aged Senators up for election will hang it up in 2026, and if they retire whose true colors will come out (as in "I'm voting for this not-so-conservative piece of legislation because I'm retiring and it won't matter anyway" - think Pat Toomey's and Richard Burr's votes to convict Donald Trump after he announced his retirement, Lamar Alexander's vote against declaring a national emergency at the border, Olympia Snowe's vote for Obama's economic stimulus plan when the late Arlen Specter was still a Republican and Rob Portman's vote on Biden's infrastructure plan)
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« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2022, 08:15:37 PM »

Has President DeSantis signed anymore Executive Orders aside from the 3 you mentioned after the Inaugural Address?

I have no clue whom to nominate as FBI Director. Lagoa is on track to become one of the Stars of the Administration so I don't want her to get kneecapped! Probably the Reason DeSantis hasn't announced that Appointment.

As far as ELON MUSK & RICHARD BRANSON. They have competition as the Boing Starliner is probably operational by 2025.

Given the consistent DELAYS in the Artemis-1 Mission I am not sure when to schedule a Moon Mission. Probably during Q3 or Q4 of 2025 at the earliest.
@SaintStan86, my perfect choice for Director of the F.B.I. should be David Bowdich; formerly Deputy Director of the F.B.I. under Trump.
That would be a bad choice. No more Trump Alums. It would also potentially undermine Lagoas work.

If anything, a state bureau of investigation head would be a good starting point. LINK HERE
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« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2022, 07:30:41 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2022, 07:37:08 PM by SaintStan86 »

Wouldn't be shocked if Mark Glass got the nod for the FBI post, which is certain to be a true outsider move and a sign that DeSantis is looking to "think outside the box" as far as the future of the FBI is concerned. Though Karsten and Thompson do have their qualities between the former being a woman (for which Karsten would be the first such FBI Director) and Thompson having played a hand in recent civil asset forfeiture reforms in Kansas, which plays well with a large segment of the GOP electorate between more libertarian ones who want an end to the War on Drugs, 2nd Amendment hardliners who have distrust with the FBI over "red flag" laws and general "small government" types who wish to be left alone and not clumped in with the super crazy fringe that was inspired by past FBI controversies at Waco and Ruby Ridge (and which ultimately inspired Oklahoma City, Columbine and the 2013 Boston Marathon finish line - for whom I personally know someone who was running towards that finish line when the pressure cookers blew up).

Now as far as a "bloody April surprise", I shall mention April 15th. Wouldn't be shocked if it has to do with the IRS. As much as we hate to deal with the IRS and the TSA, we shall also remind ourselves that most if not all of these government bureaucrats do have lives outside of work that are not much different from our own everyday lives. The victim who died in that infamous plane crash in Northwest Austin some ten or so years ago caused by a despondent man targeting the IRS (one who even set his own house on fire) was a manager for the IRS who was a long-serving Army veteran, who (like most Texans) wore a trademark cowboy hat, watched football and enjoyed barbecue from Rudy's (of which I remember going there to eat ribs before it became mainstream and therefore too ubiquitous to qualify as a unique experience), and who was buried with full military honors and Patriot Guard riders to boot.

Getting somewhat back to point, I shall mention that while the situation may look perilous for Democrats right now, not all is lost for Tim Ryan, whose blue-collar background (nevermind his liberal voting record especially lately) and his being a former star high school quarterback is likely to be a strength of sorts for him as far as attracting "Reagan/Trump/DeSantis Democrats" in much the same way Bill Clinton and to a lesser extent Barack Obama did. Think Dan Conner, Al Bundy or a less-offensive Archie Bunker on O'Doul's, for instance. Yes, I do imagine that Ryan's strategy will play with some of the suburban swingers, but the main goal is reestablishing the Democratic Party in middle-sized American metros and rural areas. The gubernatorial victories by Tom McDermott in Indiana and Jason Kander in Missouri, not to mention Bob Casey Jr.'s reelection in Pennsylvania which also brought Matt Cartwright back to Congress in Scranton, are a starting point.

There's also a goal to reestablish the party with middle-class Black voters in places like South Carolina where they tend to be socially conservative and find the Democratic Party as it stands to be "too elitist" and "too patronizing" to them (as in "Seriously, can you approach us like normal Americans and not just because we're Black?"), as well as with union voters who feel lost in the wake of Richard Trumka's passing. Not to mention the enormous opportunity to reach out to those who voted for Andrew Yang and are drawn to such ideas as a "universal basic income" for the chronically unemployed and disabled, ranked-choice primaries, independent redistricting commissions, cryptocurrency, "Democracy Dollars" and various other concepts that were the hallmark of Yang's candidacy.

From an article I read in Slate:
Ryan, who describes himself as “feisty,” has turned more aggressive in recent days. Though Ryan has criticized the party for prioritizing appeals to “subgroups” over a central economic message, his volleys against Pelosi veer close to an identity politics of his own—Make the Democrats Great Again—that relies on hackneyed imagery such as the beer drinker on Steel Street. “This election’s not going to be won at fundraisers on the coasts,” he told the Wall Street Journal, “it’s going to be won in union halls in the industrial Midwest and fish fries in the Midwest and the South.” Ryan also told me that his relative youth would serve the party well with millennials. (Ryan, 43, is not a millennial.)

If the Democrats do not take these words seriously and start getting used to eating some good fish and chips with malt vinegar over some good craft beer with various flavors of rock and country music in the background, and learn to gracefully use a motorcycle the way Ann Richards did in Texas, they will experience a repeat of 2022/2024. Remember that there was once upon a time in Texas where being down 40 points in rural Texas was unacceptable for Texas Democrats compared to 15 to 20 percent elsewhere.
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Posts: 291
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« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2022, 10:15:31 PM »

Looking very good so far. Prayers be with our friends in Florida and Cuba facing the wrath of Hurricane Ian and its aftermath.

Will be watching Gov. DeSantis very closely and for sure his handling of Ian is going to be looked at with a YUGE microscope. So far, he's handling the matter very well with authoritative leadership. There for sure will be deaths and despair, but there will also be hope and hospitality in the coming days and weeks. Will be epic to see Sunny Hostin's quip about DeSantis being "President-in-waiting" become a motivating rock for DeSantis. As in "Take that, View ladies!"...
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