2025-29 -A Blank Canvas (user search)
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January 29, 2023, 08:39:02 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2025-29 -A Blank Canvas (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2025-29 -A Blank Canvas  (Read 11507 times)
Conditional Surrender Taft
theflyingmongoose
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,184
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« on: September 09, 2022, 06:16:12 PM »

Given the nature of this TL, I'm thinking the next time Democrats will gain seats will probably either coincide with Don Jr.'s re-election bid in 2036 or Laura Loomer's first midterms in 2042. Since obviously two-term Governor Doug Mastriano will sweep aside Casey in 2030.
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Conditional Surrender Taft
theflyingmongoose
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,184
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2022, 04:01:33 PM »

One more thing on the Cruz deal. Expect DeSantis to stress the importance of confirming his Cabinet by alluding to the Dems, example being "Voters respect Democrats for sticking to their principles - however faulty and bad they are - and for treating their constituents and supporters like "one big happy family". Republicans need to do the same. Ted Cruz is a solid conservative in the tradition of the great Attorney General under Ronald Reagan, Edwin Meese, and to cancel him because of some unfortunate votes he has taken in the past, or because some people especially in Hollywood and the media feel like he hurt them even though they never met the guy, would be a Greek tragedy of the highest order. Let's not turn our backs to the conservative principles that got us to where we are, because we all know for sure Barack Obama held his coalition together in passing budget-busting stimuluses, a destructive healthcare "reform" plan that has actually harmed Americans, and pushing through government and military transformations that served to the benefit of no one in the end. I know if Ronald Reagan were alive today, he would have spoken fondly of Cruz."

In other words, DeSantis is going to stress the importance of standing by his selections and conservative principles wholesale, while at the same time making bipartisan votes (such as on climate change) in the right areas where the free market plays a big role - important considering the American Conservation Council which is a free-market environmental advocacy group and for which Eric Eikenberg (the incoming EPA Administrator in this TL) has served as an advisor IRL. If you're a Republican and you don't have anything nice to say about Benji Backer, you are part of the problem and Steve Hilton seconds my motion.

The deficit was higher in 2019 than 2016.
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Conditional Surrender Taft
theflyingmongoose
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,184
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2022, 04:03:42 AM »

Meanwhile, here are the initial Hill Committee targets. If a district is not listed here, it's because that district is where DeSantis or Harris did well enough to where neither the DCCC nor NRCC are prioritizing it.

DCCC

AK-AL: Sarah Palin
AZ-02: Eli Crane (Northern Arizona) - might run for Governor
AZ-04: Kelly Cooper (South Phoenix suburbs)
AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (Tucson suburbs, SE Arizona)
AR-02: French Hill (Little Rock and suburbs) - leaning towards retirement
CA-09: Tom Patti (Stockton)
CA-22: David Valadao (Hanford, south Fresno and west Bakersfield) - potential retirement?
CA-26: Matt Jacobs (Ventura County including Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley)
CA-27: Mike Garcia (North Los Angeles County) - potential gubernatorial candidate
CA-45: Michelle Steel (Huntington Beach, Garden Grove) - potential statewide office
CA-47: Scott Baugh (Irvine, Newport Beach)
CA-49: Brian Maryott (San Clemente, Escondido, Camp Pendleton)
CO-03: Lauren Boebert (Grand Junction, Pueblo) - potential primary challenge
CO-07: Erik Aadland (Western Denver suburbs including Jefferson County)
CO-08: Barb Kirkmeyer (Northern Denver suburbs from Thornton up to Greeley)
CT-02: Mike France (Norwich, New London, Storrs) - potential gubernatorial run
CT-05: George Logan (Most of Litchfield County, plus Waterbury and Danbury)
FL-02: Neal Dunn (Tallahassee and Panama City) - potential retirement
FL-04: Aaron Bean (West and downtown Jacksonville)
FL-13: Anna Paulina Luna (Pinellas County save for St. Petersburg)
FL-15: Laurel Lee (northern Tampa suburbs)
FL-21: VACANT, was Brian Mast (northern Palm Beach County, plus the Treasure Coast)
FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar (Miami and Coral Gables)
FL-28: VACANT, was Carlos Giménez (south Miami-Dade County and the Florida Keys)
IL-05: Nimish Jani (northwest Chicago and suburbs from Rosemont and Arlington Heights to Schaumburg) - Definitely a top target given the circumstances of 2024 when the former Democratic incumbent (Raja Krishnamoorthi who has been indicted and is now facing trial) was raided by the FBI
IL-06: Peter Breen (Western Chicago suburbs; entirely within DuPage County)
IL-07: Keith Pekau (SW Cook County as well as most of Downers Grove in Chicago suburbs)
IL-08: Catalina Lauf (Outer northwest Chicago suburbs from Palatine to McHenry and northern Kane counties)
IL-11: George Pearson (Chicago's southern suburbs including most of Will County)
IL-12: Mike Bost (Metro East suburbs of St. Louis)
IL-17: Esther Joy King (Quincy, Moline and much of western Illinois)
IN-01: Jennifer-Ruth Green (Northwest Indiana)
IA-02: Ashley Hinson (NE Iowa including Cedar Rapids, Dubuque and Mason City)
IA-03: Zach Nunn (Des Moines and southern Iowa including Ottumwa)
KS-02: Jake LaTurner (Topeka, Pittsburg and much of eastern Kansas)
KS-03: Amanda Adkins (Kansas City area)
KY-06: Andy Barr (Lexington area)
MD-06: Neil Parrott (Western Maryland, northwest DMV suburbs)
MA-09: Jesse Brown (South Shore suburbs of Boston, Cape Cod and New Bedford)
MI-04: Bill Huizenga (Kalamazoo and SW Michigan) - potential retirement target
MI-07: Tom Barrett (Lansing to northwestern Detroit exurbs including Livingston County)
MI-08: Paul Junge (Flint and Mid-Michigan region)
MI-10: Mike MacDonald (Southern and central Macomb County, plus Rochester Hills in Oakland County)
MN-01: Brad Finstad (Southern Minnesota)
MN-02: Tyler Kistner (south Twin Cities suburbs) - potential Senate candidate
MN-08: Pete Stauber (northern Minnesota including Duluth) - potential Senate candidate
MO-02: Dean Plocher (western St. Louis suburbs)
MT-01: Ryan Zinke (western Montana including Missoula and Bozeman)
NE-01: Mike Flood (Lincoln and much of eastern Nebraska sans Omaha) - potential Senate candidate
NE-02: Don Bacon (Omaha and most suburbs)
NV-01: Mark Robertson (Las Vegas and southern Clark County including Henderson)
NV-02: Mark Amodei (Reno and northern Nevada)
NV-03: April Becker (Western Las Vegas suburbs including Summerlin)
NH-01: Matt Mowers (Manchester and Seacoast and Lakes regions) - potential gubernatorial or Senate candidate
NH-02: Bob Burns (Nashua, Keene and North Country region)
NJ-03: Bob Healey (Burlington County and inland parts of the Shore)
NJ-05: Christopher DePhillips (Northern Bergen and Passaic counties, other suburbs NW of New York City)
NJ-11: Tayfun Selen (Morris and western Essex County west of Newark)
NM-02: Yvette Herrell (southern New Mexico)
NM-03: Alexis Martinez Johnson (northern and eastern New Mexico)
NY-01: Nick LaLota (central and eastern Suffolk County including the Hamptons)
NY-02: Andrew Garbarino (South Shore areas on Long Island across Nassau and Suffolk counties)
NY-03: George Santos (North Shore areas on Long Island, as well as a northeast sliver of Queens)
NY-04: Anthony D'Esposito (SW Nassau County) - in the top of the pile for the Democrats
NY-17: Mike Lawler (Hudson Valley suburbs north of New York City including northern Westchester, Putnam and Rockland)
NY-18: Colin Schmitt (mid-Hudson Valley exurbs north of NYC including most of Orange, Dutchess and Ulster counties)
NY-19: Marc Molinaro (southern Capital District area + Binghamton)
NY-22: Brandon Williams (Syracuse and Utica) - likely trial balloon for midsized and rural America
NC-06: Jon Hardister (Greensboro)
NC-08: Mark Walker (High Point, Fayetteville and rural and exurban areas in between)
NC-13: Bo Hines (southern Research Triangle suburbs)
OH-03: Mike Turner (Dayton and immediate suburbs, plus Middletown) - potential retirement or gubernatorial run
OH-05: Bob Latta (Toledo and surrounding northwest Ohio) - potential retirement
OH-10: Max Miller (Lorain and western Cleveland suburbs)
OH-15: Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (Akron and Canton)
OR-05: Lori Chavez-DeRemer (southeast Portland suburbs including most of Clackamas County, as well as Salem and Bend)
OR-06: Mike Erickson (southwest Portland suburbs and exurbs)
PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (Bucks and eastern sliver of Montgomery counties) - may retire or face primary challenge
PA-04: Todd Stephens (most of Montgomery and Berks counties)
PA-06: Guy Ciarrocchi (Chester County and Reading)
PA-07: Lisa Scheller (Lehigh Valley)
PA-10: Scott Perry (Harrisburg and York)
PA-17: Jeremy Shaffer (west and NW Pittsburgh suburbs)
RI-02: Allan Fung (southern Providence suburbs from Cranston southward)
TX-07: Pierce Bush (west and southwest Houston)
TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (Weslaco to eastern San Antonio suburbs)
TX-23: Tony Gonzales (western San Antonio suburbs, Del Rio, Big Bend region)
TX-27: Mayra Flores (west Corpus Christi, Victoria and McAllen)
TX-28: Cassy Garcia (Laredo and south San Antonio suburbs)
TX-34: Morgan Cisneros Graham (east Corpus Christi, Brownsville and Rockport)
VA-02: Jen Kiggans (Virginia Beach and south Hampton Roads region)
VA-05: Bob Good (Charlottesville, Lynchburg and Danville)
VA-07: Yesli Vega (exurban Northern Virginia)
WA-03: Joe Kent (southwest Washington including Vancouver)
WA-08: Matt Larkin (eastern Seattle suburbs, plus Wenatchee)
WI-01: Bryan Steil (southeast Wisconsin including Kenosha, Janesville and Racine)
WI-03: Derrick Van Orden (western Wisconsin including La Crosse and Eau Claire)

NRCC

AL-02: Kirk Hatcher (Montgomery, northern Mobile)
CA-06: Ami Bera (North Sacramento, Arden-Arcade area)
CA-25: Manuel Pérez (Coachella, El Centro)
CA-46: Lou Correa (Anaheim, Santa Ana)
CO-06: Jason Crow (Aurora, southwest Arapahoe County)
CT-04: Jim Himes (Fairfield County including Bridgeport)
DE-AL: Bryan Townsend
FL-09: Darren Soto (South Orlando, east Orange County and all of Osceola County)
FL-22: David Silvers (most of Palm Beach County)
FL-23: Jared Moskowitz (Boca Raton and northern Broward County) - might run for Governor
FL-25: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fort Lauderdale area) - potential retirement
GA-02: James Beverly (Albany, Columbus, Macon and SW Georgia)
GA-07: Lucy McBath (most of Gwinnett County) - potential candidate for Governor
IL-10: Brad Schneider (Chicago's North Shore suburbs from Waukegan down to Wilmette)
IA-01: Mike Matson (Southeast Iowa including Davenport, Iowa City and SE corner of Des Moines metro area)
KY-03: Morgan McGarvey (Louisville)
ME-01: Ethan Strimling (Portland and southern Maine)
MD-02: Johnny Olszewski (Northern Baltimore suburbs)
MD-03: Sarah Elfreth (Southern and western Baltimore suburbs)
MA-02: Joseph Early Jr. (Worcester area)
MI-03: Hillary Scholten (Grand Rapids)
MI-11: Haley Stevens (Southern and central Oakland County) - potential gubernatorial candidate
MN-03: Melisa Franzen (Western Twin Cities suburbs)
MS-02: Chuck Espy (Jackson and Delta region)
NV-04: Mo Denis (North Las Vegas and northern Clark County, plus central Nevada)
NJ-06: Frank Pallone (Jersey Shore region as well as much of Middlesex County) - likely retirement
NM-01: Melanie Stansbury (Albuquerque area)
NY-20: Phil Steck (Capitol District including Albany)
NY-25: Joe Morelle (Rochester)
NY-26: Brian Higgins (Buffalo and Niagara Falls) - potential retirement target
NC-01: Don Davis (northeastern North Carolina)
OH-01: John Cranley (Cincinnati)
OR-04: Chris Edwards (much of western Oregon outside Portland area including Eugene, Coos Bay and Corvallis)
PA-08: Matt Cartwright (most of NE Pennsylvania including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre)
PA-12: Summer Lee (Pittsburgh and eastern suburbs)
TX-32: Colin Allred (north Dallas and immediate suburbs) - potential candidate for Texas Attorney General
VA-04: Donald McEachin (Richmond and southside Virginia)
VA-10: Jennifer Wexton (western Northern Virginia suburbs of DMV including Loudoun County)
WA-02: Seth Fleetwood (northern Puget Sound region including Everett and Bellingham)
WA-06: Derek Kilmer (Western Washington outside of metro Seattle and Vancouver)

The list includes a number of suburban and working-class areas where DeSantis won by less than 10 percent, as well as potential retirement targets across the country that are expected to be at least somewhat competitive in an open seat race. Not much is expected though outside of the basic count of pickups in the House, due to the very fluid nature of congressional races; even though it is very unlikely that there will be Senators or DeSantis administration members who served in Congress beginning AFTER 2024, as it is virtually impossible to predict the complete outcome for every congressional seat and their potential incumbents beyond 2024. Remember that virtually no one heard of Dan Crenshaw other than being a recent college grad with a young wife who just sneaked into a GOP runoff in March 2018. Guess where he is now...

LOL at the RCCC targeting any districts. Although given the nature of this TL it's possible we won't see a House less than 300 Rs until President Loomer's second midterm in 2054.
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Conditional Surrender Taft
theflyingmongoose
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,184
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2022, 10:41:05 AM »

Here's what I'm thinking as far as elections:

2028: DeSantis def. Ocasio-Cortez, 535-3
2032: Haley def. Ramirez-Rosa, 535-3 (CA loses 15 EVs for being socialist)
2036: Haley def. Fried, 475-63
2040: Loomer def. Crist, 472-66
2044: Loomer def. Harris, 468-70
2048: Gallagher def. Emhoff, 428-110
2052: Gallagher def. Tliab, 417-121
2056: Gallagher def. Pressley, 398-140
2060: Gallagher def. Ramirez-Rosa, 372-166

As far as laws:
-Total immigration ban
-Total abortion ban
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Conditional Surrender Taft
theflyingmongoose
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,184
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2022, 08:19:21 PM »

Will DeSantis repeal the 22nd?
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Conditional Surrender Taft
theflyingmongoose
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,184
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2022, 07:55:47 PM »

I think Collins will retire. In such a big R caucus, she doesn't have much sway anymore. A replacement by Jared Golden is probably in the cards.
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Conditional Surrender Taft
theflyingmongoose
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,184
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2022, 04:12:00 AM »

DeSantis's education proposal was remarkably decent.

Will he pass Rubio's child tax credit or Romney's child allowance? That seems like a good way to eliminate wasteful spending while still keeping the poor people among the base happy.
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Conditional Surrender Taft
theflyingmongoose
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,184
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2022, 07:44:47 PM »

Did Truss win the election?
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Conditional Surrender Taft
theflyingmongoose
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,184
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2022, 12:50:12 AM »

The Democrats in this TL are comically incompetent.
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Conditional Surrender Taft
theflyingmongoose
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,184
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #9 on: December 01, 2022, 10:33:59 PM »

Yes, and prayers be with the McEachins in these darkest of times.

I'm guessing the early money on State Sen. Jennifer McClellan, but there are some who say the late Congressman's widow, Richmond Commonwealth Attorney Colette McEachin, is the lone true successor to her husband. There's even some who say another State Sen., Joe Morrissey, is the one, but he is an oddball on the level of the infamous Edwin "Crook" Edwards, and for reasons beyond the impropriety allegations with the Millennial woman he eventually married.

As for Leon Benjamin, he might have pockets of strength around the western Hampton Roads area and in both Southside Virginia and Richmond's West End, but other than that he's a heavy underdog who will get slaughtered everywhere else in the district, even with the Glenn Youngkin endorsement. But if the Blexit crowd wanted to have a golden opportunity to surprise people, this would be an early test of that.

On an unrelated note, this is going to be a heavily retconned TL now given that Trump is in, Biden is in, and several of the Rs who won in the beginning of the OG TL are not in their positions. I was right on Katie Hobbs and John Fetterman for the Democrats and Anthony D'Esposito for the GOP, but Christine Drazan and Doug Mastriano aren't there (though the latter's eye-popping loss was definitely of his own doing, even taking away the childish denialism about 2020 - name one Republican who thinks avoiding the mainstream media for interviews is a "winning" strategy!).

Yeah, your predictions that Dixon and Mastriano would win was perhaps the largest miss.
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