2025-29 -A Blank Canvas (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2025-29 -A Blank Canvas (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2025-29 -A Blank Canvas  (Read 19529 times)
NewYorkExpress
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« on: September 08, 2022, 07:54:34 PM »

I would say the most likely flips in 2026 in the Senate, considering the nature of this TL are Georgia (D to R), Michigan (D to R), Minnesota (D to R), New Hampshire (D to R), New Mexico (D to R), and Virginia (D to R), with honorable mentions to New Jersey (D to R), Maine (R to D), Colorado (D to R) and Delaware (D to R).
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2022, 08:33:36 PM »

A good point of reference to utilize, during the 2025-26 political cycle. The special elections for the vacancies created by the resignations of Mast(FL.,-21), Donalds(FL.,-19) and Gimenez (FL.,-28), Ratcliffe (TX.,-5) and Stewart (UT.,-2), might be a barometer of popularity for the relatively new DeSantis Administration. Hopefully Rinaldi the new Chairman of the RNC, will have enough game to recruit candidates good enough to retain the vacant seats.

Other than FL-28 these all should be easy Republican holds, even if DeSantis quickly becomes very unpopular. And FL-28 basically depends on who both parties recruit, and at this point Republicans have the deeper bench in the Miami area than Democrats do.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2022, 05:30:25 PM »

On the eve of Ron DeSantis's inauguration, I am thinking that since Gov. Phil Murphy, is term limited,  that Republicans will be considering who there strongest candidate could be, there is New Jersey GOP chairman, Bob Hugin or 2021 Gubernatorial nominee, Jack Ciatarelli  or maybe former Senator Jeff Chiesa; it will be noted that Chiesa was appointed to the U.S. Senate in 2013 by then Gov. Chris Christie to replace the deceased Sen.Frank Lautenberg . On the Democratic side of the aisle, there's likely to be an even more competitive primary contest if it comes to it. One possibility being mooted to run is Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver, but considering her age, she will be 73 years old by this coming November; however there is a possibility that Congressman Rob Menendez Jr., (N.J.-8) is considering a possible run, to avenge the defeat of his father, by Mehmet Öz last November. Other Democrats who might run could include another Congressman Donald Norcross (N.J.-1) and Mayor Steve Fulop of Jersey City; Fulop is a former Marine and served in Iraq and he would likely be the most appealing Democrat on the bench. Another state holding a Governorship race this November is Virginia, in which current Gov. Glenn Youngkin who would be term-limited, and has been tapped by incoming President Ron DeSantis to be Commerce Secretary; if and when Youngkin goes to Washington, his replacement as Governor will be current Lt. Governor, Winsome Sears .
She will have the advantage of incumbency, very rare in Virginia, considering the one-term rule. She also would be the first African American woman to hold the position. Democrats will be looking to recruit someone just as appealing to challenge  names on the radar include Congresswoman Jennifer Wexton , (Va.,-10) and Mayor of Richmond, Levar Stoney who's term expires on January 31st. It is not usual that the incumbent party, win or hold both the Governorship's of New Jersey and Virginia. The last time it occurred was in 1965, during the presidency of Lyndon B. Johnson. The question remains can DeSantis see his party replicate this feat.

I would expect either Republicans winning both Virginia and New Jersey, or a split decision, with Republicans winning Virginia and losing New Jersey, considering the nature of this timeline.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2022, 07:18:07 PM »

Given the nature of this TL, I'm thinking the next time Democrats will gain seats will probably either coincide with Don Jr.'s re-election bid in 2036 or Laura Loomer's first midterms in 2042. Since obviously two-term Governor Doug Mastriano will sweep aside Casey in 2030.

I disagree. I'd actually say 2030, when DeSantis is on the back end of his second term will be the next D wave, but Democrats will likely gain House and Senate seats in 2028 and possibly 2026 if DeSantis's popularity does in fact slip.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2022, 02:38:21 AM »

Cruz will be the most contentious hearing, but unlike someone like Ken Paxton, he's not going to be in any serious danger of being voted down. I could however, see enough Republican Senators vote against Cruz to the point where Nikki Haley is needed to break a tie, as Cruz is hated by pretty much everyone in the Senate that isn't Ted Cruz.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2022, 06:37:39 AM »

This is Lindsey Graham on Ted Cruz:

Quote
“If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you,
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2022, 11:23:41 AM »

@President Stanton,
I've changed the Dates a bit for the Special Elections in FL because 3 Months between the Primary and the General is a little bit long, don't you think?

Ron DeSantis left Alcee Hastings's seat vacant almost a whole year, so I don't think six months between resignation and the special is too long.

As for three months between the primary and special, I'm not sure Florida law allows that, but it makes more sense to move the primary back, rather than move the general up.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2022, 11:41:59 AM »

@President Stanton,
I've changed the Dates a bit for the Special Elections in FL because 3 Months between the Primary and the General is a little bit long, don't you think?
Actually that is a pretty good suggestion, so yep let's go April 22 it sounds more tangible when one thinks about it; actually I'm looking for possible contenders to run in those particular district's.

For FL-19, I'd suggest (former) State Senator Kathleen Passidomo for the Republicans. No clue for the Democrats.

For FL-21 I'd suggest State Representative Dana Trabulsy for the Republicans. No idea for the Democrats

For FL-28, I would recommend State Senator Ana Maria Rodriguez for the Republicans, and former State Senator Annette Taddeo for the Democrats.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2022, 01:08:10 PM »

I'd put Georgia and Virginia in Lean R, and Maine in Lean D.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2022, 12:54:06 PM »
« Edited: September 11, 2022, 01:40:16 PM by GM Team Member NewYorkExpress »

Honestly, if I were DeSantis, I would pick a Biden appointed appellate court judge as Attorney General, as that would allow me to make a judicial appointment I might not otherwise be able to make, and the Judiciary has proven to be more important and valuable for Republicans.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2022, 03:07:55 PM »

I think for UT-2 a Mia Love comeback would be nice.

Has anyone been announced as the intended appointment to replace Tim Scott yet? If not, may I suggest that Mick Mulvaney get the appointment?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2022, 08:24:35 PM »


I don't think he has the votes in enough state legislatures to so. He'd probably need another GOP wave in 2024 to get the votes to do so in Congress, in fact.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2022, 05:03:54 PM »

I would guess the most likely scenarios for Republicans to pick up the Governor's mansion in California are Democrats locking themselves out again (they have a bunch of possible candidates, and it's not like Harris is going to clear the field if she runs), or Harris being the leading Democrat facing a single strong Republican (possibly someone Falcouner or Grennell) after the top-two primary (she's easily the weakest potential candidate, and that's without counting her in-timeline 2024 performance).

I think a non-Harris Democrat should still win, assuming Democrats don't lock themselves out again.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2022, 09:12:01 AM »

I feel like DeSantis is stepping into a huge minefield by trying to deal with immigration. The Republican base (i.e the voters that elected him) want to get rid immigration altogether, while the donors who donated to him want more, cheap immigrants. He can't please both groups simulteanously.

If I were him, I'd have picked a different issue (maybe something like police reform, which actually can be done bipartisan, if DeSantis is interested in sending a proposal. Someone like Tim Scott could draft it, and someone like Anthony D'Esposito or Andrew Garbarino could introduce it in the House, and possibly someone like Kyrsten Sinema or Daniel Cameron could introduce it in the Senate.)..
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2022, 06:51:25 PM »

Given Liz Truss is really unpopular and probably won't be PM by the time that press conference takes place, maybe you should consider swapping her out for someone else as UK PM? Maybe Rishi Sunak or whoever the Labor Party leader is (presumably still Keir Starmer) would be a better choice?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2022, 08:59:47 PM »

You are on the money there @2016, that takes us up to around April 17. So sometime around then, DeSantis will issue the order whatever to implement whatever plan that the NSC have agreed on.
The options likely
  • Sanctions
: Not effective
  • Covert Ops
: Unlikely as HUMINT not available
  • [Surgical Air Strikes: Drone & Stealth Aircraft
    • Combo Surgical Strikes & Cyber Attacks.
      Also it might behoove the administration to find out if Iran is financing the enrichment program. If North Korea's efforts are that advanced.

I can't see why Iran would care about North Korea's nuclear program.

FYI, if DeSantis decided to just drop a nuke on Pyongyang, probably only the very hard left, and maybe some countries unaffected by North Korea's actions (probably those in Europe) would care at all. Maybe there'd be scattered protests about a nuke being used, or the civilian lives lost, but most, at least in America would accept DeSantis's decision, and he'd become the most popular person in Japan, at least temporarily.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2022, 05:03:52 AM »

I think a massive ground invasion of North Korea+Multiple decapitation strikes at the Chinese government to prevent them from interfering would be the correct move here.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2022, 11:06:39 PM »

Excellent work, 2016 and Stanton! Also glad to see Lance Gooden back in Congress after finishing second in the battle for the Senate on the GOP side...

Shall mention that across the pond, Prime Minister Liz Truss is going to be no more. Looks like Boris Johnson is back, and apparently turned things around in time for the 2025 election where his Tories defeat Keir Starmer and Ed Davey, for whom the latter effectively aligns with Johnson to form a coalition government given the LibDems have a niche amongst upper-middle-class suburban voters in the UK; they would do well in a lot of inner suburban upper-crust areas in the U.S. if we were to convert congressional districts to constituencies and import the UK parties to America, leaving Labour with a coalition of socialists, young lefties, Trump Democrats and poorer, non-working class minorities. (The Hispanics and Asians would still be swing votes.)

Also pretty much know, given what I know about Texas politics, that there have to be term limits on state legislators, too. Or is that completely separate? Certainly it would be hypocritical of the Lege to impose term limits on the statewide office row and not do the same for themselves...

GO ASTROS!

I told you all of you that Liz Truss wouldn't be Prime Minister by this point. Can't see it being Johnson either, if only because that would mean the Conservatives getting crushed at the next election.

I'd go with Rishi Sunak or Priti Patel instead.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2022, 12:50:06 AM »

Also shall note that in the OG Blank Canvas TL, the very same refinery had an explosion the year before. Evidence of that is posted here for reference:

July 18, 2024
DOZENS KILLED, HUNDREDS INJURED IN EXPLOSION AT FORT MOORE; TERRORISM RULED OUT AS CAUSE OF EXPLOSION
An explosion Thursday afternoon on the grounds of Fort Moore (formerly Fort Benning) in Georgia left 39 dead and over 400 injured, many of them active service members with the U.S. Army as well as contractors hired by the Department of Defense to work on base. According to eyewitness accounts, the explosion reportedly happened around 1 p.m. Eastern time when an electrical short in a climate-controlled room within the Logistics Readiness Center enveloped into a massive fireball that flashed over and set off subsequent explosions, destroying warehouses on the property and causing significant damage to much of the military vehicle fleet on base. Some of the fatalities were so critically burned that dental records will be necessary to identify some of the victims, while at least 60 others were critically injured to the point where they had to be transported to hospitals well outside the surrounding Columbus, Georgia area; hospitals in Atlanta, Birmingham, Macon and Huntsville have been on standby, with Grady Memorial Hospital in Atlanta reportedly diverting its own local trauma cases to other nearby hospitals to accommodate the most seriously injured victims from the Fort Moore blast.

President Biden spoke to the nation in a rare Oval Office address, calling the explosion "a senseless and horrible tragedy affecting one of our nation's most elite and storied Army institutions - Fort Banning (sic) - Fort Moore I shall say" and "vowing a complete and thorough investigation after the deceased are buried into why this happened, and what can be done to ensure a tragedy of this magnitude never happens again". Attorney General Merrick Garland also ruled out the possibility that terrorism played a role in the explosion, "Based on records we have obtained so far, there is no evidence to suggest that any sort of terrorism against our military occurred at Fort Moore this afternoon", while Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin pointed out that "Given how relatively new these facilities are, a lot of work is going to be put into finding out why such relatively new facilities on the grounds of Fort Moore could not withstand the impact of this explosion".

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp ordered flags lowered to half-staff across the state, with President Biden expanding the order to a federal mandate shortly after his primetime address. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also issued his thoughts and condolences to the victims of the explosion, while several other Republicans began to probe the origins of the tragedy. House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, whose Alabama district borders Fort Moore, has also held off on assigning blame for the tragedy but has already indicated that "our committee is going to get to the bottom of why this happened and will be working closely with authorities at the Pentagon and locally to pinpoint the cause of this explosion". Particularly in Georgia and nearby Alabama, the explosion has also prompted long lines for blood donations at blood banks throughout the Southeast, while numerous charity benefits benefiting the victims and families of both the injured and killed service members have also begun to pop up.

July 19, 2024
21 DEAD, OVER 200 INJURED IN EXPLOSION AT REFINERY IN HOUSTON
Not even a full 24 hours after the disaster at Fort Moore in Georgia, an explosion at a chemical plant on the Houston Ship Channel awakened thousands of residents just before the sun was up at 6 a.m. The explosion occurred at the Pemex refinery in Deer Park, an industrial suburb of Houston where neighbors were awakened to the sound of a loud bang, burning petroleum and sirens of first responders racing to the scene. By afternoon, 21 were confirmed dead and more than 200 were injured including several with third-degree burns, along with reports of damage as far west as Sugar Land, Galveston and The Woodlands and dozens more injured from shattered glass and debris as windows were blown out of many downtown Houston skyscrapers. Houston freeways were also shut down as reports of damage along Interstate 10 from Baytown to the Memorial area of west Houston, along with a frantic push by authorities to clear the freeways for ambulances and fire trucks, disrupted the morning commute in the nation's fourth-largest city.

Following news of a second straight disaster in as many days, President Biden addressed the nation once again at 8 P.M. Central time, declaring "Our hearts go out to the victims of the horrible tragedy in Houston, victims of a disaster that did not have to happen", perhaps alluding to the oil and gas industry that has been singled out by the Biden administration from day one over the nature of its industry. Republicans blasted the speech, with Ron DeSantis calling the President's concerns "hollow" and calling on Kamala Harris to decide whether or not to align with "far-left radicals" who back her party's "Green New Deal" or with working-class voters "who wonder if the Democratic Party even wants them anymore". Senate Majority Leader John Cornyn, the senior Senator from Texas, arrived at Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston on Friday evening and immediately vowed "a thorough investigation into what happened at the Pemex refinery", and also called out Democrats for "attempting to politicize this tragedy for their own benefit". His Senate colleague, Sen. Ted Cruz, was already in the area when the explosion happened and took to Fox News late that evening: "The Biden administration will use any sort of tragedy involving the oil and gas industry to force the Great Reset on Americans who don't want it, period."

Gov. Greg Abbott canceled his entire weekend schedule to focus on recovery and healing efforts with regards to the tragedy, and also lambasted his Democratic counterparts for "attempting to politicize yet another tragedy in our great state solely for the purpose of radically transforming this state". "Of course, we must give thoughts and prayers, and that is what the victims and their families want. Let us grieve now and let's discuss the why behind this later, because justice is not going to come in the form of vengeance with impulse", said Abbott. As of Friday evening, crude oil prices reportedly shot up more than nine percent, with gas prices expected to rise in the coming days, bringing back memories of 2022's historically high gas price crunch that doomed President Biden's agenda in that year's midterm elections.

Also, note that the refinery says Pemex instead of Shell. Shell sold its stake in this refinery earlier this year. In other words, expect Mexico to get involved in this matter as well, if not for the fact that Mexican nationals have to be amongst the dead since a large portion of the workers and contractors killed here are certain to be Hispanic. It also wouldn't shock me if this is viewed as a dark day in the Hispanic community in much the same vein as the Mexico City earthquake, the murder of Selena, etc. to the point where it is going to dominate on Univision and Telemundo for weeks if not months. (The eastern parts of the Houston area around the Ship Channel are dominated by Hispanics and blue-collar Anglos.)

Also, expect some sort of response from Houston and Harris County regarding this tragedy as well (though I am really not going to elaborate until at least after next week because there's a very good chance that Harris County is going to have a new county judge - we already know that in the OG TL Mike Knox is the Mayor of Houston and Alexandra del Moral Mealer is Harris County Judge, and Mealer has a shot IRL to defeat Lina Hidalgo next week) and also responses and commentaries from such dignitaries as Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale, Dave Ward, Dr. Peter Hotez and various Astros players (several of whom are Hispanic including Jose Altuve among others) - not to mention a very famous musician and actress with a certain "Beyhive".

News article on Shell's sale of its stake in the Deer Park refinery from the horse's mouth right here.

Plus one on security matters affecting the sale here from Reuters.

So, either that refinery has horrible security to let terrorists on the premises two years in a row, or it isn't terrorism.
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