Nevada ?! Really ?

[MargieCat]

I think Nevada is one of the few swing-states where the election systems benefit democrats.

The fact that mail ballots are automatically mailed out to every voter, makes it extremely easy to vote. Even for the lowest of low propensity voters.

Of course some will argue that low propensity voters are now Trump supporters. But Trump supporters don't like vote by mail and will scream if a ballot shows up in their mail box.

I couldn't help but crack up at this. It's true, of course.

I honestly think Nevada's election system swings the state anywhere from 2-5 points left of where it would be had they had more restrictive election laws.

The state might have been anywhere from Tilt-D (like WI/AZ/GA) to Lean-R (like NC or FL) in 2020.

[ottermax]

Nevada might be the flip of Florida. It has so many similarities to the state but it tilts just enough for Democrats. I think one thing that helps Democrats in Nevada is the political mythology and culture for party politics.

In Florida where you have some similar underlying dynamics demographically, the underpinning fear of communism is a very effective rhetorical strategy for the population.
Nevada on the other hand doesn't have as strong of a villain (California might work but also many Nevadans were Californians or have close connections) to instigate fear. When the culturally conservative issues of education, gender pronouns, CRT were more common they may have had some sway in Nevada, but now that socially conservative issues are prominent I think there is less sway than in a place like Florida which is demographically similar but both socially and culturally conservative.

Essentially Nevada is culturally conservative, but not socially conservative, and lacks the fear of socialism that empowers Republicans in similar places elsewhere.

All this being said, Nevada will be a critical test case to see if Trumpism is really making any headway across all Latinos or just those in Florida and South Texas.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Nevada might be the flip of Florida. It has so many similarities to the state but it tilts just enough for Democrats. I think one thing that helps Democrats in Nevada is the political mythology and culture for party politics.

In Florida where you have some similar underlying dynamics demographically, the underpinning fear of communism is a very effective rhetorical strategy for the population.
Nevada on the other hand doesn't have as strong of a villain (California might work but also many Nevadans were Californians or have close connections) to instigate fear. When the culturally conservative issues of education, gender pronouns, CRT were more common they may have had some sway in Nevada, but now that socially conservative issues are prominent I think there is less sway than in a place like Florida which is demographically similar but both socially and culturally conservative.

Essentially Nevada is culturally conservative, but not socially conservative, and lacks the fear of socialism that empowers Republicans in similar places elsewhere.

All this being said, Nevada will be a critical test case to see if Trumpism is really making any headway across all Latinos or just those in Florida and South Texas.

I used to consider Nevada our Florida until 2020, now I'm not so sure. One thing's certain though, that I wish Nevada was the electoral prize Florida is.

Anyway, perhaps more relevant to the topic at hand, Laxalt is supposedly struggling with fundraising, like other GOP Sneate candidates:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/nevada-republican-adam-laxalt-cant-raise-money-and-wont-shut-up-about-it?ref=scroll

Yes, yes, money isn't everything, but it is a weakness of his compared to Cortez Masto's war-chest...which she may or may not be utilizing well. It's yet another factor that makes this such a murky race.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nevada might be the flip of Florida. It has so many similarities to the state but it tilts just enough for Democrats. I think one thing that helps Democrats in Nevada is the political mythology and culture for party politics.

In Florida where you have some similar underlying dynamics demographically, the underpinning fear of communism is a very effective rhetorical strategy for the population.
Nevada on the other hand doesn't have as strong of a villain (California might work but also many Nevadans were Californians or have close connections) to instigate fear. When the culturally conservative issues of education, gender pronouns, CRT were more common they may have had some sway in Nevada, but now that socially conservative issues are prominent I think there is less sway than in a place like Florida which is demographically similar but both socially and culturally conservative.

Essentially Nevada is culturally conservative, but not socially conservative, and lacks the fear of socialism that empowers Republicans in similar places elsewhere.

All this being said, Nevada will be a critical test case to see if Trumpism is really making any headway across all Latinos or just those in Florida and South Texas.

Nevada overall is very socially liberal compared to it's topline partisanship on most social issues. For instance, it's like pro-choice + 30 and has supported SSM for quite a while. Also Cannabis numbers are off the roof. It's def a combo of turnout dynamics and economic issues which keep the state close.

[Ogre Mage]

Nevada overall is very socially liberal compared to it's topline partisanship on most social issues. For instance, it's like pro-choice + 30 and has supported SSM for quite a while. Also Cannabis numbers are off the roof. It's def a combo of turnout dynamics and economic issues which keep the state close.

This is an underappreciated advantage Cortez Masto has in her race again Laxalt.  Nevada is a strongly pro-choice state.  Dobbs is very unpopular.  Some polling has suggested for Nevada voters, abortion is the second-most important issue after the economy.  This gives Cortez Masto a big stick to swing against Laxalt.  Post Dobbs, the optics of a forced birth Republican man running against a pro-choice Democratic woman are very bad for the GOP in Nevada.

[MillennialModerate]

Did the OP really not learn to make uninformed takes about Georgia after getting embarassed three times?

Georgia voted 3.5 to 4 points RIGHT of the nation in 2020.

I don’t see a Dem +4.5 environment.

Georgia is more than likely the first flip for the GOP. By 2026 it’ll be a blueish purple state and by 2030 it’ll be Dem. But right now…. It’s a tossup and in this environment it’s Lean R

[ProgressiveModerate]

Did the OP really not learn to make uninformed takes about Georgia after getting embarassed three times?

Georgia voted 3.5 to 4 points RIGHT of the nation in 2020.

I don’t see a Dem +4.5 environment.

Georgia is more than likely the first flip for the GOP. By 2026 it’ll be a blueish purple state and by 2030 it’ll be Dem. But right now…. It’s a tossup and in this environment it’s Lean R

The assumes universal shift which isn’t real. In 2018 GA voted like 8 points to the right of the nation. In 2016 it was about 8 points again. The southern states tend to be under reactive to waves due to polarization. If you really want to make that argument, a state like AZ would be better because it tends to suffer from low Hispanic turnout in midterm years

[MillennialModerate]

Yeah I was late to the party but I’m convinced now.

This is a Lean R seat

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I can tell we're getting close to election day because I start getting MillenialModerate and SnowLab confused with each other (no offense, gents.  I do like you both

[coloradocowboi]

Nevada overall is very socially liberal compared to it's topline partisanship on most social issues. For instance, it's like pro-choice + 30 and has supported SSM for quite a while. Also Cannabis numbers are off the roof. It's def a combo of turnout dynamics and economic issues which keep the state close.

This is an underappreciated advantage Cortez Masto has in her race again Laxalt.  Nevada is a strongly pro-choice state.  Dobbs is very unpopular.  Some polling has suggested for Nevada voters, abortion is the second-most important issue after the economy.  This gives Cortez Masto a big stick to swing against Laxalt.  Post Dobbs, the optics of a forced birth Republican man running against a pro-choice Democratic woman are very bad for the GOP in Nevada.

It's why I still have Nevada as leaning D. LGBT and abortion issues are toxic for the GOP there. It'ss gonna be a 2 or 3 point race either way tho.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nevada overall is very socially liberal compared to it's topline partisanship on most social issues. For instance, it's like pro-choice + 30 and has supported SSM for quite a while. Also Cannabis numbers are off the roof. It's def a combo of turnout dynamics and economic issues which keep the state close.

This is an underappreciated advantage Cortez Masto has in her race again Laxalt.  Nevada is a strongly pro-choice state.  Dobbs is very unpopular.  Some polling has suggested for Nevada voters, abortion is the second-most important issue after the economy.  This gives Cortez Masto a big stick to swing against Laxalt.  Post Dobbs, the optics of a forced birth Republican man running against a pro-choice Democratic woman are very bad for the GOP in Nevada.

It's why I still have Nevada as leaning D. LGBT and abortion issues are toxic for the GOP there. It'ss gonna be a 2 or 3 point race either way tho.

While I agree most social issues heavily favor Dems in NV, what about the economy where polling has been brutal for Dems in NV? I think a lot of this form understate how much COVID lockdowns and restrictions really harmed Las Vegas's economy specifically.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Nevada overall is very socially liberal compared to it's topline partisanship on most social issues. For instance, it's like pro-choice + 30 and has supported SSM for quite a while. Also Cannabis numbers are off the roof. It's def a combo of turnout dynamics and economic issues which keep the state close.

This is an underappreciated advantage Cortez Masto has in her race again Laxalt.  Nevada is a strongly pro-choice state.  Dobbs is very unpopular.  Some polling has suggested for Nevada voters, abortion is the second-most important issue after the economy.  This gives Cortez Masto a big stick to swing against Laxalt.  Post Dobbs, the optics of a forced birth Republican man running against a pro-choice Democratic woman are very bad for the GOP in Nevada.

It's why I still have Nevada as leaning D. LGBT and abortion issues are toxic for the GOP there. It'ss gonna be a 2 or 3 point race either way tho.

While I agree most social issues heavily favor Dems in NV, what about the economy where polling has been brutal for Dems in NV? I think a lot of this form understate how much COVID lockdowns and restrictions really harmed Las Vegas's economy specifically.

For your overall point to hold water, polling on the economy needs to be worse for Dems than it historically was pre-COVID, and the tourism economy needs to still be doing significantly worse than it was pre-COVID.

From listening to Nate Silver's late-2021 commentary on the 538 podcast and having visited Vegas earlier this year, I haven't gotten the impression that the situation is as bad as it was during 2020 outside of inflation and gas prices.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nevada overall is very socially liberal compared to it's topline partisanship on most social issues. For instance, it's like pro-choice + 30 and has supported SSM for quite a while. Also Cannabis numbers are off the roof. It's def a combo of turnout dynamics and economic issues which keep the state close.

This is an underappreciated advantage Cortez Masto has in her race again Laxalt.  Nevada is a strongly pro-choice state.  Dobbs is very unpopular.  Some polling has suggested for Nevada voters, abortion is the second-most important issue after the economy.  This gives Cortez Masto a big stick to swing against Laxalt.  Post Dobbs, the optics of a forced birth Republican man running against a pro-choice Democratic woman are very bad for the GOP in Nevada.

It's why I still have Nevada as leaning D. LGBT and abortion issues are toxic for the GOP there. It'ss gonna be a 2 or 3 point race either way tho.

While I agree most social issues heavily favor Dems in NV, what about the economy where polling has been brutal for Dems in NV? I think a lot of this form understate how much COVID lockdowns and restrictions really harmed Las Vegas's economy specifically.

For your overall point to hold water, polling on the economy needs to be worse for Dems than it historically was pre-COVID, and the tourism economy needs to still be doing significantly worse than it was pre-COVID.

From listening to Nate Silver's late-2021 commentary on the 538 podcast and having visited Vegas earlier this year, I haven't gotten the impression that the situation is as bad as it was during 2020 outside of inflation and gas prices.

Fair enough, I don't really know what the polling was like pre-covid. One question I have is the Las Vegas area as a whole seems relatively dense but how walkable is it actually? In NYC for instance, a lot of folks don't own and don't need cars meaning we've been far less affected by high gas prices (and no the subway doesn't run on gas lol). Is not owning a car normal in Las Vegas?

[cg41386]

^I believe it's sprawly, like most Sun Belt cities. I would also imagine with the mostly hot weather, people would want an air conditioned car often.

[ProgressiveModerate]

^I believe it's sprawly, like most Sun Belt cities. I would also imagine with the mostly hot weather, people would want an air conditioned car often.

According to the 2020 census, it's slightly denser than cities like Pheonix, Houston, or Dallas, likely because it's geographically confined.

[cg41386]

^I believe it's sprawly, like most Sun Belt cities. I would also imagine with the mostly hot weather, people would want an air conditioned car often.

According to the 2020 census, it's slightly denser than cities like Pheonix, Houston, or Dallas, likely because it's geographically confined.

Actually, I just realized, the Vegas area is kind of interesting in that the casinos aren't actually within the city limits. They are mostly in an unincorporated area called Paradise.

[cg41386]

But I would imagine that most residents would need a car in LV. Many of the residential areas are well outside of the major business areas.

[Skill and Chance]

There is now polling showing non-college Hispanics voting like the WWC and some special election results from demographically similar areas in other states that back this up.  That's game over for Nevada Dems if it actually happens. 

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Why are people worried about blue wall states were gonna win them the red walk states are gonna determine the H I wouldn't be concerned about them Biden is near or at 50% just like last time and we are gonna win the blue wall map it's OH, NC and FL Rs need to be worried about because those are the first swing states up and NV is last, especially FL and NC states are the very first ones up then it's pA, NH and then battleground OH, WI and IL and then it's TX

That's why I put it on my map as wave insurance FL, NC and OH due to the fact I will be scoreboard watching anyways , it will be called upsets if we win any one of those, that's why Users making R nut maps may be wrong especially on NC or OH if they come in for D's, FL is tougher due to DeSantis.

Johnson is winning in WI not because of him, it's because of Gerrymandering and I am not that concerned about Barnes or Evers winning because they beat Scott Walker and Kleefisch Barnes and Evers under heavy redistricting and Early voting is just underway, that should remind users that stop looking at polls so deeply it's a 303 map with wave insurance , because Fetterman, Shapiro, Whitmer, Kelly and Hobbs are substantially leading

If it wasn't a blue wall map none of them would be leading like Whitmer 51/39 or Shapiro 55(39 it would be a lot closer

[OSR stands with Israel]

From what I understand Nevada's demography is an awful fit for the Democratic party, and if it weren't for a well-built party machine it'd probably be whacko Trumpland.

In some ways kinda like Iowa 2014 where Iowa had been a state that had been pretty hard for the GOP to win for a while despite unfavorable Demographics for the Democrats but then in 2014 the GOP made huge gains and since then has transformed from being viewed as an Obama style liberal state to a Trumpist state.

[Benjamin Frank]

I was going to start a new thread on this, but since it's partly 'gotcha' from me, and since it's about a Nevada Congressional candidate, I figured it fits here better.

I gather the Republican 3rd district candidate, April Becker, is something of a star candidate. She is a high profile 'super lawyer' and narrowly lost a state senate race in 2020 with 49.5% of the vote.

This is an example of when one not thought out talking point contradicts another.
On the one hand, Becker argues:

"Every department and program should have to show some return on the investment Congress gives them. Instead, we take their previous budget and add to it, never questioning its utility or the difference it makes. Ending this practice and engaging in zero-based budgeting will help curtail spending."
https://voteaprilbecker.com/issue/determining-our-priorities/

To be fair, zero based budgeting isn't a common talking point, at least not anymore. There are strengths and weaknesses to the idea, but the main problem doing this with the Federal budget is that it's an enormous process. The Clinton Administration did a line by line zero based budgeting exercise as part of the 1993 budget.  

My understanding is that there is an ongoing federal zero based budgeting process with different departments every year that defunds every organization in that department and requires them to justify their spending and looks at alternatives to that funding.

On the other hand, Becker also states:
I support our police and first responders and will never accept support from an organization that seeks to defund our police.
https://voteaprilbecker.com/issue/the-constitution-and-rule-of-law/

I find it hard to believe that April Becker doesn't actually understand that zero based budgeting involves defunding every organization every year and requiring them to justify their spending and looking at alternatives for that spending, for instance 'defunding the police.'

[Torie]

If there is adequate time, and often there isn't, to independently verify the efficiency of departments and what they are doing, rather than take their word for it, while it is true that you start from zero, the odds that a department will get zero tend to be zero. So while one may technically "defund" the police by starting at zero, that isn't really in play.

One thing is that if a mayor or someone starts upsetting the apple cart, the odds are good that the employee staff will try to undermine that mayor where ever possible. So it is a tough balancing act. My impression is that typically municipalities at the top are run by press releases.

[Benjamin Frank]

If there is adequate time, and often there isn't, to independently verify the efficiency of departments and what they are doing, rather than take their word for it, while it is true that you start from zero, the odds that a department will get zero tend to be zero. So while one may technically "defund" the police by starting at zero, that isn't really in play.

One thing is that if a mayor or someone starts upsetting the apple cart, the odds are good that the employee staff will try to undermine that mayor where ever possible. So it is a tough balancing act. My impression is that typically municipalities at the top are run by press releases.

Oh sure, obviously part of the issue is that 'defund the police' was a phrase used by many individuals and organizations that each may have had slightly different meanings. But if you look at, for example, Minneapolis which was where this started, the city council advocates for defunding the police were referring to zero based budgeting, and reallocating some police resources, not for literally doing away with all police officers. Only the most fringe organizations meant that along with, for instance, Republicans who want to literally do away with the FBI.

[Torie]

If there is adequate time, and often there isn't, to independently verify the efficiency of departments and what they are doing, rather than take their word for it, while it is true that you start from zero, the odds that a department will get zero tend to be zero. So while one may technically "defund" the police by starting at zero, that isn't really in play.

One thing is that if a mayor or someone starts upsetting the apple cart, the odds are good that the employee staff will try to undermine that mayor where ever possible. So it is a tough balancing act. My impression is that typically municipalities at the top are run by press releases.

Oh sure, obviously part of the issue is that 'defund the police' was a phrase used by many individuals and organizations that each may have had slightly different meanings. But if you look at, for example, Minneapolis which was where this started, the city council advocates for defunding the police were referring to zero based budgeting, and reallocating some police resources, not for literally doing away with all police officers. Only the most fringe organizations meant that along with, for instance, Republicans who want to literally do away with the FBI.

Yes, and we have a term for that - demagoguery. The majority of attack political ads by the way fit into that category, as you may have noticed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

From what I understand Nevada's demography is an awful fit for the Democratic party, and if it weren't for a well-built party machine it'd probably be whacko Trumpland.

In some ways kinda like Iowa 2014 where Iowa had been a state that had been pretty hard for the GOP to win for a while despite unfavorable Demographics for the Democrats but then in 2014 the GOP made huge gains and since then has transformed from being viewed as an Obama style liberal state to a Trumpist state.

The biggest similarity between IA (2014-2020) and NV (today) seems to be that both states tend to bring out the most irrational, purely emotional takes in people and that it’s not even possible to debate opinions because they are so entrenched. I still vividly remember how far people on this forum would go at that time to refute the idea that Iowa was trending Republican (the infamous "Ernst only won because of low turnout", "three districts", and "IA is a Trump state, not a Republican state" memes being only three of many examples here). I could see a similar thing happening here, even if Laxalt/Lombardo win (somewhat) comfortably and Republicans not only sweep most of the other competitive races but also outperform the polls.

Maybe we’ll soon get as many NV threads as VA/IA threads!

Of all the swing state Senate races, I think Nevada has the potential to be most unexpectedly lopsided in either direction do to it's relatively small size and dominance by a single metro. One could argue that relative homogeneity was what allowed Iowa to swing so hard right so fast; there really wasn't much to cancel out GOP gains throughout the state.

Some may argue that Las Vegas's extreme diversity helps to ground the state politically and make it less prone to wild swings, however, I disagree since in the case of Las Vegas, you see a lot of blending between racial communities and we've already seen cases where Las Vegas has been able to universally shift hard left or right, such as 2008.

As for Demographics, it can be made into an awful fit for either party depending upon how you look at it, unlike IA which nowadays has pretty objectively terrible demographics for Ds. In Nevada, the relatively low educational attainment and lack and basically any liberal white communities is bad for Ds. However, on the flip, Nevada is a majority-minority state where like 80% of the population lives in an urvasn or suburban community, which is bad for Rs. In 2020, we saw education early become a more defining line in our politics so if that continues, Ds are in real trouble. However, if say the urban-rural divide continues to grow, Rs are in real trouble.