UK General Discussion: Rishecession (user search)
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  UK General Discussion: Rishecession (search mode)
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Author Topic: UK General Discussion: Rishecession  (Read 224040 times)
Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« on: September 06, 2022, 10:01:29 AM »

I, for one, feel represented by this government. We clumsy women matter too.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2022, 05:39:15 PM »




This sounds good but also I swear I remember Ed Miliband getting made fun of for proposing exactly this back in like 2015?
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2022, 06:56:37 AM »

Liz Truss has apparently been taking economics classes at the Nicolas Maduro school of magical thinking. Very good.
Love to crash the country into the wall for the sake of getting a sugar rush from implementing the IEA wish list. Famously the 'let the cadre in charge write whichever policies they want, with no care as to whether anyone likely to vote for you will benefit or whether it even make sense all together' approach worked out great at the ballot box for Labour in 2019, too.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2022, 01:08:10 PM »

As an aside, I don't think there's ever been a Conference of a major British political party quite like this. Even the really bad Labour Conferences - even 2019, even more in the 1970s and 80s than I'd care to mention; yes, even the one where Trade Union General Secretaries accused each other of being JACKELS from the podium, live on on national television - were not this bad. This is a shitshow for All Time.

I guess the difference is that terrible Labour conventions are normally done from opposition, when nothing really matters anyway. Far more of a spectacle if we see this display from the actual governing party - nobody can look at this and not see a party totally going off the rails.
The way the Tories have suddenly turned into a complete gaggle of everyone seeking their five minutes by trying to pose as Independent Common Sense Champions as the media whoops and cheers the second they stopped having a leader they respected honestly really reminds me of the PLP in 2019.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2022, 03:10:42 PM »

The Times (Shipman) reporting that Graham Brady isn't inclined to allow a 1922 rule change permitting a VoNC in Truss' first 12 months unless the rebels number half of the parliamentary party, a figure currently equating to 178 MPs.
Quote
In an astonishing attack on Gove’s character, a friend of Truss added: “Michael is troubled and has never found his place in the sun. There is something deeply troubling about the darkness inside him. It grips him and it takes over.
“It corrupts his soul. The more he plots, the more baggage he collects and the more conflicted he then becomes about who and what he is. His answer to everything is more tax, more salami slicing, more failed economics. The Tory party has rejected him.”

actually cackled
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2022, 01:04:51 PM »

A scam.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2022, 07:01:08 PM »

Oh dear, oh dear. So, now it's pensions. Seriously, doesn't she have advisers or spin doctors in her office? Liz, take a cue from Portugal's Costa: Sell pensions cuts by spinning them as "pension rises", it's not that difficult. Wink
It's quite something, isn't it? The Triple-Lock u-turn has even managed to rile up the Express (think the Daily Mail but with less subtly, a total devotion to whoever's currently running the Conservative Party, and read entirely by angry pensioners), which breaks it's month-long trend of propping up Truss as a defiant, noble libertarian leader, to express shock and horror that it's audience will be among those affected by the Hunt cuts.
It's like Fox News turning around and accussing Trump of being callous and heartless.

Famously shooting his own voter base in the head went great for Nick Clegg. I'm sure they'll be as unrepentant about it as well even after if they do go below 100 seats.

Some Scotland-specific polling tonight:
If this is close to accurate, Labour is on track for their best result here since 2010, with at least 16 Scottish, based on universal swing, and not taking tactical voting (which will likely inflate that total) into account:
snip
but cybernat twitter told me queen nicola would slay forever
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2022, 09:07:12 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2022, 09:10:47 AM by Real clumsy women representation has never been tried »

Worth noting that the recent Scotland poll was commissioned by Alba. Who inserted themselves as a prompted choice.

In terms of flow of the vote from the five recent published polls, rather than direct swing, the SNP and Labour have the same retention rate of 86% and flow to each other of 9%. Numerically there are more SNP to Labour switchers as there are more SNP voters to start with. A direct flow from Tory to Labour (25%) disproportionally would advantage Labour more in seats where they are in third or even fourth.

So based on that model, the only seats Labour win are Kirkcaldy and East Lothian (currently Alba held) and the SNP take every seat from the Tories.
The problem with reifying these mid-term figures to that extent is that it requires you to take seriously the idea that Labour is on track to poll around 30% across Scotland, which is great by current standards but still historically poor, but also possibly get its best ever results in Banff and Buchan or Berwickshire. It's possible, I guess, I just wouldn't bet on it. It's still the Labour Party, for better or worse.

It's probably better to treat these in an impressionistic way for now. Pissed-off Tory voters are currently flocking to Labour everywhere but it's doubtful all of them will stick around. Some will go back, some might find the Lib Dems friendlier, some will stay home, a few may even decide they like Nicola Sturgeon after all. What anyone smart in SLab will actually be hoping for is that the sense that Labour is a viable alternative again and that the Tories are on the ropes will get more marginal SNP voters to switch or just not bother coming out. It's definitely not happening yet and it may not actually happen at all (I'm not in Scotland anymore so I have even less of an idea of how the 'fight the next election as a de facto referendum' play might work out than usual), but it did only start to happen in 2017 in roughly the last two weeks of the campaign.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2022, 12:26:22 PM »

GRANT SHAPPS WHAT
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2022, 07:58:38 AM »

Real clumsy women representation has never been tried.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2022, 07:16:55 AM »

Chris Matheson, Labour MP for the City of Chester has resigned, following the ruling of an ethics committee, recommending he be suspended from the Commons for a month.
Not to overweight my instincts here, but there was always something... off there.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2022, 07:52:30 AM »

Any idea what this is about?



It would have been a big gamble for Wallace, put it that way.
How shocking that this guy might be a bit impulsive at times.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2023, 05:09:17 PM »

Interestingly for Labour, this shows that if they can get momentum into the campaign and overcome the 17/19 tactical calculus then a whole host more seats could be in play - East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh SW, Stirling, the Ayrshire seats.
On the one hand, Labour's 2019 result in East Ren was absolutely abysmal, but on the other, if there's any seat where Starmer will go down infinitely better than Corbyn, it's there. And Labour did improve slightly there in the local elections.
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