UK General Discussion: Rishecession
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #400 on: September 26, 2022, 01:45:05 PM »

The Telegraph is such a frustrating paper - competent at investigative journalism, and basically c**p at most other stuff.

It's a shame: it used to be a paper with a firm and very right-wing editorial line but with high quality journalism across the board (including very good sports coverage) so perfectly readable even if you strongly disagreed with its politics, but, well, long ago and far away now. It's an extreme example, but the general pattern holds across our newspapers.

That was always the classic excuse for anyone a bit embarrassed by what other people might think of their political leanings when they saw them reading it: “I only buy it for the cricket!”

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mileslunn
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« Reply #401 on: September 26, 2022, 01:46:22 PM »

Other than dogmatic ideological belief in supply side economics, I don't get the political rationale of the budget?  Yes I get she thinks economy will take off and win on that, but real world evidence is so overwhelming that you have to blind to reality to think otherwise.  Its not a new idea that has never been tried elsewhere even if not tried in UK in last 30 years.  

I mean winning votes from top 1% isn't nearly enough to win an election and I don't think most Brits are hostile to top 1%, but I don't think most either think they are in most need of help right at this moment.  Usually governments when they try something like this have lots of economic advisors who have a good grasp on risks and many politicians who propose risky ideas are dissuaded by advisors not to go there.  Its why UK didn't go for a hard Brexit even though a lot of Tories wanted that as probably all advisors told them flat out what would happen would be a disaster.
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YL
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« Reply #402 on: September 26, 2022, 03:14:40 PM »

Some conservation charities are really not happy with the Government


(NB the RSPB has over a million members.)
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #403 on: September 26, 2022, 04:24:53 PM »

New Royal Cypher revealed

This is what will appear on all the police cap badges, government documents, new post boxes etc. Notably it's a reversion to the 1901-1953 Tudor Crown - Elizabeth's used St Edward's Crown.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #404 on: September 26, 2022, 04:37:25 PM »

Some conservation charities are really not happy with the Government


(NB the RSPB has over a million members.)

It seems budget was ideologically driven and to heck with any opposition or impacts.  On one hand if it works, they will look like geniuses.  Still history is not on their side.  While such budgets haven't been tried in UK for a long time, US has plenty of more recent examples and at best they were neutral, at worst negative.  Yougov now has poll at 45% Labour to 28% Conservative. 

Be interesting how this plays out.  I don't think Truss will walk anything back and MPs don't want to remove her so quickly but if Labour maintains double digit lead through next year, I don't know how she survives.  Most want to hold their seats.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #405 on: September 26, 2022, 05:57:18 PM »

The Telegraph is such a frustrating paper - competent at investigative journalism, and basically c**p at most other stuff.
It's a shame: it used to be a paper with a firm and very right-wing editorial line but with high quality journalism across the board (including very good sports coverage) so perfectly readable even if you strongly disagreed with its politics, but, well, long ago and far away now. It's an extreme example, but the general pattern holds across our newspapers.
The Mail is genuinely mad these days (was it ever not?), see todays front page on the government induced sterling crisis:


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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #406 on: September 26, 2022, 08:35:18 PM »

Wow. IMF bailouts are usually for third world countries.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #407 on: September 26, 2022, 10:52:12 PM »

New Royal Cypher revealed

This is what will appear on all the police cap badges, government documents, new post boxes etc. Notably it's a reversion to the 1901-1953 Tudor Crown - Elizabeth's used St Edward's Crown.

Colorado Rockies logo got an upgrade
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mileslunn
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« Reply #408 on: September 26, 2022, 10:56:29 PM »

Wow. IMF bailouts are usually for third world countries.

UK won't require one.  Worst case scenario is ends up like Canada in mid 90s where government required a heavy austerity program to turn things around.  Off course not sure Labour willing to do that but may have no choice and probably leads to being one term wonder if forced to.
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afleitch
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« Reply #409 on: September 27, 2022, 02:51:04 AM »

YouGov have given Labour it's largest lead (17pts) in any poll since the firm was founded in 2001.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #410 on: September 27, 2022, 02:54:35 AM »

The Mail is genuinely mad these days (was it ever not?), see todays front page on the government induced sterling crisis

It's taken a real turn towards the actively delusional since Dacre's mob Took Back Control of the paper in a palace coup last autumn.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #411 on: September 27, 2022, 05:40:13 AM »

Wow. IMF bailouts are usually for third world countries.

UK won't require one.  Worst case scenario is ends up like Canada in mid 90s where government required a heavy austerity program to turn things around.  Off course not sure Labour willing to do that but may have no choice and probably leads to being one term wonder if forced to.

There was very likely less capacity to tax the better off in 1990s Canada than in the UK post-Truss.

(and the Liberals did of course get re-elected, for a few more elections at that)
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Estrella
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« Reply #412 on: September 27, 2022, 05:46:44 AM »

The Telegraph is such a frustrating paper - competent at investigative journalism, and basically c**p at most other stuff.
It's a shame: it used to be a paper with a firm and very right-wing editorial line but with high quality journalism across the board (including very good sports coverage) so perfectly readable even if you strongly disagreed with its politics, but, well, long ago and far away now. It's an extreme example, but the general pattern holds across our newspapers.
The Mail is genuinely mad these days (was it ever not?), see todays front page on the government induced sterling crisis:




Any mention of Black Wednesday and (((Soros)))?
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American2020
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« Reply #413 on: September 27, 2022, 08:13:40 AM »

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Torrain
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« Reply #414 on: September 27, 2022, 09:59:37 AM »

Polling over the past few days has been quite something. Since the weekend, we've had polls from Redfield & Wilton, Deltapoll and YouGov, who poll weekly or biweekly. All have Labour at 44-45% and the Tories on 28-31%. Redfield's 13% lead is the largest they've recorded for Labour, as is YouGov's 17% lead.

This parliament has been an odd one for polling. A post-election honeymoon for the Tories built into a historic lead, thanks to a COVID bump. That lead dissolved after their first round of PPE contract scandals, and the first whispers of partygate around Christmas 2020. They recovered as the vaccine programme got underway (and benefitted as Labour had a terrible summer with the Hartlepool by-election), but the Matt Hancock debacle heralded a polling decline only sped-up by the resurgence of partygate.

The Tories haven't recovered the lead since last Christmas, and any hopes for a new-PM bounce seem to have evaporated. Short of an out-of-nowhere conference bump, it looks like we're settling into an extended period with Labour in the lead.
It's big turn-around compared to polling in the last few cycles. Corbyn never took a consistent lead over the Tories (basically trailing throughout his leadership), and while Milliband led in the aggregate for much of the coalition years, his leads were often only a few points over the Tories, and melted away during the election.

I guess it could be a mirage - Kinnock soared ahead as Thatcher's premiership collapsed, falling back to parity with the Conservatives as Major established himself. But Major was elected to steady the ship - Truss was elected to "run fast and break things". And like all PMs, Truss is likely to become less popular over time, not more.
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Torrain
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« Reply #415 on: September 27, 2022, 10:11:51 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2022, 10:23:41 AM by Torrain »

In less serious news, I'd like to bring you all what is perhaps the worst hot-take of the week. You've heard Tories blame poor economic performance on "the last Labour government". But are you ready for pundits blaming *drumroll* the next Labour government?

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TheTide
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« Reply #416 on: September 27, 2022, 10:32:34 AM »

Polling over the past few days has been quite something. Since the weekend, we've had polls from Redfield & Wilton, Deltapoll and YouGov, who poll weekly or biweekly. All have Labour at 44-45% and the Tories on 28-31%. Redfield's 13% lead is the largest they've recorded for Labour, as is YouGov's 17% lead.

This parliament has been an odd one for polling. A post-election honeymoon for the Tories built into a historic lead, thanks to a COVID bump. That lead dissolved after their first round of PPE contract scandals, and the first whispers of partygate around Christmas 2020. They recovered as the vaccine programme got underway (and benefitted as Labour had a terrible summer with the Hartlepool by-election), but the Matt Hancock debacle heralded a polling decline only sped-up by the resurgence of partygate.

The Tories haven't recovered the lead since last Christmas, and any hopes for a new-PM bounce seem to have evaporated. Short of an out-of-nowhere conference bump, it looks like we're settling into an extended period with Labour in the lead.
It's big turn-around compared to polling in the last few cycles. Corbyn never took a consistent lead over the Tories (basically trailing throughout his leadership), and while Milliband led in the aggregate for much of the coalition years, his leads were often only a few points over the Tories, and melted away during the election.

I guess it could be a mirage - Kinnock soared ahead as Thatcher's premiership collapsed, falling back to parity with the Conservatives as Major established himself. But Major was elected to steady the ship - Truss was elected to "run fast and break things". And like all PMs, Truss is likely to become less popular over time, not more.

Labour will get the fabled 20 point lead on the same day that the pound falls below the US dollar in value. A fun day on Twitter.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #417 on: September 27, 2022, 11:05:07 AM »

Polling over the past few days has been quite something. Since the weekend, we've had polls from Redfield & Wilton, Deltapoll and YouGov, who poll weekly or biweekly. All have Labour at 44-45% and the Tories on 28-31%. Redfield's 13% lead is the largest they've recorded for Labour, as is YouGov's 17% lead.

This parliament has been an odd one for polling. A post-election honeymoon for the Tories built into a historic lead, thanks to a COVID bump. That lead dissolved after their first round of PPE contract scandals, and the first whispers of partygate around Christmas 2020. They recovered as the vaccine programme got underway (and benefitted as Labour had a terrible summer with the Hartlepool by-election), but the Matt Hancock debacle heralded a polling decline only sped-up by the resurgence of partygate.

The Tories haven't recovered the lead since last Christmas, and any hopes for a new-PM bounce seem to have evaporated. Short of an out-of-nowhere conference bump, it looks like we're settling into an extended period with Labour in the lead.
It's big turn-around compared to polling in the last few cycles. Corbyn never took a consistent lead over the Tories (basically trailing throughout his leadership), and while Milliband led in the aggregate for much of the coalition years, his leads were often only a few points over the Tories, and melted away during the election.

I guess it could be a mirage - Kinnock soared ahead as Thatcher's premiership collapsed, falling back to parity with the Conservatives as Major established himself. But Major was elected to steady the ship - Truss was elected to "run fast and break things". And like all PMs, Truss is likely to become less popular over time, not more.

Labour will get the fabled 20 point lead on the same day that the pound falls below the US dollar in value. A fun day on Twitter.

Although the whole "any other leader would be" meme has been beat senseless already.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #418 on: September 27, 2022, 01:05:08 PM »

Wow. IMF bailouts are usually for third world countries.

UK won't require one.  Worst case scenario is ends up like Canada in mid 90s where government required a heavy austerity program to turn things around.  Off course not sure Labour willing to do that but may have no choice and probably leads to being one term wonder if forced to.

There was very likely less capacity to tax the better off in 1990s Canada than in the UK post-Truss.

(and the Liberals did of course get re-elected, for a few more elections at that)

Liberals didn't actually raise income taxes, mostly spending cuts but taxes did go up as brackets were frozen for seven years so lots of people moved into higher brackets thus paying more.  That was though compensated for after balanced budget.  Today top rates are actually higher than mid 90s, but mostly due to concerns of inequality not deficits as rates for middle and lower income much lower.

Big reason for no big tax hikes was dollar was quite low so brain drain to US already a problem and too big a tax convergence would have made it worse.  Probably due to Trump factor, Canadians moving to US much less so worries about tax divergence less than 90s.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #419 on: September 27, 2022, 01:06:55 PM »

I wonder if polling will impact whether Scotland drops their additional rate or not?  Lots calling for Scotland to drop theirs to avoid losing many high income.  But if it is widely expected Labour will win next election and they've already promised to reverse it, I doubt someone willing to spend cost to move for only 2 years of lower taxes.

If this numbers continue and big if, we could see a few upsets.  Do wonder though if Boris will stay on or step down as a by-election in his constituency would be telling.  Pretty sure Labour would gain it today.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #420 on: September 27, 2022, 01:11:53 PM »

Polling over the past few days has been quite something. Since the weekend, we've had polls from Redfield & Wilton, Deltapoll and YouGov, who poll weekly or biweekly. All have Labour at 44-45% and the Tories on 28-31%. Redfield's 13% lead is the largest they've recorded for Labour, as is YouGov's 17% lead.

This parliament has been an odd one for polling. A post-election honeymoon for the Tories built into a historic lead, thanks to a COVID bump. That lead dissolved after their first round of PPE contract scandals, and the first whispers of partygate around Christmas 2020. They recovered as the vaccine programme got underway (and benefitted as Labour had a terrible summer with the Hartlepool by-election), but the Matt Hancock debacle heralded a polling decline only sped-up by the resurgence of partygate.

The Tories haven't recovered the lead since last Christmas, and any hopes for a new-PM bounce seem to have evaporated. Short of an out-of-nowhere conference bump, it looks like we're settling into an extended period with Labour in the lead.
It's big turn-around compared to polling in the last few cycles. Corbyn never took a consistent lead over the Tories (basically trailing throughout his leadership), and while Milliband led in the aggregate for much of the coalition years, his leads were often only a few points over the Tories, and melted away during the election.

I guess it could be a mirage - Kinnock soared ahead as Thatcher's premiership collapsed, falling back to parity with the Conservatives as Major established himself. But Major was elected to steady the ship - Truss was elected to "run fast and break things". And like all PMs, Truss is likely to become less popular over time, not more.

That's not quite true, Labour were ahead from the 2017 GE to early 2018 (though never massively)

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mileslunn
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« Reply #421 on: September 27, 2022, 01:48:40 PM »

Polling over the past few days has been quite something. Since the weekend, we've had polls from Redfield & Wilton, Deltapoll and YouGov, who poll weekly or biweekly. All have Labour at 44-45% and the Tories on 28-31%. Redfield's 13% lead is the largest they've recorded for Labour, as is YouGov's 17% lead.

This parliament has been an odd one for polling. A post-election honeymoon for the Tories built into a historic lead, thanks to a COVID bump. That lead dissolved after their first round of PPE contract scandals, and the first whispers of partygate around Christmas 2020. They recovered as the vaccine programme got underway (and benefitted as Labour had a terrible summer with the Hartlepool by-election), but the Matt Hancock debacle heralded a polling decline only sped-up by the resurgence of partygate.

The Tories haven't recovered the lead since last Christmas, and any hopes for a new-PM bounce seem to have evaporated. Short of an out-of-nowhere conference bump, it looks like we're settling into an extended period with Labour in the lead.
It's big turn-around compared to polling in the last few cycles. Corbyn never took a consistent lead over the Tories (basically trailing throughout his leadership), and while Milliband led in the aggregate for much of the coalition years, his leads were often only a few points over the Tories, and melted away during the election.

I guess it could be a mirage - Kinnock soared ahead as Thatcher's premiership collapsed, falling back to parity with the Conservatives as Major established himself. But Major was elected to steady the ship - Truss was elected to "run fast and break things". And like all PMs, Truss is likely to become less popular over time, not more.

That's not quite true, Labour were ahead from the 2017 GE to early 2018 (though never massively)



Tories also when Corbyn was leader never went below 38%.  By contrast most polls put them in low 30s and a few even below 30%.  Would be shocked if they get under 30% but getting less than 1 in 3 voters is pretty bad for Tories
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Torrain
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« Reply #422 on: September 27, 2022, 05:24:02 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2022, 05:32:50 PM by Torrain »

The IMF have taken the rare step of issuing a written intervention - which even reporters at the  BBC have described as “a humiliation”.
Quote
We are closely monitoring recent economic developments in the UK and are engaged with the authorities. We understand that the sizable fiscal package announced aims at helping families and businesses deal with the energy shock and at boosting growth via tax cuts and supply measures. However, given elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including the UK, we do not recommend large and untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important that fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy. Furthermore, the nature of the UK measures will likely increase inequality. The November 23 budget will present an early opportunity for the UK government to consider ways to provide support that is more targeted and reevaluate the tax measures, especially those that benefit high income earners.

In response, the Treasury released the following:
Quote
"We have acted at speed to protect households and businesses through this winter and the next, following the unprecedented energy price rise caused by Putin's illegal actions in Ukraine. Our Energy Price Guarantee saves households £1.000 on average and we're halving business energy bills through the Energy Bill Relief Scheme.

"We are focused on growing the economy to raise living standards for everyone and the Chancellor has announced he will publish his Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on 23 November which will set out further details on the government's fiscal rules, including ensuring that debt falls as a share of GDP in the medium term.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #423 on: September 27, 2022, 06:03:09 PM »

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mileslunn
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« Reply #424 on: September 27, 2022, 08:09:26 PM »

I presume Labour will introduce an amendment to restore additional rate of 45% and bring back cap on banker's bonus so interested if any Tories will break ranks on this.  Tough spot if a Red wall one as vote for, risk having whip removed but vote against and will have huge target painted on back next election.  There are some parts of country where probably this won't be a huge issue.  If any a fairly posh constituency, people may not like it, but pushback will be less.  In Red Wall, I cannot see these two going over well.

My guess is not many, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few although if threat of whip being removed probably not many.  If Tories allow MPs to break ranks and doubt they will could be enough to sink both and maybe with backlash and horrible polling that is only way to climb down on those, but from what I know of Truss, she seems like type who doubles down no matter how unpopular.
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