UK General Discussion: Cabinet Rishuffle

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YL:
Quote from: Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on June 08, 2023, 02:02:42 AM

Quote from: YL on June 08, 2023, 01:59:44 AM

Caroline Lucas is standing down as MP for Brighton Pavilion at the next election.  This is an interesting one: the seat had become essentially safe for her, but how well a new Green candidate will be able to do at inheriting her vote must be a bit up in the air.  FWIW my assumption is that if the Greens make a reasonable choice they will probably hold it, but we will see.

Ian Blackford, the SNP's former Westminster leader, has also recently announced his retirement as an MP at the next election.


Is a Conservative victory out of the question here?



Brighton Pavilion?  LOL.

Blackford's seat?  His retirement just makes the rearrangement of SNP seats following the boundary changes simpler; his seat is being split between Inverness-shire & Wester Ross and Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross so it leaves Drew Hendry with a clear run at the former.  The Tories have some support up there but I don't think it's enough to threaten to win.

Blair:
She deserves a lot more credit than she gets politically; she is a very effective politician and I think the Greens would have done better if she had stayed leader in 2015 but then it would have been hard to do three jobs well.

The size of her majority, especially in 2017, is a sign of her own strong brand- you would imagine a strong Green candidate who runs with every leaflet having an endorsement from CL would do well and would carry a large part of that vote over; but equally itís hard to tell especially with Labour having a relatively strong performance in Brighton lately.

JimJamUK:
Quote from: Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on June 08, 2023, 02:02:42 AM

Quote from: YL on June 08, 2023, 01:59:44 AM

Caroline Lucas is standing down as MP for Brighton Pavilion at the next election.  This is an interesting one: the seat had become essentially safe for her, but how well a new Green candidate will be able to do at inheriting her vote must be a bit up in the air.  FWIW my assumption is that if the Greens make a reasonable choice they will probably hold it, but we will see.

Ian Blackford, the SNP's former Westminster leader, has also recently announced his retirement as an MP at the next election.


Is a Conservative victory out of the question here?


Blackford had a 30% lead over the Conservatives so no (the opposition vote is naturally very split there, only a big tactical vote for the Lib Demí could possibly challenge the SNP).

Brighton Pavilion is a lot more interesting. Lucas has essentially held on as a quasi-independent, with her vote share wildly out of line with how the Greens were doing in their other target seats. Brighton Pavilion is genuinely one of the naturally Greenest seats in Britain, but the party has been in the low single digits nationally for the past couple of elections so Ďshouldnítí having been winning it. I imagine the Greens will have a lot of applicants, and itís unclear whether theyíd want a competent outsider or a potentially tainted local (the Greens were just decimated after running the council, again). There might be Conservative history in the seat, but itís clear that Labour should throw the kitchen sink at it in order to distract the Greens from elsewhere and ideally deprive them of elected Parliamentary representation once again.

Coldstream:
I canít imagine Carla Denyer is happy that rather than them throw everything at Bristol Central they are now being forced to defend Brighton Pavillion too.

Personally if I was the Greens Iíd pick Alex Phillips, I met her when she was an MEP and she seemed pretty good - I thought after meeting her that sheíd be Lucasís successor - but Iím not sure if their massacres locally will have changed the dynamics.

TheTide:
I'm sure many people who are only light followers of politics assume/assumed that Lucas is the leader of the Green Party. It is or was a similar case with Farage and UKIP (and its various other names).

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