UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Step 1: Be Liz Truss
Step 2: See Labour are tilting towards the centre-ground
Step 3: Cede the centre-ground, with a sharp-right turn on taxation and benefits
Step 4: Be 5-10 points behind in the polls
Step 5: …
Step 6: Profit???

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Sterling is now less than 10% stronger than the US dollar.

[MillennialModerate]

Also, Truss is a disaster. Truly terrible.

I wonder if Non-right wing Scotland voters will get the message they need to vote Labour to end the Truss led Tories. Otherwise it would take a massive popular vote number to get any sort of decent majority.

Why would they?

Why would they vote Labour? Because they want to get rid of the Tories?

[afleitch]

Also, Truss is a disaster. Truly terrible.

I wonder if Non-right wing Scotland voters will get the message they need to vote Labour to end the Truss led Tories. Otherwise it would take a massive popular vote number to get any sort of decent majority.

Why would they?

Why would they vote Labour? Because they want to get rid of the Tories?

Which we've been doing in every general election for nearly 60 years.

Why would SNP voters vote Labour? Why would they prefer a Labour majority over a government that would have to rely on SNP support?

[JimJamUK]

The key difference, unfortunately, is that unlike his version of Labour they can still count on sizeable totally uncritical support from client media - and the rest may still be too timid in challenging them.

I was watching the Sky News coverage earlier. It was pretty unrelentingly negative, to the point where the ‘Labour will respond” segment was no less negative or different in substance. The client media may lap it up, but the non-partisan bits don’t seem to be.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1573351616547282944

[Pulaski]

Boris Johnson returns as leader within a year as the voice of rationality and moderation. Calling it now.

Boris Johnson makes Kevin Rudd look selfless and even-tempered. An amazing accomplishment really.

[Pulaski]

It still confuses me how a second house works in a meaningful way in a parliamentary system.

For my money, since in the majority of Westminster systems a clear majority in the lower house is the norm and lower houses often serve as basically just an electoral college, an upper house that is relatively representative (so definitely not the Lords) can assist in restricting governments to work with other parties to pass legislation, potentially protecting against the "tyranny of the majority" (not even a majority as very often governments are elected with far less than 50% of votes these days).

An alternative would be something like New Zealand where parliament is unicameral but the electoral system is set up such that outright majorities are rare (present circumstances excepted) so parties of government have to reach out or moderate their approaches to pass legislation. As someone who's far from moderate in their politics this can be personally frustrating but is probably healthier for democracies overall.

[Blair]

Boris Johnson was never fully a part of the very right wing IEA/Adam Smith set- they have now got everything they broadly want and have no real excuse if it all falls apart.

The plan seems based around the idea that there will be huge levels of growth and well the market reaction today shows that things could collapse very quickly.

Didn’t Ted Heath try this in the 1970s and then have to retreat massively?

[Blair]

What would worry me if I was a Tory is that they have no one good on the airwaves to promote this?

They’re trying to reform the British state with a bunch of D list cabinet ministers and G list junior ministers.

[JimJamUK]

What would worry me if I was a Tory is that they have no one good on the airwaves to promote this?

They’re trying to reform the British state with a bunch of D list cabinet ministers and G list junior ministers.

Case in point, the government minister on Question Time last night said he was neutral on fracking, not exactly the response you need when everyone else is slagging off the governments policies.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

What would worry me if I was a Tory is that they have no one good on the airwaves to promote this?

They’re trying to reform the British state with a bunch of D list cabinet ministers and G list junior ministers.

Shapps or Gove (yes) would have been their best bets for that, but of course they aren't in the cabinet now.

[Torrain]

It’s probably not the moment to get into the weeds on this - but I can’t imagine the House of Lords is going to be enthusiastic about Trussenomics, when it comes time to vote on this (whether that’s this package, or a full budget at a later date).

They’re not bound by the Salisbury Convention (where the Lords let most of a party’s manifesto promises pass into law without much argument), as this is basically a 180 from the  Johnson approach, and outside his 2019 platform.

They’re not exactly going to be able to block it - but I wonder whether they might become the thorn in the PM’s side, and slow-walk it.

[Blair]

It’s probably not the moment to get into the weeds on this - but I can’t imagine the House of Lords is going to be enthusiastic about Trussenomics, when it comes time to vote on this (whether that’s this package, or a full budget at a later date).

They’re not bound by the Salisbury Convention (where the Lords let most of a party’s manifesto promises pass into law without much argument), as this is basically a 180 from the  Johnson approach, and outside his 2019 platform.

They’re not exactly going to be able to block it - but I wonder whether they might become the thorn in the PM’s side, and slow-walk it.

I think the Lords can’t vote on budget resolutions thanks to some quirk from the Lloyd George era

[Cassius]

It’s probably not the moment to get into the weeds on this - but I can’t imagine the House of Lords is going to be enthusiastic about Trussenomics, when it comes time to vote on this (whether that’s this package, or a full budget at a later date).

They’re not bound by the Salisbury Convention (where the Lords let most of a party’s manifesto promises pass into law without much argument), as this is basically a 180 from the  Johnson approach, and outside his 2019 platform.

They’re not exactly going to be able to block it - but I wonder whether they might become the thorn in the PM’s side, and slow-walk it.

I think the Lords can’t vote on budget resolutions thanks to some quirk from the Lloyd George era

The Lords aren’t able to prevent money-related bills passing for more than one month.

[MaxQue]

It’s probably not the moment to get into the weeds on this - but I can’t imagine the House of Lords is going to be enthusiastic about Trussenomics, when it comes time to vote on this (whether that’s this package, or a full budget at a later date).

They’re not bound by the Salisbury Convention (where the Lords let most of a party’s manifesto promises pass into law without much argument), as this is basically a 180 from the  Johnson approach, and outside his 2019 platform.

They’re not exactly going to be able to block it - but I wonder whether they might become the thorn in the PM’s side, and slow-walk it.

I think the Lords can’t vote on budget resolutions thanks to some quirk from the Lloyd George era

It depends whether Speaker Hoyle designates it as a money bill or not. If it is, the Lords can only delay it by a month.

[Pericles]

I don't think a Boris comeback in the same parliament would be credible, it would be too embarrassing for all the MPs that turned on him and he was seriously unpopular by the end. The Sunak team are already grumbling so maybe he can win on the second try but the membership were pretty unenthusiastic about him. Mordant would have been better imo to replace Boris, even though she is a lightweight. She is in cabinet and will have more of a profile so they can bring her in as a fresh face. Ben Wallace also would give good adult in the room vibes and is well liked so far but I don't know why he didn't run this time. I said it would be like the Fourth Labour Government in NZ bringing in Mike Moore, Wallace even looks similar. The membership could get in the way and elect Badenoch though.

[mileslunn]

What happens if a Tory MP votes against budget or parts of it.  I've heard scrapping the additional rate is unpopular with some Tory MPs.  Probably not enough to stop it but if one voted it down, do they get booted out of party.

I also think a tax cut for the rich whether one thinks if a good or a bad idea, the optics and timing are absolutely horrible and comes across as very tone deaf.  If economy was booming and UK had a large surplus, probably could get away with it.  Or if it was done by cutting deductions and loopholes so revenue neutral maybe.  That being said idea of lower top rate seems to be based on idea UK top rates are uncompetitive which is false.

Most of Canada, France & Japan have top rates above 50%.  Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Belgium, Ireland (if you include PRSI), France, Austria, Portugal, parts of Spain (they are hiking taxes on rich but details not known), Israel and Japan all over 50% as well as some high taxed states in US like California and New York City.  Heck even his remarks on US, Italy and Norway were false.  Norway's top rate is 39.2% but when you include social security contributions it is 47.4% and if self employed 50.6% so just scrapping NIC hike would push below.  US is 37%, but since most states have state taxes, only in states with no state tax like Texas and Florida is UK higher then.  Italy is 43%, but has regional and municipal taxes so average is 45-47%, i.e. what UK was before. 

And even at 45%, Iceland, Norway, Netherlands, Germany, most of Spain, Italy, South Korea, and Australia, and higher taxed US states are in high 40s.  I could be wrong, but I just don't see how big tax cuts for rich is going to a vote winner.  At same time Labour has to be careful in reversing.  Previous cut from 50% to 45% Labour opposed and lost that election.  But I think Labour could easily push raising it to 45%.  Pushing to 50% might be tougher but with huge deficit might have no choice but could make 50% temporary instead of permanent.

[YL]

What happens if a Tory MP votes against budget or parts of it.  I've heard scrapping the additional rate is unpopular with some Tory MPs.  Probably not enough to stop it but if one voted it down, do they get booted out of party.

Almost certainly they get booted out, yes.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What happens if a Tory MP votes against budget or parts of it.  I've heard scrapping the additional rate is unpopular with some Tory MPs.  Probably not enough to stop it but if one voted it down, do they get booted out of party.

Almost certainly they get booted out, yes.

Oh I forgot MPs can literally be kicked out of the party/disciplined for going against the leadership on one vote.

[Conservatopia]

What happens if a Tory MP votes against budget or parts of it.  I've heard scrapping the additional rate is unpopular with some Tory MPs.  Probably not enough to stop it but if one voted it down, do they get booted out of party.

Almost certainly they get booted out, yes.

Oh I forgot MPs can literally be kicked out of the party/disciplined for going against the leadership on one vote.

It depends on what the vote is. In general however UK MPs are a lot more rebellious than US Reps and Senators.

[CumbrianLefty]

The membership could get in the way and elect Badenoch though.

Maybe that is the ultimate fate that the current Tory party deserves.

[mileslunn]

Not living in UK, but visiting there frequently, what has been public reaction to tax cuts?  I know in Canada it would be political suicide where I live and in fact we've gone in opposite direction of taxing rich more not cutting them.  US I know is mix as GOP tends to cut taxes for rich, Democrats raise them.  But I am thinking optics of dropping additional rate look horrible and unless British culture is one that admires rich and think they are big job creators I cannot see it being popular.  Be interested for those on ground what they are hearing.

And if Labour wins, I presume they would at least raise it to 45%, but would they go further and push back to 50% where it was under Brown or just back to 45%?  I am thinking latter but curious what others hearing.

[Conservatopia]

The reaction has been broadly negative, though not viscerally so. Everyone knows it's a tax cut for the rich but those one the lower bands do also benefit of course. The stamp duty cut will be beneficial to a certain demographic (of which I happen to be a part) who are trying to buy a house in an expensive area like the South West.

Labour indicated today that they would reinstate the top tax rate (45%) whilst leaving in place the Tory tax cut to the lower bands.

This is smart politics and I think the average British person would agree with Starmer's stance here.

[mileslunn]

The reaction has been broadly negative, though not viscerally so. Everyone knows it's a tax cut for the rich but those one the lower bands do also benefit of course. The stamp duty cut will be beneficial to a certain demographic (of which I happen to be a part) who are trying to buy a house in an expensive area like the South West.

Labour indicated today that they would reinstate the top tax rate (45%) whilst leaving in place the Tory tax cut to the lower bands.

This is smart politics and I think the average British person would agree with Starmer's stance here.

Yeah makes sense.  I wonder if they would go for 50% which is what they have pushed in past elections or if that is a bridge too far as it seems going to 45% would get little push back, 50% probably somewhat more although perhaps mostly in more posh areas not areas they are targeting.