2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[Gracile]

Vallas is still a slight favorite, in my view.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Vallas is still a slight favorite, in my view.

I agree, and I’m sticking to my prediction it’ll be within 2.5% either way

[Sir Mohamed]

Vallas is still a slight favorite, in my view.

I agree, and I’m sticking to my prediction it’ll be within 2.5% either way

Yup, seems fair.

My personal prediction is 51-49% for Vallas.

[Illiniwek]

I can't help but think Johnson has all the momentum. I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't pull it off in the end.

[kwabbit]

The South and West side numbers seem to be underrating Vallas. It has Vallas winning Wilson voters and getting 25% of Lightfoot voters, both of whom the poll suggest are indeed turning out, but the Vallas numbers in the South and West sides are less than Vallas first round + 1/2 Wilson first round.

[Gass3268]

Looks like Garcia's endorsement helped Johnson, he's is now winning a majority of his supporters.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/jimdaleywrites/status/1638914308779409409?s=20

Here are the full cross tabs. Victory doesn’t have the best track record, but if those Latino #s are correct, that is really impressive. Remember that Vallas was a clear second in Latino wards in the first round with Johnson far behind.

Also impressive in a historical context. The last time there was a Black/Latino coalition vs a white candidate was… Harold Washington?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

https://twitter.com/jimdaleywrites/status/1638914308779409409?s=20
Here are the full cross tabs. Victory doesn’t have the best track record, but if those Latino #s are correct, that is really impressive. Remember that Vallas was a clear second in Latino wards in the first round with Johnson far behind.

Also impressive in a historical context. The last time there was a Black/Latino coalition vs a white candidate was… Harold Washington?

The further-right candidate only winning a plurality of Latino voters is impressive in a historical context? What would be more typical cleavage for a early 21st century Chicago mayoral election?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jimdaleywrites/status/1638914308779409409?s=20
Here are the full cross tabs. Victory doesn’t have the best track record, but if those Latino #s are correct, that is really impressive. Remember that Vallas was a clear second in Latino wards in the first round with Johnson far behind.

Also impressive in a historical context. The last time there was a Black/Latino coalition vs a white candidate was… Harold Washington?

The further-right candidate only winning a plurality of Latino voters is impressive in a historical context? What would be more typical cleavage for a early 21st century Chicago mayoral election?

I wonder if the dividing line among Hispanic voters will be Mexican vs Other Hispanic Groups, Younger vs Older, or Southwest side vs West/Northwest Side. Cause there are good arguments for each of the three based on how one perceives the Chuy endorsement impacts voters.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/jimdaleywrites/status/1638914308779409409?s=20
Here are the full cross tabs. Victory doesn’t have the best track record, but if those Latino #s are correct, that is really impressive. Remember that Vallas was a clear second in Latino wards in the first round with Johnson far behind.

Also impressive in a historical context. The last time there was a Black/Latino coalition vs a white candidate was… Harold Washington?

The further-right candidate only winning a plurality of Latino voters is impressive in a historical context? What would be more typical cleavage for a early 21st century Chicago mayoral election?

Elections of the last 30 years have usually been a white/Black or white/Latino coalition. I think the last time Black and Latino voters were in a coalition against a white candidate would’ve been for Harold Washington.

Not saying they are in this race, but Latino voters do seem to be moving toward Johnson.

Ironically, it was Chuy Garcia that worked to get Latinos behind Washington at that time.

[Peeperkorn]

https://twitter.com/jimdaleywrites/status/1638914308779409409?s=20

Here are the full cross tabs. Victory doesn’t have the best track record, but if those Latino #s are correct, that is really impressive. Remember that Vallas was a clear second in Latino wards in the first round with Johnson far behind.

Also impressive in a historical context. The last time there was a Black/Latino coalition vs a white candidate was… Harold Washington?

"Latiné"...?
Well, I guess it's better than Latinx. So French and distinguished.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I don't know how particularly important this office is in Chicago but it's another endorsement for Johnson nevertheless,

https://twitter.com/Brandon4Chicago/status/1639253112631222272?s=20

Also David Orr who was Cook County clerk for almost 3 decades from 1990-2018 and originally endorsed Chuy Garcia which shows that his surrogates are falling behind Johnson which can only be good news.

https://twitter.com/Brandon4Chicago/status/1639003325759643648?s=20

[Bismarck]

Johnson has the clear momentum. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a “silent” Vallas vote though. Being a Vallas voter might not be cool but I know a lot of north siders are concerned about crime.

[Gass3268]

Johnson has the clear momentum. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a “silent” Vallas vote though. Being a Vallas voter might not be cool but I know a lot of north siders are concerned about crime.

Eh, polling was accurate with similar dynamics in New York and Los Angeles.

[Mr. Illini]

Steele and Orr are both government reform/anti-CCDP advocates. They don’t have the juice that some other big endorsements have, but still a nice get for Johnson. Probably makes me more likely to vote for him.

[Suburbia]

I am surprised that a lot of black leaders are supporting Vallas, especially Rush.....Rush is not a fan of the police, and yet, he endorses the most pro-cop mayoral candidate in a long time....

What did Rush get from this endorsement?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think the biggest concern for Johnson at this point is that he still trails in Alderman endorsements.  That could chip away a bit here and there at his AA margins.  Johnson needs to absolutely clean up with AA voters and affluent white liberals.  I’m pretty confident about the latter and he’s clearly rapidly consolidating the AA vote, but I worry it won’t be quite enough.  Hopefully, he can at least avoid getting completely blown out in the Hispanic wards.  This should be close either way and Johnson definitely has the momentum, but I’m far from sold that he’s going to do more than just give Vallas a scare (which is a shame b/c Vallas is pond scum).

[MaxQue]

I am surprised that a lot of black leaders are supporting Vallas, especially Rush.....Rush is not a fan of the police, and yet, he endorses the most pro-cop mayoral candidate in a long time....

What did Rush get from this endorsement?

It is well-known the CBC is a vessel to direct corruption.

[Green Line]

I don't think aldermanic endorsements matter very much at all.  I don't think Jesse Jackon and Kwame Raouls endorsements matter either.  Johnson is going to win the overwhelming majority of the black vote because he's the black candidate.  Nobody has taken Bobby Rush seriously for years.

I'm more interested in seeing how Uptown, Edgewater, Lincoln Square etc vote.  If Johnson can get over 70% in those neighborhoods he will certainly win.  Where white Chuy and Lightfoot supporters go is still up in the air.

[Green Line]

Also I can't wait for do-nothing Marty Quinn to get indicted so he can join Madigan & Co on trial.

[warandwar]

I am surprised that a lot of black leaders are supporting Vallas, especially Rush.....Rush is not a fan of the police, and yet, he endorses the most pro-cop mayoral candidate in a long time....

What did Rush get from this endorsement?

You know how it goes. He's trying to pick a winner.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/royalpratt/status/1639985844047032321?s=20

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/royalpratt/status/1639985844047032321?s=20

Gross

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nice to see Vallas bagging an endorsement from a US Senator. I'll take what I can get.

[Oryxslayer]

Nice to see Vallas bagging an endorsement from a US Senator. I'll take what I can get.

There was an article out today in relation to this about Durbin and Pritzker feuding over influence and control over the state party  - now that Madigan is gone of course. So if this is cause of what Vallas pushed Pritzker to do, then maybe this pushes Pritzker to formally endorse and put resources behind Johnson.