WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Barnes +2

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'll just say this, while Rojo may have been a strong candidate at one point, candidate quality can change. Rick Scott went from only winning by 1 pt in an Obama +1 state in an r wave year to winning in a democratic wave year in the same state that was only Trump +2.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

For the record I fundamentally with my fellow democrats posters who are saying "Trafalgar is trash".


While they are not all the time correct, they are still a good polling firm overall

Disagree.  When they miss they almost always miss in the same direction. They are very opaque in their methods. They missed PA, MI, NV, AZ, and GA last presidential election. Not saying it effects their polling but their social media makes clear they have a preference for one party. They may be better than I once thought but I take their results with more than a grain of salt.

That's not true. They overestimated Cordray in OH Gov and Stabenow in MI Sen to name a few

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm skeptical Barnes can pull this off. I think NRSC will drop some spending on negative ads against Barnes and that will scare voters into re electing Johnson. But he would have been in big trouble if Ron Kind was the nominee

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I’m not sure Kind would be doing better. Wisconsin isn’t exactly known for caring much about how “moderate” candidates are, and Barnes is a perfectly fine candidate.

Don't get me wrong, I've been impressed with Barnes so far. I thought he would be dead-on-arrival but he actually has a chance.

I just think that Kind's relationship to the ever-important Driftless region would be a major boon for him had he run statewide.

Why is the Drifless region more important than say increasing enthusiasm in the Milwaukee area? More than one way to win an election.

Most of the people who parrot this(and I'm not accusing you of being one of them) are democratic hacks who are arrogant and think the only reason they aren't winning is because their voters are not showing up(which now is complete lunacy, given democrats are becoming more college educated and those voters have always had higher turnout.) Republicans do the same thing with Oz in PA. Yes he has problems with his base, but that alone would not give him the abysmal ratings he has. He has to be underwater with swing voters beyond belief