WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Barnes +2

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Okay, that's a holy crap moment. Was not expecting to see Barnes ahead in a Trafalgar poll.

Senate is definitely at least tilting D at this point.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

For the record I fundamentally with my fellow democrats posters who are saying "Trafalgar is trash".


While they are not all the time correct, they are still a good polling firm overall

They've been quite good in Midwestern states like Wisconsin in particular. A bit less reliable outside of that region, though still not bad.

I do still think some of their methods are frustratingly opaque, but they're definitely one of the pollsters I am paying the most attention to this year.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I don't really trust Trafalgar due to their methodology...I still have this race as Tilt R

I'll be considering it a tossup just because we're still two months out and things can shift, but if anything Trafalgar's methodology and history would suggest that this poll might underestimate Dems by a point or so - at least if the election were held today.