WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Barnes +2

[ProgressiveModerate]

Right now, I’m predicting a 52-48 D senate and a 228-207 R house. Anything could happen though.

I really think if Democrats win this seat they'll narrowly squeak by in the house. Unless Johnson is just that bad an incumbent.

Unfortunately, I don't see the two as connected at all. WI is a dem leaning state and RoJo is a far right wing trumper who tried to push fake electors in WI and MI. If he loses I think it's b/c of that and not b/c the environment has gotten so competitive for dems that they hold onto the House.

Tbf, the median House seat is further left than WI and it's not like the GOP has nominated a particularly great slate of candidates either beyond a few incumbents and the few places where the GOP electorate hasn't gone full Trumpism. It's just we don't hear about it as much as House races tend to be much more of a local thing whereas Senate races are nationalized.

[Xing]

Right now, I’m predicting a 52-48 D senate and a 228-207 R house. Anything could happen though.

I really think if Democrats win this seat they'll narrowly squeak by in the house. Unless Johnson is just that bad an incumbent.

Unfortunately, I don't see the two as connected at all. WI is a dem leaning state and RoJo is a far right wing trumper who tried to push fake electors in WI and MI. If he loses I think it's b/c of that and not b/c the environment has gotten so competitive for dems that they hold onto the House.

At this point, I don’t think we can call Wisconsin a Democrat-leaning state. It’s pretty much a pure swing state.

[President Johnson]

Wow, that's a shocker. Barnes would be almost certainly win if the election was today. But so would Russ Feingold have in August 2016. Of course this isn't 2016, but I don't want to get exicted too soon.

Downgrading this from Tilt Republican to Tossup.

[Spectator]

I think it’s more the fact that Barnes is already at or near 50% in all these polls that is the most encouraging. Hopefully he can hold it together

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, that's a shocker. Barnes would be almost certainly win if the election was today. But so would Russ Feingold have in August 2016. Of course this isn't 2016, but I don't want to get exicted too soon.

Downgrading this from Tilt Republican to Tossup.

It's a 303 map anyways

[Progressive Pessimist]

Aren’t Wisconsin Republicans particularly secular as a group, and with a lot fewer evangelicals than other states?  I wonder if Wisconsin could have a more pronounced temporary(?) post-Dobbs shift than sone other states for this reason…

A post-Dobbs shift here could be significant in general since the state has the 1849 trigger law. It's now the most Democratic state with the most extreme abortion policies in the nation.

[Alben Barkley]

It is time, GOP:

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If the pollster that randomly adds Republicans has you behind, it’s a bad day.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Ron Johnson will pull ahead again after he reminds voters it's a BIDEN MIDTERM.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson will pull ahead again after he reminds voters it's a BIDEN MIDTERM.

Lol do you know early voting begins at the end of Sept, that's when all the D votes are counted towards the D's, users keep saying the samething Johnson will win, the idea D's rooting for Johnson, do you know Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012 with Obama and Biden in office

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ron Johnson will pull ahead again after he reminds voters it's a BIDEN MIDTERM.

Ron Johnson might be more unpopular than Joe Biden in Wisconsin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What gets lost in these Low Approvals that Users keep clicking on and me sometimes is that the EDay is Nov not now and we still have 60 Days and we just won two Special Election AK and NY 19

Also, there are 15o M females in this country too, Females didn't vote for DIXIECRAT Jefferson whom had slaves really the first Prez they voted for were FDR and BLK females voted for HHH because many Blk females couldn't pay the poll taxes before 1965

That's why Ryan, has a decent shot because he is good looking like Newsom and DeSantis for Females and females like Beasley and Demings  as well as Blk men

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm skeptical Barnes can pull this off. I think NRSC will drop some spending on negative ads against Barnes and that will scare voters into re electing Johnson. But he would have been in big trouble if Ron Kind was the nominee

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm skeptical Barnes can pull this off. I think NRSC will drop some spending on negative ads against Barnes and that will scare voters into re electing Johnson. But he would have been in big trouble if Ron Kind was the nominee

I wonder if Kind now regrets not jumping into this election. I get wanting to retire from a seat that will flip in a neutral environment, but now with how competitive the Senate race could be, he had a real opportunity here and possibly could be doing better than Barnes is right now.

[Xing]

I’m not sure Kind would be doing better. Wisconsin isn’t exactly known for caring much about how “moderate” candidates are, and Barnes is a perfectly fine candidate.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'll just say this, while Rojo may have been a strong candidate at one point, candidate quality can change. Rick Scott went from only winning by 1 pt in an Obama +1 state in an r wave year to winning in a democratic wave year in the same state that was only Trump +2.

It was Trump + 1, actually.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I’m not sure Kind would be doing better. Wisconsin isn’t exactly known for caring much about how “moderate” candidates are, and Barnes is a perfectly fine candidate.

Don't get me wrong, I've been impressed with Barnes so far. I thought he would be dead-on-arrival but he actually has a chance.

I just think that Kind's relationship to the ever-important Driftless region would be a major boon for him had he run statewide.

[John Dule]

I highly doubt this will hold for the next two months, but it will definitely scare Republicans into allocating funds here, which will in turn suck money out of their other (even more competitive) races.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Just made a $15 donation to Barnes. We need these seats if we're going to save our democracy and promote real much-needed change in this country.

[Senator Incitatus]

Remains incredible to me that Johnson didn't get a serious primary challenge. Wisconsin has one of the worst Republican organizations.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Remains incredible to me that Johnson didn't get a serious primary challenge. Wisconsin has one of the worst Republican organizations.

I think Rs anticipated Kleefisch on the Nov Ballot not Michels she was the Fav to beat Evers that's why there was no serious prinary and Johnson would be ahead not behind with Kleefisch, the D's caught a break with Cox and Bailey, Sullivan could of made it competitive I'm IL he has Kirk appeal no one knows whom Bailey is except rural valley everyone knows in Cook County Sullivan and Irvine

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I think retirees care about having the money to buy food then they do price increases.

[Minnesota Mike]

I’m not sure Kind would be doing better. Wisconsin isn’t exactly known for caring much about how “moderate” candidates are, and Barnes is a perfectly fine candidate.

Don't get me wrong, I've been impressed with Barnes so far. I thought he would be dead-on-arrival but he actually has a chance.

I just think that Kind's relationship to the ever-important Driftless region would be a major boon for him had he run statewide.

Why is the Drifless region more important than say increasing enthusiasm in the Milwaukee area? More than one way to win an election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I’m not sure Kind would be doing better. Wisconsin isn’t exactly known for caring much about how “moderate” candidates are, and Barnes is a perfectly fine candidate.

Don't get me wrong, I've been impressed with Barnes so far. I thought he would be dead-on-arrival but he actually has a chance.

I just think that Kind's relationship to the ever-important Driftless region would be a major boon for him had he run statewide.

Why is the Drifless region more important than say increasing enthusiasm in the Milwaukee area? More than one way to win an election.

I suppose, but why wouldn't Ron Kind be able to boost turnout in Madison or Milwaukee either? I think it can be said that he would at the very least be able to do better than Barnes in Driftless just because of his connection to it.

Either way, you're right, for Barnes the best bet is to squeeze every drop of Democratic votes possible out of the two big cities and their suburbs and maybe do his best to at least try and keep margins the rural areas less lopsided. It can be done, but will still be quite the lift.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I’m not sure Kind would be doing better. Wisconsin isn’t exactly known for caring much about how “moderate” candidates are, and Barnes is a perfectly fine candidate.

Don't get me wrong, I've been impressed with Barnes so far. I thought he would be dead-on-arrival but he actually has a chance.

I just think that Kind's relationship to the ever-important Driftless region would be a major boon for him had he run statewide.

Why is the Drifless region more important than say increasing enthusiasm in the Milwaukee area? More than one way to win an election.

Most of the people who parrot this(and I'm not accusing you of being one of them) are democratic hacks who are arrogant and think the only reason they aren't winning is because their voters are not showing up(which now is complete lunacy, given democrats are becoming more college educated and those voters have always had higher turnout.) Republicans do the same thing with Oz in PA. Yes he has problems with his base, but that alone would not give him the abysmal ratings he has. He has to be underwater with swing voters beyond belief