WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Barnes +2

[Minnesota Mike]

For the record I fundamentally with my fellow democrats posters who are saying "Trafalgar is trash".


While they are not all the time correct, they are still a good polling firm overall

Disagree.  When they miss they almost always miss in the same direction. They are very opaque in their methods. They missed PA, MI, NV, AZ, and GA last presidential election. Not saying it effects their polling but their social media makes clear they have a preference for one party. They may be better than I once thought but I take their results with more than a grain of salt.

[Xing]

If Trafalgar still shows a slight Barnes lead or a tie in October, it’ll be very hard not to take the hopium. We’ll see, I’m still skeptical, but Johnson definitely doesn’t have this in the bag.

[Dani Rose]

Don't let us down, cheeseheads. This is your chance to make up for eight years of Scott Walker.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Don't let us down, cheeseheads. This is your chance to make up for eight years of Scott Walker.

They already kind of did that by electing Evers. This time it would be making up for twelve years of Ron Johnson.

...Though if they simultaneously elect Michels I'm not sure what to make of that...

[Dani Rose]

Don't let us down, cheeseheads. This is your chance to make up for eight years of Scott Walker.

They already kind of did that by electing Evers. This time it would be making up for twelve years of Ron Johnson.

...Though if they simultaneously elect Michels I'm not sure what to make of that...

Speaking as someone living next door to them, I stopped trying to comprehend their logic about the time they traded Feingold for Johnson in the first place. Personally, I'll consider Barnes a worthy apology for past wrongdoings, since he might actually have a national future if he wins.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Don't let us down, cheeseheads. This is your chance to make up for eight years of Scott Walker.

They already kind of did that by electing Evers. This time it would be making up for twelve years of Ron Johnson.

...Though if they simultaneously elect Michels I'm not sure what to make of that...

Speaking as someone living next door to them, I stopped trying to comprehend their logic about the time they traded Feingold for Johnson in the first place. Personally, I'll consider Barnes a worthy apology for past wrongdoings, since he might actually have a national future if he wins.

You're preaching to the choir here. Don't get me started on ticket-splitting voters!

[prag_prog]

I don't really trust Trafalgar due to their methodology...I still have this race as Tilt R

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I don't really trust Trafalgar due to their methodology...I still have this race as Tilt R

I'll be considering it a tossup just because we're still two months out and things can shift, but if anything Trafalgar's methodology and history would suggest that this poll might underestimate Dems by a point or so - at least if the election were held today.

[wbrocks67]

I think it’s pretty undeniable that Barnes is winning right now. If the election was on Tuesday I think he’d win. But I think Russ Feingold would’ve won in late August too. Patience.

Given how that race went, no he would not have. Like what??

[wbrocks67]

I don't really trust Trafalgar due to their methodology...I still have this race as Tilt R

I'll be considering it a tossup just because we're still two months out and things can shift, but if anything Trafalgar's methodology and history would suggest that this poll might underestimate Dems by a point or so - at least if the election were held today.

we're really gonna be like two weeks from election day with tons of mail-in votes already in and people are still gonna be pulling this "things can still change!!!" line

[free my dawg]

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Tossup if Trafalgar is indeed the new gold standard. Things could get better for the GOP, or they might now.

when even snowlabrador isn't particularly confident in R chances...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

For the record I fundamentally with my fellow democrats posters who are saying "Trafalgar is trash".


While they are not all the time correct, they are still a good polling firm overall

Disagree.  When they miss they almost always miss in the same direction. They are very opaque in their methods. They missed PA, MI, NV, AZ, and GA last presidential election. Not saying it effects their polling but their social media makes clear they have a preference for one party. They may be better than I once thought but I take their results with more than a grain of salt.

That's not true. They overestimated Cordray in OH Gov and Stabenow in MI Sen to name a few

[wbrocks67]

This at the very least confirms what many of us have been saying - this is not the Ron Johnson of 2016 and he's not some Titanium candidate anymore.

[tagimaucia]

Aren’t Wisconsin Republicans particularly secular as a group, and with a lot fewer evangelicals than other states?  I wonder if Wisconsin could have a more pronounced temporary(?) post-Dobbs shift than sone other states for this reason…

[Eraserhead]

Is the Senate more likely to go D at the moment? yes. But this race? No.

I mean yes this gives me pause because of the pollster but…. still, fools gold.

Not really. This is a race Democrats have a legitimate shot in.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Trafalgar Group on 2022-08-25

Summary: D: 49%, R: 47%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Sir Mohamed]

Whoa, this might actually happen? I try not to get excited, but feels increasingly hard. When even Trafalgar has you losing, it doesn't look good for RoJo.

It's still late August though. But if that keeps up till October, Barnes may seriously win. This looks different than 2016, when Feingold's early leads shrunk over the campaign. Most notably here is that Barnes slightly overperforms Evers. I don't think that will happen, but who knows?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feingold lead shrank because he ran with Hillary in 2016 she isn't Joe BIDEN


That said they said Traggy underestimates D's by a 1 or 2 pts they had Laxalt leading CCM by 2 and Suffolk confirmed CCM is leading but she isn't 7 pts ahead she is ahead 51/49 if it's a neutral Environment and so is Kelly but if it's a blue wave all bets are off

Early voting is staring at the end of September VBM and in 2016 we didn't have VBM all of the D vote is gonna be banked early anyways and just won't be tabulated until November

[TodayJunior]

I have my doubts. I’ve seen them underestimate Johnson before.

[Sir Mohamed]

So on 538, the poll drove Johnson's winning chances down to 54 in 100. Was around 70 just 4 weeks ago.

[Person Man]

Right now, I’m predicting a 52-48 D senate and a 228-207 R house. Anything could happen though.

[Hope For A New Era]

WOAH

[soundchaser]

Right now, I’m predicting a 52-48 D senate and a 228-207 R house. Anything could happen though.

I really think if Democrats win this seat they'll narrowly squeak by in the house. Unless Johnson is just that bad an incumbent.

[Yoda]

Right now, I’m predicting a 52-48 D senate and a 228-207 R house. Anything could happen though.

I really think if Democrats win this seat they'll narrowly squeak by in the house. Unless Johnson is just that bad an incumbent.

Unfortunately, I don't see the two as connected at all. WI is a dem leaning state and RoJo is a far right wing trumper who tried to push fake electors in WI and MI. If he loses I think it's b/c of that and not b/c the environment has gotten so competitive for dems that they hold onto the House.