NC-13: GSG, Nickel (D) internal - Nickel +4

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://m.box.com/shared_item/https%3A%2F%2Fglobalstrategygroup.app.box.com%2Fs%2F6rfzs6djtbbox5y9b9p6jdiaw59zainr

Wiley Nickel (D) 44
Bo Hines (R) 40

Aug 29-Sep 1, 500 LV

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Momentum in NC

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

God dang it what is he doing? His internals should be way better. Is he not attacking Hines enough or something?

[wbrocks67]

God dang it what is he doing? His internals should be way better. Is he not attacking Hines enough or something?

Isn't this literally a tossup district? Also, no one thinks you want Nickel to actually win so stop trolling. You're exhausting.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Is this really an internal poll or just a partisan pollster?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

God dang it what is he doing? His internals should be way better. Is he not attacking Hines enough or something?

Isn't this literally a tossup district? Also, no one thinks you want Nickel to actually win so stop trolling. You're exhausting.

Don't even. I am not trolling nor do I want Hines to win. There are many examples of D internals underestimating Republicans beyond belief and so if Nickel was winning the general(which I agree he would only win by a couple points) at this point he would be drastically ahead in his internals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We actually won 319 not 306 last time because we won NC Gov eventhough we lost the SEN, users love to believe that we won't ever win Red states anymore and Biden was Veep to Obama in 2008/12 and Bush W had the same Approvals as Trump,users act like Obama won red states all by himself, it's still a Neutral Environment until everything is called but maps are blank on EDay it's not a Red Environment we lost H seats in a Neutral Environment last time

[Gracile]

Is this really an internal poll or just a partisan pollster?

It is an internal; Nickel was the poll's sponsor according to FiveThirtyEight.

[Spectator]

God dang it what is he doing? His internals should be way better. Is he not attacking Hines enough or something?

Isn't this literally a tossup district? Also, no one thinks you want Nickel to actually win so stop trolling. You're exhausting.

Don't even. I am not trolling nor do I want Hines to win. There are many examples of D internals underestimating Republicans beyond belief and so if Nickel was winning the general(which I agree he would only win by a couple points) at this point he would be drastically ahead in his internals

No? Obama’s internal polls were right on the money in 2012, and there’s many other examples. I think Doug Jones actually had internals of him losing in 2017 even after the molestation allegations.

Isn’t this a Biden <1 seat? I think Nickels will win since the Triad is chock full of high turnout liberal whites that are pretty inflexible.

[wbrocks67]

God dang it what is he doing? His internals should be way better. Is he not attacking Hines enough or something?

Isn't this literally a tossup district? Also, no one thinks you want Nickel to actually win so stop trolling. You're exhausting.

Don't even. I am not trolling nor do I want Hines to win. There are many examples of D internals underestimating Republicans beyond belief and so if Nickel was winning the general(which I agree he would only win by a couple points) at this point he would be drastically ahead in his internals

You troll in literally every thread. Not every D internal is going to be D+10. That is a ridiculous assessment that lacks any nuance or intelligence, so yes, you are trolling. Stop.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

God dang it what is he doing? His internals should be way better. Is he not attacking Hines enough or something?

Isn't this literally a tossup district? Also, no one thinks you want Nickel to actually win so stop trolling. You're exhausting.

Don't even. I am not trolling nor do I want Hines to win. There are many examples of D internals underestimating Republicans beyond belief and so if Nickel was winning the general(which I agree he would only win by a couple points) at this point he would be drastically ahead in his internals

No? Obama’s internal polls were right on the money in 2012, and there’s many other examples. I think Doug Jones actually had internals of him losing in 2017 even after the molestation allegations.

Isn’t this a Biden <1 seat? I think Nickels will win since the Triad is chock full of high turnout liberal whites that are pretty inflexible.

Maybe only the dccc internals are like this, but I distinctly remember in 2020 there were several d internals where the Democrat was leading by double digits and drastically underperformed or even lost(Joe Cunningham, Angie Craig etc)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tilt D -> Tilt D

[MT Treasurer]

God dang it what is he doing? His internals should be way better. Is he not attacking Hines enough or something?

Isn't this literally a tossup district? Also, no one thinks you want Nickel to actually win so stop trolling. You're exhausting.

Don't even. I am not trolling nor do I want Hines to win. There are many examples of D internals underestimating Republicans beyond belief and so if Nickel was winning the general(which I agree he would only win by a couple points) at this point he would be drastically ahead in his internals

No? Obama’s internal polls were right on the money in 2012, and there’s many other examples. I think Doug Jones actually had internals of him losing in 2017 even after the molestation allegations.

Isn’t this a Biden <1 seat? I think Nickels will win since the Triad is chock full of high turnout liberal whites that are pretty inflexible.

Obama was the last Democrat who was competitive with non-college-educated whites in several battleground states (the fact that 2012 also happens to be the most recent year in which there were no major problems with polling is probably no coincidence) and Jones ran in a special election in which receiving fewer votes than Hillary Clinton was enough for a win because of the dramatic drop-off in Republican turnout. Don’t think these are at all comparable to post-Trump November elections, and it should also be noted that the Jones campaign released an internal showing him up 48-47 over Tuberville in October 2020.

[Tintrlvr]

God dang it what is he doing? His internals should be way better. Is he not attacking Hines enough or something?

This is a misunderstanding of the purpose of releasing internals. You don't release internals showing you ahead by 15; that risks people losing interest in your race (not donating, not volunteering) because it looks like a slam dunk. You release internals showing you ahead, but narrowly, if they exist, or internals showing you behind, but narrowly, if internals showing you ahead don't exist (or if you want to keep cultivating an underdog, flying-under-the-radar strategy), in order to foster the view that you can win but are not guaranteed to win so there should be heavy focus on your race in order to drive donations and volunteers to support you.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

God dang it what is he doing? His internals should be way better. Is he not attacking Hines enough or something?

Isn't this literally a tossup district? Also, no one thinks you want Nickel to actually win so stop trolling. You're exhausting.

Don't even. I am not trolling nor do I want Hines to win. There are many examples of D internals underestimating Republicans beyond belief and so if Nickel was winning the general(which I agree he would only win by a couple points) at this point he would be drastically ahead in his internals

No? Obama’s internal polls were right on the money in 2012, and there’s many other examples. I think Doug Jones actually had internals of him losing in 2017 even after the molestation allegations.

Isn’t this a Biden <1 seat? I think Nickels will win since the Triad is chock full of high turnout liberal whites that are pretty inflexible.

Maybe only the dccc internals are like this, but I distinctly remember in 2020 there were several d internals where the Democrat was leading by double digits and drastically underperformed or even lost(Joe Cunningham, Angie Craig etc)

Lol do you know why Trump improved the unemployment was going down from 9/7% but we had no inflation because wages only went up in 2021 from 10/15 that's why Trump came close

We won 319 we didn't win the Senate race but we won 306 with NC because we won the Gov race

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

God dang it what is he doing? His internals should be way better. Is he not attacking Hines enough or something?

Isn't this literally a tossup district? Also, no one thinks you want Nickel to actually win so stop trolling. You're exhausting.

Don't even. I am not trolling nor do I want Hines to win. There are many examples of D internals underestimating Republicans beyond belief and so if Nickel was winning the general(which I agree he would only win by a couple points) at this point he would be drastically ahead in his internals

No? Obama’s internal polls were right on the money in 2012, and there’s many other examples. I think Doug Jones actually had internals of him losing in 2017 even after the molestation allegations.

Isn’t this a Biden <1 seat? I think Nickels will win since the Triad is chock full of high turnout liberal whites that are pretty inflexible.

Obama was the last Democrat who was competitive with non-college-educated whites in several battleground states (the fact that 2012 also happens to be the most recent year in which there were no major problems with polling is probably no coincidence) and Jones ran in a special election in which receiving fewer votes than Hillary Clinton was enough for a win because of the dramatic drop-off in Republican turnout. Don’t think these are at all comparable to post-Trump November elections, and it should also be noted that the Jones campaign released an internal showing him up 48-47 over Tuberville in October 2020.

IIRC there weren’t major polling problems in 2018.  Also, that Jones internal is a freak outlier even by the standards of internals and certainly not remotely comparable to this one.  I doubt people took any poll showing Jones within striking distance - much less ahead - of Tuberville even remotely seriously in September or October of 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

God dang it what is he doing? His internals should be way better. Is he not attacking Hines enough or something?

Isn't this literally a tossup district? Also, no one thinks you want Nickel to actually win so stop trolling. You're exhausting.

Don't even. I am not trolling nor do I want Hines to win. There are many examples of D internals underestimating Republicans beyond belief and so if Nickel was winning the general(which I agree he would only win by a couple points) at this point he would be drastically ahead in his internals

No? Obama’s internal polls were right on the money in 2012, and there’s many other examples. I think Doug Jones actually had internals of him losing in 2017 even after the molestation allegations.

Isn’t this a Biden <1 seat? I think Nickels will win since the Triad is chock full of high turnout liberal whites that are pretty inflexible.

Obama was the last Democrat who was competitive with non-college-educated whites in several battleground states (the fact that 2012 also happens to be the most recent year in which there were no major problems with polling is probably no coincidence) and Jones ran in a special election in which receiving fewer votes than Hillary Clinton was enough for a win because of the dramatic drop-off in Republican turnout. Don’t think these are at all comparable to post-Trump November elections, and it should also be noted that the Jones campaign released an internal showing him up 48-47 over Tuberville in October 2020.

IIRC there weren’t major polling problems in 2018.  Also, that Jones internal is a freak outlier even by the standards of internals and certainly not remotely comparable to this one.  I doubt people took any poll showing Jones within striking distance - much less ahead - of Tuberville even remotely seriously in September or October of 2020

Doug Jones was a blue dog but he wasn't a DIXIECRAT there are very few of them in the South the country would have been best off if Jones was in the SEN, he is very popular in the Blk community, just like Tim Ryan is that's why Tim Ryan can win He will get 90% of the Blk vote Vance will get 10% and DeWine got 6% over Cordray, Vance won't touch the Blk vote

What I mean popular most Dems are but Jones and Ryan are the most popular in the Blk community, Blks have donated in line the most to Tim Ryan just like I did with Ted Strickland ..Cordray underperform DeWine in Blk community that's why he lost by 3 and Brown won by 6, DeWine got like 6%, of Blk vote and of course majority of white women

[wesmoorenerd]

This is a perfectly respectable result in an internal in a district that isn't even part of the Dems' most likely path to a majority. The bedwetting from some needs to stop.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know Progressive Moderate made a D nut map in 2020 and now he makes R nut maps the 54R majority has sailed

We all gonna be scoreboard watching what if you R map is wrong you say OH I didn't know that's why I don't make them but Xing does

[Spectator]

God dang it what is he doing? His internals should be way better. Is he not attacking Hines enough or something?

Isn't this literally a tossup district? Also, no one thinks you want Nickel to actually win so stop trolling. You're exhausting.

Don't even. I am not trolling nor do I want Hines to win. There are many examples of D internals underestimating Republicans beyond belief and so if Nickel was winning the general(which I agree he would only win by a couple points) at this point he would be drastically ahead in his internals

No? Obama’s internal polls were right on the money in 2012, and there’s many other examples. I think Doug Jones actually had internals of him losing in 2017 even after the molestation allegations.

Isn’t this a Biden <1 seat? I think Nickels will win since the Triad is chock full of high turnout liberal whites that are pretty inflexible.

Obama was the last Democrat who was competitive with non-college-educated whites in several battleground states (the fact that 2012 also happens to be the most recent year in which there were no major problems with polling is probably no coincidence) and Jones ran in a special election in which receiving fewer votes than Hillary Clinton was enough for a win because of the dramatic drop-off in Republican turnout. Don’t think these are at all comparable to post-Trump November elections, and it should also be noted that the Jones campaign released an internal showing him up 48-47 over Tuberville in October 2020.

Sure. But that doesn’t negate my point that this internal showing him up only 4 or whatever means he “must actually be losing.” We just don’t know. Plenty of examples of internals showing narrow leads in the past few cycles that ended up being roughly accurate. Yes, there were a lot of sh**tty ones in 2020 too (A Dem leading Van Drew in NJ-02 by 6 comes to mind)

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is a perfectly respectable result in an internal in a district that isn't even part of the Dems' most likely path to a majority. The bedwetting from some needs to stop.

Yeah, am I missing something here? This actually seems really good for Nickel for right now.