MI GOV Trafalgar WHITMER LEADS BY 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1563229312991772672?t=TRg2h7yUGJgk-2BXGRHMWQ&s=19

WHITMER D-INC 49
Dixon R 45
Buzuma L 2

[Gass3268]

Just a reminder that they said Trump would win Michigan by 2, which was off by ~5 points.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The Gold standard has spoken! Lol at Dixon underperforming Trump.
But hey, from what I recall, he never advocated against allowing a 14 year old rape victim to get an abortion

[Progressive Pessimist]

So, Whitmer is indeed in the driver's seat as much as it's seemed. Good to see. Obviously it's not as much as a lead as in other polls, but it was unlikely that she was ever going to come close to her 2018 margin.

As with all Michigan polls this year though, I'm curious how the referendum may affect the races, if at all. It's at least sure to supercharge Democratic turnout to the benefit of Democratic candidates. The question is if polls are reflecting this or not.

[wbrocks67]

I do find it interesting how Trafalgar always manages to find races somewhat competitive, even when other polls don't. Who knows who's right but it's like you can *always* count on them to find a somewhat competitive race no matter where it is.

[Alben Barkley]

Safe D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I do find it interesting how Trafalgar always manages to find races somewhat competitive, even when other polls don't. Who knows who's right but it's like you can *always* count on them to find a somewhat competitive race no matter where it is.

I won't matter anyways if a D is leading in a blue state just like with Oz, we will have enough of the Early vote VBM to fend off any GOP comeback Oct 1/31st this is Safe D anyways that's why Crist still has a chance because it's close and the Early VBM can come in nicely

[Xing]

Safe D

Even if this poll is underestimating Whitmer, she is not safe if the environment gets better for Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

Safe D

Even if this poll is underestimating Whitmer, she is not safe if the environment gets better for Republicans.

Where is the evidence of that happening (or likely happening) though?

[seskoog]

They were 5 points off Trump's margin in 2020. I think that Whitmer will run similar to or slightly below her 2018 margin this year.

[DaleCooper]

I do find it interesting how Trafalgar always manages to find races somewhat competitive, even when other polls don't. Who knows who's right but it's like you can *always* count on them to find a somewhat competitive race no matter where it is.

I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt for now. If they humiliate themselves then I'll change my tune.

[Xing]

Safe D

Even if this poll is underestimating Whitmer, she is not safe if the environment gets better for Republicans.

Where is the evidence of that happening (or likely happening) though?

The possibility of it happening means the race isn’t Safe D, not to mention that there would be some historical precedent for Republicans coming home in the fall.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D

Even if this poll is underestimating Whitmer, she is not safe if the environment gets better for Republicans.

Where is the evidence of that happening (or likely happening) though?

The possibility of it happening means the race isn’t Safe D, not to mention that there would be some historical precedent for Republicans coming home in the fall.

Wrong Early voting begins in October and the urban vote is gonna bank D in during vote by mail it just won't be tabulated until Nov you keep saying the same thing

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Lean D by margin but Likely D by outcome

[citizenZ]

So, Whitmer is indeed in the driver's seat as much as it's seemed. Good to see. Obviously it's not as much as a lead as in other polls, but it was unlikely that she was ever going to come close to her 2018 margin.

As with all Michigan polls this year though, I'm curious how the referendum may affect the races, if at all. It's at least sure to supercharge Democratic turnout to the benefit of Democratic candidates. The question is if polls are reflecting this or not.

A +4 "lead" in what could be a bad Democrat year with a Biden approval in the upper 30s makes you comfortable enough to say she's in the 'driver's seat'?

It's this kind of misguided optimism that allowed Hillary Clinton's campaign to take their eye off Michigan in 2016.

[NYDem]

So, Whitmer is indeed in the driver's seat as much as it's seemed. Good to see. Obviously it's not as much as a lead as in other polls, but it was unlikely that she was ever going to come close to her 2018 margin.

As with all Michigan polls this year though, I'm curious how the referendum may affect the races, if at all. It's at least sure to supercharge Democratic turnout to the benefit of Democratic candidates. The question is if polls are reflecting this or not.

A +4 "lead" in what could be a bad Democrat year with a Biden approval in the upper 30s makes you comfortable enough to say she's in the 'driver's seat'?

It's this kind of misguided optimism that allowed Hillary Clinton's campaign to take their eye off Michigan in 2016.

Biden’s average approval is 43.5 as of today, not the 30s. Nobody is saying that Whitaker doesn’t need to campaign. Saying she’s in the “driver’s seat” just implies that she is currently in the better position, which is supported by nearly every metric about this race (polling, fundraising, etc.)

[wbrocks67]

So, Whitmer is indeed in the driver's seat as much as it's seemed. Good to see. Obviously it's not as much as a lead as in other polls, but it was unlikely that she was ever going to come close to her 2018 margin.

As with all Michigan polls this year though, I'm curious how the referendum may affect the races, if at all. It's at least sure to supercharge Democratic turnout to the benefit of Democratic candidates. The question is if polls are reflecting this or not.

A +4 "lead" in what could be a bad Democrat year with a Biden approval in the upper 30s makes you comfortable enough to say she's in the 'driver's seat'?

It's this kind of misguided optimism that allowed Hillary Clinton's campaign to take their eye off Michigan in 2016.

except nobody is taking their eye off anything...

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Whitmer's probably going to win because Dixon is crazy, but she shouldn't sleep on this race. Watch the Covid effect.