PA-GOV (Franklin & Marshall): Shapiro +11

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro (D) 44%
Mastriano (R) 33%
Hackenburg (L) 2%
DiGulio (G) 1%
Soloski (K) 0%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 19%

WITH LEANERS:
Shapiro (D) 48%
Mastriano (R) 36%

Favorabilities:
Josh Shapiro: 44/32 (+12)
Doug Mastriano: 28/49 (-21)

Best understands the concerns of Pennsylvanians? 47% Shapiro, 33% Mastriano
Is closet to your views on social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage? 45% Shapiro, 32% Mastriano
Will change government policies in a way that will improve your economic situation? 36% Shapiro, 33% Mastriano

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/952120655243389694-f-mpoll-august2022-toplinereport.pdf

[Sir Mohamed]

Really annoyed by these 20% undecided polls. There's not much to learn other than Mastriano and Oz struggling to consolidate their bases yet. Both will get at least 44-45%, no matter what.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Shapiro is not winning by double digits even if this is a neutral environment(I doubt this is true but I've beaten that drum enough)
If people think the polls won't underestimate Republicans dramatically, they are kidding themselves

[Alben Barkley]

Shapiro is not winning by double digits even if this is a neutral environment(I doubt this is true but I've beaten that drum enough)
If people think the polls won't underestimate Republicans dramatically, they are kidding themselves

Why should I when they’ve been pretty accurate in most elections in my lifetime without someone named Trump on the ballot? Or when the latest polling miss actually underestimated a Democrat (Pat Ryan)? It would be a mistake to assume that polls will always and forever massively underestimate Republicans based on just two unusual elections. Of course, that’s all doomers and Republicans can use as copium.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If people think the polls won't underestimate Republicans dramatically, they are kidding themselves

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=519890.0

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Oh F&M and your legendarily massive numbers of undecideds. You will never change, even though you should.

[citizenZ]

Shapiro is not winning by double digits even if this is a neutral environment(I doubt this is true but I've beaten that drum enough)
If people think the polls won't underestimate Republicans dramatically, they are kidding themselves

Why should I when they’ve been pretty accurate in most elections in my lifetime without someone named Trump on the ballot? Or when the latest polling miss actually underestimated a Democrat (Pat Ryan)? It would be a mistake to assume that polls will always and forever massively underestimate Republicans based on just two unusual elections. Of course, that’s all doomers and Republicans can use as copium.

2014 and 2018 didn't have Trump on the ballot and they had many misses.

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro is not winning by double digits even if this is a neutral environment(I doubt this is true but I've beaten that drum enough)
If people think the polls won't underestimate Republicans dramatically, they are kidding themselves

Why should I when they’ve been pretty accurate in most elections in my lifetime without someone named Trump on the ballot? Or when the latest polling miss actually underestimated a Democrat (Pat Ryan)? It would be a mistake to assume that polls will always and forever massively underestimate Republicans based on just two unusual elections. Of course, that’s all doomers and Republicans can use as copium.

2014 and 2018 didn't have Trump on the ballot and they had many misses.

Polls in PA (average wise) were very strong in 2018.

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted that with leaners pushed, it goes to Shapiro 48, Mastriano 36.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If people think the polls won't underestimate Republicans dramatically, they are kidding themselves

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=519890.0

Woop dee doo you have one example from a really garbage pollster. I can count numerous times where it has been the other way around. Remember NJ Gov?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Shapiro is not winning by double digits even if this is a neutral environment(I doubt this is true but I've beaten that drum enough)
If people think the polls won't underestimate Republicans dramatically, they are kidding themselves

Why should I when they’ve been pretty accurate in most elections in my lifetime without someone named Trump on the ballot? Or when the latest polling miss actually underestimated a Democrat (Pat Ryan)? It would be a mistake to assume that polls will always and forever massively underestimate Republicans based on just two unusual elections. Of course, that’s all doomers and Republicans can use as copium.

2014 and 2018 didn't have Trump on the ballot and they had many misses.

Even recently, NJ Governor fits. Trump wasn't on the ballot then either!

[Progressive Pessimist]

If people think the polls won't underestimate Republicans dramatically, they are kidding themselves

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=519890.0

Woop dee doo you have one example from a really garbage pollster. I can count numerous times where it has been the other way around. Remember NJ Gov?

The polls for our Governor's race last year did nail what would end up being his percentage of the vote though. He was consistently at 50 or 51% in almost every poll. The problem was that undecideds ended up going probably 90% for Ciatarelli in the end, so that result weakened the predicted margins in polls. So if Democrats are at that magical 50-51% consistently, it's probably a sign that they will, at worst, win by the barest amount they need to.

Shapiro is a bit short of that, but polls of this race give him more room to fall if more voters start deciding to back Mastriano. But Mastriano doesn't appear to have had anywhere close to the advertising dominance that Ciatarelli had in New Jersey, the appeal to undecideds, or even the similar fundraising to his opponent. Shapiro is still very much favored. It just obviously won't be by the blowout margins we're seeing in polls.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The real story of this poll: 39% of people in this sample report low or no confidence in the counting of PA's votes.