https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBftOfXgdeQThe future of China will be decided in a few days.
On Oct 23, the new leadership of China will be elected by around 200 members of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party中国共产党中央委员会, at least in theory. The true result was already decided in close door meetings in September, yet it will be kept secret until the election date.
The highest decision making body of China is the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) of the Chinese Communist Party, composed of seven members. Here are my predictions of its new composition:
Xi Jinping习近平, the current paramount leader, will get a third term, and likely the fourth as well. This breaks the precedents set by his predecessors Jiang Zemin江泽民 and Hu Jintao胡锦涛, that the paramount leader only serves two full terms. However, this was effectively decided five years ago, when no heir apparent was installed in the PSC after the 19th Party Congress(十九大). What’s actually surprising is that Xi will gain almost total control of the party and the government, by stacking his loyalists into the PSC. Politicians outside of Xi faction, like Li Keqiang李克强 and Wang Yang 汪洋, will be forced into retirement. And Hu Chunhua 胡春华, who was once assumed as the potential successor of Xi, will be kept out of PSC, for the second time.
Wang Huning王沪宁, a current PSC member, will be elevated to the Chairman of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee(人大常委会主任), ranking second in PSC. The National People’s Congress (NPC, composed of 2980 members), is the official highest organ of state power and the highest legislative body of China, roughly similar to the Congress in the west. The Standing Committee of NPC (人大常委会,composed of 175 members), is a permanent body of the National People’s Congress, it enacts and amends all national laws except laws that should be enacted and amended by the NPC and meets every two months. However, the enactment and amendment of Constitution and laws are actually decided by the PSC of the CCP.
Li Qiang李强, the current party head of Shanghai上海市委书记 and a key loyalist of Xi, will be directly promoted to the Premier, defeating possible alternatives like Wang Yang汪洋, Han Zheng韩正 and Hu Chunhua胡春华. This breaks the almost 50 year tradition that the Premier should have served as the vice Premier before.
Zhao Leji 赵乐际, a current PSC member in charge of anti-corruption practice, was promoted to the chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC,政协主席). Although his ranking will be raised from the sixth to the fourth, his effective power will be greatly reduced, since the CPPCC(政协, composed of 2158 members), is only a consultative body, and its chair is the least powerful position in the PSC.
Huang Kunming黄坤明, the current Head of the Propaganda Department of the Chinese Communist Party中宣部主任 and another loyalist of Xi, will be promoted to be the successor of Wang Huning, as the first Secretary of the Secretariat of CCP中央书记处第一书记. He is a black horse in this election, overlooked by most scholars in the west.
Li Xi李希, the current party head of Guangdong Province广东省委书记, will be elevated to be the Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of CCP中纪委书记, in charge of anti-corruption practice. He has been a close friend of Xi for decades.
Ding Xuexiang丁薛祥, the current Director of the General Office of CCP中共中央办公室主任 and another loyalist of Xi, will be promoted to the First Vice Premier常务副总理. He is considered a strong candidate for the PSC, however, his position as the first vice premier is very surprising, and breaks many norms of CCP.
This means Xi will have total control of China for the next 5 or more years. I will analyze what it means for US-China relationship and the future of Taiwan in the next video. If you are interested, please follow this channel. You can also find me @PolitAnalytic at Twitter.
