OH-SEN (Trafalgar): Vance +5 (user search)
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  OH-SEN (Trafalgar): Vance +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-SEN (Trafalgar): Vance +5  (Read 2333 times)
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
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Posts: 22,468
United States



« on: August 23, 2022, 08:46:36 AM »

May actually nail Ryan's final vote share. Not that I ever bought this would be competitive in a midterm under a Dem WH. It's still OH after all and polling constantly overestimated Dems, especially with months out.

Safe R.
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2022, 08:57:21 AM »

May actually nail Ryan's final vote share. Not that I ever bought this would be competitive in a midterm under a Dem WH. It's still OH after all and polling constantly overestimated Dems, especially with months out.

Safe R.

Lol Ryan had the exact same lead two wks ago remember 46/41, it's not over with 70 days left

It's in the Database all OH polls now, if Ryan was leading two wks ago and it flipped it can flip back to Ryan it's not over by a long shot the Gov race is tracking Strickland v Portman 52/37

OH polling has a track record of overestimating Dems over the summer or with weeks to go before the election. At the end of the summer, numbers began to shift and still underestimated the GOP.

I think this is the usual polling shift and Vance will end up winning by at least 6 pts. I predict ~53-46%.
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