AZ-SEN (Trafalgar): Kelly +4

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1564284399469969408?s=20&t=91PKcfj1W...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I could see that being around the final margin. Maybe a point or two low, but well within reason.

[soundchaser]

Worth noting Trafalgar missed pretty hard in Arizona in 2020. Happy to have this race at Lean D.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Worth noting Trafalgar missed pretty hard in Arizona in 2020. Happy to have this race at Lean D.

Overestimated Trump by 4 points but nailed the Senate race in 2020. They also overestimated McSally by 5 in 2018. Kelly's in good shape atm.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yep it's a RH and a 303 map Sen like it was meant to be it's was always projected to be a 52/48 S and a 225 RH but a blue or red wave could tip the balance in either direction I am anxious to see their FL POLL

I am still optimistic on OH, NC and FL though we still have to vote

[wbrocks67]

It's always interesting to me too how Traf always happens to have third parties higher than they normally would. The L here being nearly 5% is way too much, but Kelly +4 is obviously a very believable end result

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is gonna win 51/48 like last time this is a 4 pt margin and CCM is gonna win 51/49

But the user prediction still showing NV and AZ and WI Lean R are hackish and it's a D forum

Just like Progressive Moderate keep giving his takes and he has an R nut map he destroys his credibility

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But electionsguy told me candidate quality doesn't matter!!!

[Xing]

It’s actually 3.3, so the margin would round down to 3, but still a good sign for Kelly. It’s possible that even Trafalgar is underestimating Republicans, but I don’t think Republicans should be in the position where they need that to be the case.

[President Johnson]

Trafalgar seems more acccurate in the Midwest, but if even they have Kelly up outside the margin of error, this is a very strong Lean Democratic.

This could be close to the final margin though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trafalgar seems more acccurate in the Midwest, but if even they have Kelly up outside the margin of error, this is a very strong Lean Democratic.

This could be close to the final margin though.

Remember that MoE applies to each candidate's vote share, not to the margin between them.  So the MoE of 2.9% in this poll means that Kelly's range is 44.7%-50.5%, while Masters's is 41.4%-47.2%.  Since these ranges overlap, the result is not outside the margin of error.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trafalgar seems more acccurate in the Midwest, but if even they have Kelly up outside the margin of error, this is a very strong Lean Democratic.

This could be close to the final margin though.

Kelly will win 51/48 like last time and CCM 51/49

[tagimaucia]

I'd like to see a DataOrbital poll of AZ.  Even though they're a partisan (R) pollster, they have a very good track record and I trust them more than anyone else in the state.  I do think Kelly is ahead but I don't really have any idea or confidence of how robust the lead is at this point.

[NYDem]

It’s a real shame that Trafalgar has fallen so far. Between this and Wisconsin it’s clear that they’ve started massively oversampling Democrats. After all, there is literally no way that Democrats can win the Senate in 2022 because it’s a Biden Midterm and candidate quality doesn’t matter.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In spite of Trafalgar supposedly having less accuracy in the West, which I had started to buy thanks to their Colorado polls, this actually seems very in-step with what nearly every other poll has suggested about this race. I think I'm finally going to move it to tilt D.

I wish I could say the same about the other statewide races here...

[Utah Neolib]

Trafalgar's final Arizona poll in 2020 was Trump +3. Biden won by 0.3. They were republican leaning by 3.3 points.
Trafalgar's final Arizona Senate poll in 2018 was McSally +2. Sinema won by 2.3. They were republican leaning by 4.3.
If you average it out, Trafalgar's Arizona polling has been 3.8 points off toward the Republican candidate the last 2 cycles.
It's always possible that they are off to the left this cycle.

[Alben Barkley]

Trafalgar's final Arizona poll in 2020 was Trump +3. Biden won by 0.3. They were republican leaning by 3.3 points.
Trafalgar's final Arizona Senate poll in 2018 was McSally +2. Sinema won by 2.3. They were republican leaning by 4.3.
If you average it out, Trafalgar's Arizona polling has been 3.8 points off toward the Republican candidate the last 2 cycles.
It's always possible that they are off to the left this cycle.

Has Trafalgar EVER been off to the left though? I think you should always assume they favor the Republican unless given damn good reason to believe otherwise.