OH-SEN (Trafalgar): Vance +5
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  OH-SEN (Trafalgar): Vance +5
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Author Topic: OH-SEN (Trafalgar): Vance +5  (Read 1605 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: August 22, 2022, 11:00:37 AM »
« edited: August 22, 2022, 11:04:18 AM by wbrocks67 »

Vance up +4.6

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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2022, 11:05:33 AM »

Probably the margin in the end
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2022, 11:08:49 AM »

I do find it interesting that they have PA's electorate more white than 2020 but Ohio's less white.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2022, 11:10:39 AM »

So National Republicans are pouring millions of dollars into a race thatís R+5?
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2022, 11:12:50 AM »

So National Republicans are pouring millions of dollars into a race thatís R+5?

National Republicans were also pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into WA and CO, running ads which should have been reserved for winnable races. Maybe national Republicans arenít particularly smart and their spending decisions tell us more about their incompetence than about the actual competitiveness of a particular Senate race?
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2022, 11:13:44 AM »

Consistent with a likely R race. (although I'll probably move it to Safe by October).
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2022, 11:22:37 AM »

Seems about right. Vance will win but heís making it much harder than it needs to be.
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A Single Solemn Rose
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« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2022, 11:22:58 AM »

Yeah this race shouldn't be as close as it is, but Vance will likely still pull it out.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2022, 11:37:10 AM »

I think a lot of people will ultimately be embarrassed by their reflexive impressions of this race.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2022, 11:38:18 AM »

Vance was always going to win this, but if this is actually the margin (I think itíll be at least somewhat bigger than this), thatís not particularly good news for Republicans in other races.
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Darthpi is pleasantly surprised
darthpi
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« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2022, 12:03:13 PM »

Seems about right. Suffice to say that if Republicans are only up 5 in Ohio, that bodes reasonably well for Democratic chances in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, and elsewhere.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #11 on: August 22, 2022, 12:12:17 PM »

I swear to God, Gibbons or Mandel might have actually lost to Ryan
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2022, 12:35:14 PM »

This actually seems right for now. Finally a good Ohio pollster.
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Spectator
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« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2022, 01:02:05 PM »

Consistent with a likely R race. (although I'll probably move it to Safe by October).

Itís Safe R now
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President Johnson
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2022, 01:19:03 PM »

Likely/Safe Republican.

I honestly never bought this was competitive, and from here on the margin will only widen, at least with the pollsters that were more accurate the last few cycles. This is basically consistent with previous Ohio polling, looking good for the Democrats over the summer before Republican pulled ahead by a few points. Then they ended up with a solid win.

Vance may not be the best possible candidate, but we're talking about a two-time Trump +8 state and a midterm under a Democratic president. Even in a red ripple or neutral year, that one isn't happening.
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2016
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« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2022, 01:20:44 PM »

Seems about right. Vance will win but heís making it much harder than it needs to be.
He just isn't a great Candidate. That being said this is the 2nd Poll in a row after Emerson showing him up on Ryan.

I think DeWine will carrying over the Finish Line. The larger DeWines Margin the more likely Vance wins.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2022, 05:36:28 PM »

Trafalgar has been polling a lot lately. Might we see some from them in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin next?

Anyway, as for this particular poll, I'm glad I kept my expectations for this race tempered. It would probably take a Democratic tsunami for Ryan to be able to win here, and that would probably be just scraping by too. It's not his fault really, his campaign seems to be pretty good, it would have to be for the GOP to investing so much money here. But it's Ohio in a Biden midterm, there's only so much he can do.

On the other hand, if this is an accurate prediction (as it usually is with Trafalgar in the Midwest) it's really not all that impressive for Vance. I suppose we can take solace in that, and it perhaps is an indication that the GOP is doing worse than they should be this year as other fundamentals and polls indicate.
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GM Team Member WB
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« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2022, 05:44:03 PM »

So National Republicans are pouring millions of dollars into a race thatís R+5?

National Republicans were also pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into WA and CO, running ads which should have been reserved for winnable races. Maybe national Republicans arenít particularly smart and their spending decisions tell us more about their incompetence than about the actual competitiveness of a particular Senate race?
I wouldn't be surprised if Rick Scott was doing this as some elaborate ruse to siphon a little money without people noticing.
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Conditional Surrender Taft
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2022, 09:15:15 PM »

So National Republicans are pouring millions of dollars into a race thatís R+5?

National Republicans were also pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into WA and CO, running ads which should have been reserved for winnable races. Maybe national Republicans arenít particularly smart and their spending decisions tell us more about their incompetence than about the actual competitiveness of a particular Senate race?
I wouldn't be surprised if Rick Scott was doing this as some elaborate ruse to siphon a little money without people noticing.

Well some GOP Insiders were calling it the 'National Rick Scott Committee'. He might be spending the money in places where it doesn't need to go to build the coalition of assholes, corrupt politicians, and corporate lobbyists he needs to run for the Presidency (God Help Us)
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UWS
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« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2022, 05:06:12 AM »
« Edited: August 23, 2022, 05:13:46 AM by UWS »

The cavalry is on the way for JD Vance through $28 million from NRSC worth of airtime to boost him.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/mcconnell-allies-launch-ad-blitz-prop-jd-vances-senate-campaign-ohio-rcna43755
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2022, 08:46:36 AM »

May actually nail Ryan's final vote share. Not that I ever bought this would be competitive in a midterm under a Dem WH. It's still OH after all and polling constantly overestimated Dems, especially with months out.

Safe R.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2022, 08:47:00 AM »

NRSC has to boost a candidate running in a state Trump won by 8 pts and your spinning this as a positive?
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #22 on: August 23, 2022, 08:57:21 AM »

May actually nail Ryan's final vote share. Not that I ever bought this would be competitive in a midterm under a Dem WH. It's still OH after all and polling constantly overestimated Dems, especially with months out.

Safe R.

Lol Ryan had the exact same lead two wks ago remember 46/41, it's not over with 70 days left

It's in the Database all OH polls now, if Ryan was leading two wks ago and it flipped it can flip back to Ryan it's not over by a long shot the Gov race is tracking Strickland v Portman 52/37

OH polling has a track record of overestimating Dems over the summer or with weeks to go before the election. At the end of the summer, numbers began to shift and still underestimated the GOP.

I think this is the usual polling shift and Vance will end up winning by at least 6 pts. I predict ~53-46%.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #23 on: August 23, 2022, 11:10:29 AM »
« Edited: August 23, 2022, 02:18:55 PM by Brittain33 »

The cavalry is on the way for JD Vance

Cavalry or calvary?
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: August 23, 2022, 02:00:11 PM »

Vance is a rubber stamp for tax cuts he's a millionaire just like all politicians but Rs are against Entitlement spending except for stimulus checks and those are over
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