Which is better for McCarthy - 218 Rs or 217 Rs in January 2023?

[Brittain33]

As a Democrat, watching McCarthy try to be Speaker with a majority of 1 would be absolutely hysterical and would help Dems in 2024.

Which has me asking, would he be better in the long run with Pelosi or Jeffries trying to govern a similarly narrow majority?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

That's insane. 

McCarthy has no interest in governing, he just wants to stop Democrats.  He would be much, much, more effective at doing that with a slim majority. 

It wouldn't matter at all if Republicans can't actually accomplish anything legislatively; even with a decent majority, they wouldn't be able to do much with a Democratic Senate and President.  They -would- be able to launch investigations with a slim majority, which is more important to the GOP priorities of pure expressive politics anyway.

[ultraviolet]

Obviously 218

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't know what H we're gonna get its a range H Jeffries already said he will be Speaker we can get 235/210RH and 51/56 D Senate seats so an R H isn't inevitable but a D Senate is inevitable because if PA replaced GA due to GA runoff it's still 50 seats but we're gonna win WI that's 51

I keep saying this that ab R H isn't inevitable like a D Senate the D's are overperformed in OH, NC and FL Senate races and just yesterday Nan W is tied with DeWine but Abbott and DeSantis will both win

That's because Ryan is tearing up the Airwaves the most likely red state to flip back blue in 24 is OH because Sherrod Brown is gonna win

Also, it's still 90 days to get our H majority together

[ProgressiveModerate]

You bring up an interesting point cause I really do wonder how dysfunctional a 218-217 House in either direction would be, especially since any one member retiring or dying would have huge implications.

[Progressive Pessimist]

You bring up an interesting point cause I really do wonder how dysfunctional a 218-217 House in either direction would be, especially since any one member retiring or dying would have huge implications.

Times are crazy enough where I wouldn't be surprised if this happens.

[ProgressiveModerate]

You bring up an interesting point cause I really do wonder how dysfunctional a 218-217 House in either direction would be, especially since any one member retiring or dying would have huge implications.

Times are crazy enough where I wouldn't be surprised if this happens.

It’s bound to happen sooner or later.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

218 R if I had to guess, because he at least can argue that he won them back a majority.

[Minnesota Mike]

You bring up an interesting point cause I really do wonder how dysfunctional a 218-217 House in either direction would be, especially since any one member retiring or dying would have huge implications.

Would Republicans do away with proxy voting if they hold a slim majority? They have railed against it and said they will eliminate it if they get the majority but much easier to function as a majority if you are not taking attendance every 5 minutes. .

[Orser67]

Obviously Republicans in general would prefer 218, but I think that would be an extremely difficult situation for McCarthy, who I also don't think is a particularly talented or well-liked congressional leader. Imagine having to win the vote of every single member of the Freedom Caucus and the Tuesday Group every time you want to pass a bill without relying on Democrats. Even just winning the Speaker contest could require some difficult promises.

With that said, not having a trifecta would at least take off a lot of pressure to actually govern. Also the retirement or defeat of moderate members of Congress might somewhat help in terms of making the caucus more unified.

[7,052,770]

Imagine a 218-217 House either way, where the House can flip on any special election.

[Sestak]

If McCarthy doesn’t manage to win the House this fall there’s surely no way he somehow manages to stay on as leader.

[Sir Mohamed]

217 because any 218-217 House would be a hot mess, especially the speaker election. Obviously McCarthy would never get 100% of his conference, leaving him greatly damaged. On the other hand, if Dems get 218, he could sit back and watch things unfold.

[Torie]

The OP question posited I think may well have a tacit erroneous assumption embedded in it, to wit, that if 218 Pubs are elected to the House, that McCarthy will be elected speaker. I will leave it at that for the moment, other than to say, it would be a wet dream for me to be one of those 218 R's, trust me.  

[politicallefty]

The answer is obvious. Pelosi could almost certainly work miracles with a 218D-217R House. The biggest danger would be vacancies.

217 because any 218-217 House would be a hot mess, especially the speaker election. Obviously McCarthy would never get 100% of his conference, leaving him greatly damaged. On the other hand, if Dems get 218, he could sit back and watch things unfold.

Pelosi would find a way with 218. Don't ever underestimate her.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The OP question posited I think may well have an tacit erroneous assumption embedded in it, to wit, that if 218 Pubs are elected to the House, that McCarthy will be elected speaker. I will leave it at that for the moment, other than to say, it would be a wet dream for me to be one of those 218 R's, trust me. 

OK, but if Republicans somehow win less than 218 seats, it’s hard to see how McCarthy remains minority leader.