WA SEN McLaughlin: Murray leads by 6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1560614489120071680?t=bj_n5Y59CwAEL6g5qyyb9g&s=19

MURRAY D-INC 49
Smiley  43

[GeorgiaModerate]

Link: https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/WA-Jordan-PPT-08-17-22.pdf

August 15-17, 500 LV

[Xing]

Guess not every poll will underestimate Republicans, at least not in every state.

[Sir Mohamed]

Guess not every poll will underestimate Republicans, at least not in every state.

Somehow, many polls generally tend to underestimate the dominant party in safe states, especially with months to go before the election happens. Similar picture in NY and - during previous cycles - CA. Or KY in reverse. Perhaps this can be attributed by some parts of the respective base uneasy, but ultimately come home as the election nears.

[RI]

43 feels about right for Smiley.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I rarely mock polls that are optimistic for Republicans anymore, because I've been burned too many times in the past, but having Murray polling lower than she got in the first round two weeks ago seems a little nonsensical.

[UncleSam]

I do think it’ll be slightly closer than the first round, but I doubt Murray ends up with merely what she got in the first round (52.5% or so), which is what this poll indicates. Probably Murray +10-15 in the end imo, could be slightly closer in a perfect storm for Rs but no chance it flips.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Murray 51/46

[Minnesota Mike]

The 2 party WA Sen primary vote was 57D - 43R. Since WA instituted top two this has been a very accurate predictor of the Nov election. An 8 point swing to the right would be I believe unprecedented.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Washington Senator by Other Source on 2022-08-17

Summary: D: 49%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details