PA-08 (GQR-Cartwright internal): Cartwright +6

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000182-a70a-d10b-a1bb-ff2ed8050000

August 2-9, 500 LV

Matt Cartwright (D, inc) 52
Jim Bognet (R) 46

[soundchaser]

Obviously take an internal with a grain of salt, but this would be a better results than 2020's.

[wbrocks67]

If you adjust this, you likely get about Cartwright's 2020 result which would be interesting but not surprising, given that Bognet already lost the first round and as of right now - results are looking quite similar to 2020s.

I don't think he'll win by 6, however Bognet's bad internal from right before Dobbs also confirmed that this is Cartwright's race to lose.

[wbrocks67]

I'm rather confused at this take.

"Cartwright, a known incumbent, is ahead of Bognet, who is also known, and has been running ads for months now without any response from Bognet, but yes as soon Bognet starts running ads (when will that be?) he will 100% take the lead!"

Just seems nonsensical at this point. If anything, Cartwright has been able to boost himself and hurt Bognet for months and we're supposed to believe that's supposed to change just bc Bognet starts airing some ads?

https://twitter.com/HWLavelleMaps/status/1559564138032111616

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Cartwright being both a member of the Progressive Caucus and the representative for an increasingly Republican district is low-key awesome.

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm rather confused at this take.

"Cartwright, a known incumbent, is ahead of Bognet, who is also known, and has been running ads for months now without any response from Bognet, but yes as soon Bognet starts running ads (when will that be?) he will 100% take the lead!"

Just seems nonsensical at this point. If anything, Cartwright has been able to boost himself and hurt Bognet for months and we're supposed to believe that's supposed to change just bc Bognet starts airing some ads?

https://twitter.com/HWLavelleMaps/status/1559564138032111616

I feel like every cycle there's some Election Twitter outfit that gets extremely confident in their model and defends it in the face of any evidence to the contrary. Last time it was Scrimshaw, this time it's the Split Ticket guys. I respect them and they have some good takes here and there but they shouldn't get too cocky.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm taking this with a heaping helping of salt, but if this ends up true in November I think Cartwright might be our Fitzpatrick.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

An old Elections Guy post said that if Cartwright wins, Democrats keep the House. Is this indeed the bellwether seat for the evening?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Old School and MT Treasure or Politician aren't posting you know Rs are Doomed they have been posting non stop about how 22 is gonna be a 2010)14 Eday because of Biden 42 PERCENT but they have been posting in USD threads avoiding this thread on.purose the Rs are losing

[GALeftist]

I'm taking this with a heaping helping of salt, but if this ends up true in November I think Cartwright might be our Fitzpatrick.

Soul for a soul. I want to believe

[wesmoorenerd]

An old Elections Guy post said that if Cartwright wins, Democrats keep the House. Is this indeed the bellwether seat for the evening?

I think OH-13 and CO-08 have good claims as bellwether seats, as both are open seats with solid candidates on both sides that are very close to the median seat by baseline partisanship.

[Senator Incitatus]

An old Elections Guy post said that if Cartwright wins, Democrats keep the House. Is this indeed the bellwether seat for the evening?

It is definitely a good place to watch early in the evening.

Anyway, I'm really taking this with a grain of salt. Even if this is a neutral national environment, Cartwright could be done in by trends alone. Bognet isn't a particularly great candidate, but I still give him the edge.

[S019]

I honestly don’t think Democrats hold on here and this is a seat where trends for them are awful, the poll is nice, but it’s still only one poll.

[wbrocks67]

Of note as well, Democrats narrowly outvoted Republicans in the primary, despite GOP side being competitive and Dem side not.

[ctherainbow]

Folks outside the district truly do not understand the level of name recognition the man has.  I grew up just north of his district, but in the same media market, and for a decade before he ran for Congress, he was part of the family of attorneys at Munley, Munley, and Cartwright, who advertised INCESSANTLY on the airwaves.  I could still quote you their commercials line by line almost 20 years later.

I would not be shocked at all to see Matt return to Congress.

[Pericles]

Trump did only win by 4 points here, even if Biden got a hometown bounce this isn't the same kind of district as those blue dog districts from 2010 and 2014. Cartwright isn't DOA but he does need a decent environment too.