MI-GOV (Fabrizio/Impact/AARP): Whitmer +5

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1560253741273604096

[Sir Mohamed]

So if Dixon can only get within 5 pts in an internal and Whitmer is at 51%, the race is Likely D.

[wbrocks67]

Problem for Dixon here is that she's not that well known and already underwater, and given that she has no $ and Dems/Whitmer are hammering her in ads right now, can't see that improving anytime soon.

[wbrocks67]

So if Dixon can only get within 5 pts in an internal and Whitmer is at 51%, the race is Likely D.

Not an internal, AARP commissioned both for a 'bipartisan' team

[Sir Mohamed]

So if Dixon can only get within 5 pts in an internal and Whitmer is at 51%, the race is Likely D.

Not an internal, AARP commissioned both for a 'bipartisan' team

I just read (R), LOL. The margin is probably around the minimum for Whitmer.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’d say this is simultaneously a good poll for R’s and also more evidence of a currently neutral environment. Bad because D’s probably hold the house if they are winning the vote in Michigan, good that this state hasn’t slipped away yet and it’s still tightly contested. Whitmer is also proving to be stronger than a bunch of other incumbent democrats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’d say this is simultaneously a good poll for R’s and also more evidence of a currently neutral environment. Bad because D’s probably hold the house if they are winning the vote in Michigan, good that this state hasn’t slipped away yet and it’s still tightly contested. Whitmer is also proving to be stronger than a bunch of other incumbent democrats

It's not a Neutral Environment Beasley, Demings and in some polls Ryan are ahead because the GCB hass D's up 46/42 Biden low Approvals are a factor but because Trump gas low Approvals in the same states ut won't matter about D's losing

Anyways Blk and females and white women vote just asuch as white men some users forget about us

Steve Konraki has NV, AZ, OH Sen, FL and NC as Tossups and PA and WI as Lean D

If Mary Peltola cane close in AK and she was supposed to be a distant third it's a blue wave 👋👋👋

You told me NC isn't a Tossup or Lean D, it was likely R Beasley is tied 42/42 in an R internal  that's not Likely R

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

That looks more realistic than Whitmer + 20
Hot take- If Whitmer is winning, especially by 5 pts, AZ/PA already went D

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously much more believable than Whitmer +15-40 fantasy polling or whatever. Still not sure why +5 is supposed to be "the minimum" margin for Whitmer or why people think she’s going to outperform Biden substantially. There’s also no way she’s even close to "safe" in a state like MI.

I maintain that Whitmer is one of the most overrated Democratic candidates this year, and it’s not like there’s no competition.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obviously much more believable than Whitmer +10-30 or whatever. Still not sure why +5 is supposed to be "the minimum" margin for Whitmer or why people think she’s going to outperform Biden substantially. There’s also no way she’s even close to "safe" in a state like MI.

I maintain that Whitmer is one of the most overrated Democratic candidates this year, and it’s not like there’s no competition.

The very existence of Whitmer up by double digit polls is good news for her. Of course, the margin is much likelier to be smaller than that, but a win is a win.

[President Johnson]

Actually a believeable result. The 55-43% prediction on Fivethirtyeight is probably a little too bullish. I expect something like 52-46%.

[Xing]

Certainly more believable than her doing better than in 2018. Whitmer isn’t out of the woods yet, though it is good news for her that she’s above water (and just above 50%) in a poll that has Biden’s approval at -16. These sorts of decent results would be harder to believe if they had Biden’s approval well above the national numbers, which would simply not add up in a state like Michigan.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Given the pattern for elections involving Covid hawk governors, this isn't a good poll for Whitmer. She's lucky her opponent is crazy and will likely say 22 stupid things between now and November.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm fine with this poll. It may have a more grounded result for Whitmer, if it pans out, but it also does suggest that she is still favored. I mean, anyone who thought she could replicate her margin from 2018 was deluding themselves. I'll take this, and Michigan is still alongside Pennsylvania as the two battleground states whose statewide elections I am feeling the most confident about.

I am curious how the abortion referendum can possibly change things too. I don't know if polls can capture how that might alter turnout patterns, and that will likely be to Whitmer's benefit.