Which do you believe is true?

[Schiff for Senate]

Seems to me one of these has to be true. I think it could be a combination of both, though with a slight lean toward the first second option.

I would say this.

Democrats have obviously gotten a boost since Roe got overturned (I'm not just talking about Roe being overturned, but also all the other Dark Brandon stuff that's happened since, too), but polls will likely underestimate the GOP in the end, as usual. Voted option 2 though 3 applies too.

[Schiff for Senate]

Both. It's looking like it won't be a Republican blowout but Democrats still will lose the house, though even that looks like it might just be a 20 seat gain rather than a 40 seat one.

Agreed.

[Schiff for Senate]

Somewhere in between.

I expect the actual results to be drastically different to the polling in recent weeks, which honestly suggests a blue wave environment..

Currently expecting R +2-3

But the results don't indicate a "blue wave" though. A lot of this polling is nearly completely due to GOP nominating horrific candidates in almost every major contest. People really acting like that doesn't have something to do with all of this? Yes, when you nominate sh*tty candidates across the board, sometimes the results WILL make it look like a blue wave when it actuality a lot of it has to do with candidate quality. Dobbs and everything has obviously played a huge decision, but the GOP played itself this entire election season with these candidates...

Paging PA-GOV 2014, which PA-GOV 2022 is looking somewhat similar to. It was a purple state in a red wave, but the GOP candidate (Gov. Tom Corbett) was a very unpopular incumbent, and the Democratic candidate (Tom Wolf) was fairly strong, and candidate quality won the day decisively, with Democrats winning by 10 points.