Which do you believe is true?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Lean towards 1.

Things have improved for Democrats and will continue to improve - their messaging is a little better as they passed a bill, the cost of living crisis is getting a bit easier, and the GOP worsened material conditions via Dobbs. Biden's approval rating is now above its nadir - while polling could well have gotten worse since 2020, I doubt H2H polling suddenly declined in quality after 2021.

However, we're talking about things getting somewhat better from a position of 'absolute sh**tshow', even if the polls were about as bad as they were in 2020. Republicans are still favoured to flip the Senate and extremely likely to flip the House. I will no longer say the House is safe R, which I believed for a few months earlier in this year. I wouldn't call the scale of the Republican win I am predicting a "red wave", but I didn't see the 2018 results as a blue wave, either. Polarisation probably means what would once produce waves can now only make ripples.