Which do you believe is true?

[wbrocks67]

Somewhere in between.

I expect the actual results to be drastically different to the polling in recent weeks, which honestly suggests a blue wave environment..

Currently expecting R +2-3

But the results don't indicate a "blue wave" though. A lot of this polling is nearly completely due to GOP nominating horrific candidates in almost every major contest. People really acting like that doesn't have something to do with all of this? Yes, when you nominate sh*tty candidates across the board, sometimes the results WILL make it look like a blue wave when it actuality a lot of it has to do with candidate quality. Dobbs and everything has obviously played a huge decision, but the GOP played itself this entire election season with these candidates...

[wbrocks67]

Somewhere in between.

I expect the actual results to be drastically different to the polling in recent weeks, which honestly suggests a blue wave environment..

Currently expecting R +2-3

But the results don't indicate a "blue wave" though. A lot of this polling is nearly completely due to GOP nominating horrific candidates in almost every major contest. People really acting like that doesn't have something to do with all of this? Yes, when you nominate sh*tty candidates across the board, sometimes the results WILL make it look like a blue wave when it actuality a lot of it has to do with candidate quality. Dobbs and everything has obviously played a huge decision, but the GOP played itself this entire election season with these candidates...

Fetterman +18 and Barnes +7 is most definitely blue wave territory.. I'm not sure you can suggest different.

Literally read the post right above yours. Guess Tom Wolf was a blue wave in 2014 too!

[wbrocks67]

Somewhere in between.

I expect the actual results to be drastically different to the polling in recent weeks, which honestly suggests a blue wave environment..

Currently expecting R +2-3

But the results don't indicate a "blue wave" though. A lot of this polling is nearly completely due to GOP nominating horrific candidates in almost every major contest. People really acting like that doesn't have something to do with all of this? Yes, when you nominate sh*tty candidates across the board, sometimes the results WILL make it look like a blue wave when it actuality a lot of it has to do with candidate quality. Dobbs and everything has obviously played a huge decision, but the GOP played itself this entire election season with these candidates...

Fetterman +18 and Barnes +7 is most definitely blue wave territory.. I'm not sure you can suggest different.

Literally read the post right above yours. Guess Tom Wolf was a blue wave in 2014 too!

False equivalence as I'm sure you're aware.. Corbett was a particularly unpopular governor and obviously it's particularly easier for a gov race to not become nationalized.. unlike a senate general.

Anyway Corbett lost by 9.. not exactly comparable to 18 points is it.

Stop being so obsessed with one poll. No one thinks Fetterman is gonna win by 18 and no single poll is infallible. That's why we average them out.

[wbrocks67]

Also, why do some people believe that some polling is true or some polling is not? It's not infallible of course, but current polling also has Biden's approvals still considerably in the tank. So it's not like these are some constantly D-heavy polls coming out.

Now if you were getting Fetterman +18 polls with also Biden +10 approvals in PA or something then you could argue okay something is clearly wrong here, but the same polls that are producing margins like Barnes +7 are also churning out Biden -15 approvals.

Not just that, but the GCB average right now is pretty much aligning with a lot of what we're seeing in special elections, WA results, etc.

Polling can always be off, but I don't see evidence in what we do know that there is some major glaring issue that is definitely wrong right now...